Recent news events have brought back to my mind the quote from bible, which I am paraphrasing here for purpose of my article – “The Govt. giveth and the Govt. taketh away”. This week started with health ministry’s proposal to raise taxes on cigarettes which took its toll on ITC share. Then, Food ministry moved in to provide relief to mill owners and the farmers they owe money to (in tune of $1.3bn) by raising the import duty. The week ended with FM extending excise duty concessions to auto, capital goods and consumer sector. But the relief to the investors ended soon as govt. deferred the gas price hike by another three months.
As we all know, the next catalyst is new govt.’s budget on July 10. All eyes are on FM now. Investors are cautious as markets is looking at a pro-growth and reform budget. On July 10, it will be clear to everyone how new FM has managed between subsidies, taxation, inflation, rising crude oil prices, threat of weaker monsoon and El-Nino (read about it here).
Sensex and Nifty ended this week flat while Midcap up by 2.7%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade lower led by ITC, which declined by more than 6% - most in ten months when health minister muted the idea of raising taxes on cigarettes. The worry over Iraq crisis has not abetted and Brent crude continue to hover around $115 a barrel. On the other hand, govt.’s move to raise import duty on imports from 15% to 40% led to rally in sugar stocks.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade lower led by ITC, which declined by more than 6% - most in ten months after health minister muted the idea of raising taxes on cigarettes. The worry over Iraq crisis has not abetted and Brent crude continue to hover around $115 a barrel. Govt.’s move to raise import duty on imports from 15% to 40% led to rally in sugar stocks.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex and Nifty fell again as rising crude oil worries, deficient monsoon add to the expectation of higher inflation in near term. There was a brief rally in auto stocks after FM extended excise duty concessions to the sector.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Benchmark indices ended lower led by upstream oil and gas companies after govt.’s move to defer the gas price hike for the next three months. However, capital goods and auto stocks gained after govt. extended excise duty concessions for automobiles, consumer and capital goods by six months to Dec. 31. Also, overseas investors sold shares worth INR6.0bn ($101mn) on Thursday, marking their biggest single day of sales since Mar 10.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex and Nifty gained slightly as Sun Pharma jumped on the U.S. regulator's approval for a key drug while IT stocks gained after Accenture reported robust quarterly revenue growth. Gail India declined by 0.7% after a blast at a gas pipeline in Andhra Pradesh killed 14 people and injured 20 rising concerns over safety of gas infra all over country.
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 19, 2014 - May 23, 2014
As dust settles on election results, investors now keenly wait for the formation of new government structure, which PM elect Narendra Modi has indicated would be small and compact. Investors are all excited and the sentiment on the street is quite bullish – midcap gained more than 10% this week, largely due to strong performance from domestics. Also, see this chart.
Modi will take the oath of PM office on Monday along with his cabinet (hopefully) and we may see return of Arun Shourie to mainstream politics. He was widely known for his portfolio of disinvestment minister – when he ushered in slashing govt stakes from key companies in a bid to make them less bureaucratic, less corrupt and more competitive and efficient.
There are huge expectations with new govt, which has won this election on the agenda of development and reforms. A Reuters report cited this week that finance ministry is working on a proposal to cut welfare spending and reining in fiscal deficit to 3.8-3.9% of GDP in its first budget – hopefully will be presented in July. In my view, it is a prudent step – not only it will make govt. more fiscally responsible, it will also have a long-term impact on inflation.
Sensex ended this week up by 2.4% while Nifty was up by 2.3% and Midcap up by 10.2%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 4.4%
Markets continued their journey upwards, with Sensex and Nifty on their record-breaking spree. The domestics remained the central attraction to investors and sustained their rally. Gains were capped with exporters such as IT majors and pharma falling as rupee strengthened against the dollar.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Strong performance by domestics and midcaps continued as cabinet formation days draws nearer.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Finally, benchmark indices took some breather as blue chips such as L&T retreated from recent strong gains a day after foreign investors turned net sellers for the first time in about a month.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Expectations that Coal India might get split into smaller companies, led to a rally in the stock. The Nifty closed at a record high as investors resumed buying stocks of companies expected to benefit from an economic recovery. Titan surged after RBI allowed banks to provide gold loans to jewellery makers.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 2.0%
Markets rallied after SBI surged 10% after reporting decline in bad loans indicating worse may be over for banking sector in terms of asset quality. There was some rally in power stocks in expectations of reform measure from incoming government.
Modi will take the oath of PM office on Monday along with his cabinet (hopefully) and we may see return of Arun Shourie to mainstream politics. He was widely known for his portfolio of disinvestment minister – when he ushered in slashing govt stakes from key companies in a bid to make them less bureaucratic, less corrupt and more competitive and efficient.
There are huge expectations with new govt, which has won this election on the agenda of development and reforms. A Reuters report cited this week that finance ministry is working on a proposal to cut welfare spending and reining in fiscal deficit to 3.8-3.9% of GDP in its first budget – hopefully will be presented in July. In my view, it is a prudent step – not only it will make govt. more fiscally responsible, it will also have a long-term impact on inflation.
Sensex ended this week up by 2.4% while Nifty was up by 2.3% and Midcap up by 10.2%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 4.4%
Markets continued their journey upwards, with Sensex and Nifty on their record-breaking spree. The domestics remained the central attraction to investors and sustained their rally. Gains were capped with exporters such as IT majors and pharma falling as rupee strengthened against the dollar.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Strong performance by domestics and midcaps continued as cabinet formation days draws nearer.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Finally, benchmark indices took some breather as blue chips such as L&T retreated from recent strong gains a day after foreign investors turned net sellers for the first time in about a month.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Expectations that Coal India might get split into smaller companies, led to a rally in the stock. The Nifty closed at a record high as investors resumed buying stocks of companies expected to benefit from an economic recovery. Titan surged after RBI allowed banks to provide gold loans to jewellery makers.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 2.0%
Markets rallied after SBI surged 10% after reporting decline in bad loans indicating worse may be over for banking sector in terms of asset quality. There was some rally in power stocks in expectations of reform measure from incoming government.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 12, 2014 - May 16, 2014
This week there was only one thing that moved the markets: Modi wave. This chart below will tells us the performance of domestic stories vis-à-vis external ones since Narendra Modi was declared PM candidate from BJP. Nifty has surged 23% with domestics gaining 38% vs 9% gain in externals since that fateful day in September 2013.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 5.0% and Midcap up by 5.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 2.4%, Nifty up by 2.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets continued to roll over as exit polls results indicated strong performance of BJP led coalition. Rally in stocks with domestic story speaks about the confidence in BJP led govt to revive investment climate. Rupee also hits its one-month high against the dollar as FIIs consolidated their position in expectation of a strong rally on the result day Friday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 2.1%
BSE Sensex soared and touched its lifetime high of 24,068.94 as euphoria over expected BJP govt win continued. Domestic growth oriented stocks such as BHEL and ONGC rallied 10% and 4% respectively. Bank Nifty hit its record high.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.6%
Market took a breather after rallying in three consecutive sessions as investors resort to book some profits ahead of result announcement on Friday. There was a brief rally in PSU banks after RBI appointed committee proposed that govt should divest its stake below 50%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Market saw some bullish momentum as investors took position ahead of result announcement day. Market is widely expecting NDA to get majority tomorrow and any tally less than 240 may spark some sell-off.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 2.1%
BSE Sensex and Nifty surged to record highs of 25,375.63 and 7,563.50 respectively as BJP delivered its best ever performance and recorded a win on 282 seats alone. As trends became clear, rupee also rallied against the dollar and touched its 11-month high. Sensex had a wild day with a swing of more than 1,500 points between high and low.
Monday - Sensex up by 2.4%, Nifty up by 2.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets continued to roll over as exit polls results indicated strong performance of BJP led coalition. Rally in stocks with domestic story speaks about the confidence in BJP led govt to revive investment climate. Rupee also hits its one-month high against the dollar as FIIs consolidated their position in expectation of a strong rally on the result day Friday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 2.1%
BSE Sensex soared and touched its lifetime high of 24,068.94 as euphoria over expected BJP govt win continued. Domestic growth oriented stocks such as BHEL and ONGC rallied 10% and 4% respectively. Bank Nifty hit its record high.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.6%
Market took a breather after rallying in three consecutive sessions as investors resort to book some profits ahead of result announcement on Friday. There was a brief rally in PSU banks after RBI appointed committee proposed that govt should divest its stake below 50%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Market saw some bullish momentum as investors took position ahead of result announcement day. Market is widely expecting NDA to get majority tomorrow and any tally less than 240 may spark some sell-off.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 2.1%
BSE Sensex and Nifty surged to record highs of 25,375.63 and 7,563.50 respectively as BJP delivered its best ever performance and recorded a win on 282 seats alone. As trends became clear, rupee also rallied against the dollar and touched its 11-month high. Sensex had a wild day with a swing of more than 1,500 points between high and low.
Sunday, April 6, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 31, 2014 - Apr 4, 2014
Elections are coming. This week was a crucial week for the market as it recorded the all time highs our benchmark indices have achieved. This week was also crucial, as its performance will be benchmarked against for comparison in near to medium term to analyze the hope rally. This week also marks the end of wait for the biggest exercise in world’s biggest democracy to begin. The results of this exercise will probably tell the investors – and rest of the country that whether optimism and hope rally did really have any strong legs or was it just another bubble based on euphoria around Narendra Modi.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week flat while Midcap was up by 1.5%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Indian stocks benchmark indices went up slightly and closed the fiscal year 2014 close to 20% higher than 2013 as strong foreign buying sparked a rally in stocks leveraged to domestic story. Market also expects RBI governor to hold interest rates on coming review meeting on Apr 1.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Sensex and Nifty continued to record new highs as RBI left interest rates unchanged and brought a relief to investors by saying that it may avoid any more policy tightening in near term.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.5%
BSE Sensex touched another high on the back of heavy FII buying and election commission allowing RBI to grant new bank licenses. Potential bank license candidates led the gainers with IDFC and LIC Housing Finance surging 4% and 5% respectively.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Benchmark indices retreated from their all time highs as caution eclipse the optimism in the market as five-week election process draws closer. Investors booked profits as earnings season is also about to kick off with Infosys announcing its results on Apr 15.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap flat
Market turned to profit booking on the last day of trading before election process begins (on Monday). IMF released a report saying that India’s economic mess is due to internal issues, strongly refuting the UPA govt’s claims blaming external macroeconomic environment for India’s problems.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week flat while Midcap was up by 1.5%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Indian stocks benchmark indices went up slightly and closed the fiscal year 2014 close to 20% higher than 2013 as strong foreign buying sparked a rally in stocks leveraged to domestic story. Market also expects RBI governor to hold interest rates on coming review meeting on Apr 1.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Sensex and Nifty continued to record new highs as RBI left interest rates unchanged and brought a relief to investors by saying that it may avoid any more policy tightening in near term.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.5%
BSE Sensex touched another high on the back of heavy FII buying and election commission allowing RBI to grant new bank licenses. Potential bank license candidates led the gainers with IDFC and LIC Housing Finance surging 4% and 5% respectively.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Benchmark indices retreated from their all time highs as caution eclipse the optimism in the market as five-week election process draws closer. Investors booked profits as earnings season is also about to kick off with Infosys announcing its results on Apr 15.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap flat
Market turned to profit booking on the last day of trading before election process begins (on Monday). IMF released a report saying that India’s economic mess is due to internal issues, strongly refuting the UPA govt’s claims blaming external macroeconomic environment for India’s problems.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 24, 2014 - Mar 28, 2014
Indian markets continued to zoom ahead as its peers in BRIC group faltered. Global investors – in search of better yields, seems to have gone full throttle on India in 2014 due to lack of other potential investment candidates.
Indian rupee has turned around dramatically in past eight months from being the worst performer among emerging market currencies to be the best performer. Strong fund inflows, positive economic data, shrinking current account deficit as well as easing inflation has helped the rupee and equities to move up with vengeance.
Problem with Russian equities is quite well known as investors continue to avoid them as global powers call for economic sanctions on the country in aftermath of Crimea annexation.
Brazil is facing somewhat similar political situation as India where current government has disappointed investors with their reforms pace and structure and market is preparing for a potential transition in October elections.
China, on the other hand, is facing prospects of recording its weakest growth since global financial crisis as manufacturing continues to disappoint. China released preliminary March factory survey data on Monday, which showed that manufacturing shrank for the third straight month. This release followed weaker-than-expected industrial output figures for January and February and a shocking fall in exports. Chinese Premier has asked investors to prepare for a wave of bankruptcies in the country.
Sensex ended this week up 2.7% while Nifty was up by 3.1% and Midcap up by 4.4%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Benchmark indices opened the week in positive territory with banking sector leading the pack. Hope rally continued in the last week of March as investors bet on 3Rs: Reforms, Recovery and RBI.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.8%
Markets broadly continued their upward momentum as benchmark indices touch all time highs during the day. Oil and gas stocks corrected a bit as Election Commission took cognizance of issue of gas price hike and asked Centre to defer it.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
BSE Sensex continued its record-breaking steak and closed the day at all time high on the back of strong FIIs inflow. Rupee declined a bit as US recovery strengthens and PSU buy USD on behalf of RBI to prop up the reserve levels. However, sustained FII inflow restricted the decline in rupee value. Rupee is trading at its seven month ahead against the dollar.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.3%
BSE Sensex rose to another record high as banking stocks gain ahead of expected favorable RBI rate policy review on April 1 and expected decision on Base III norm. Street expects RBI to keep the interest rates unchanged in this meeting as inflation and deficit data is in RBI’s comfortable range.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 1.9%
Key benchmark indices finished the week at record high – fifth consecutive day of record close. Markets continued moving upwards as RBI extended the deadline by another year for banks to implement Basel III capital-raising rules. RBI extended the deadline to Mar 31, 2019 as banks raised concerns on potential stress to asset quality.
Indian rupee has turned around dramatically in past eight months from being the worst performer among emerging market currencies to be the best performer. Strong fund inflows, positive economic data, shrinking current account deficit as well as easing inflation has helped the rupee and equities to move up with vengeance.
Brazil is facing somewhat similar political situation as India where current government has disappointed investors with their reforms pace and structure and market is preparing for a potential transition in October elections.
China, on the other hand, is facing prospects of recording its weakest growth since global financial crisis as manufacturing continues to disappoint. China released preliminary March factory survey data on Monday, which showed that manufacturing shrank for the third straight month. This release followed weaker-than-expected industrial output figures for January and February and a shocking fall in exports. Chinese Premier has asked investors to prepare for a wave of bankruptcies in the country.
Sensex ended this week up 2.7% while Nifty was up by 3.1% and Midcap up by 4.4%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Benchmark indices opened the week in positive territory with banking sector leading the pack. Hope rally continued in the last week of March as investors bet on 3Rs: Reforms, Recovery and RBI.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.8%
Markets broadly continued their upward momentum as benchmark indices touch all time highs during the day. Oil and gas stocks corrected a bit as Election Commission took cognizance of issue of gas price hike and asked Centre to defer it.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
BSE Sensex continued its record-breaking steak and closed the day at all time high on the back of strong FIIs inflow. Rupee declined a bit as US recovery strengthens and PSU buy USD on behalf of RBI to prop up the reserve levels. However, sustained FII inflow restricted the decline in rupee value. Rupee is trading at its seven month ahead against the dollar.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.3%
BSE Sensex rose to another record high as banking stocks gain ahead of expected favorable RBI rate policy review on April 1 and expected decision on Base III norm. Street expects RBI to keep the interest rates unchanged in this meeting as inflation and deficit data is in RBI’s comfortable range.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 1.9%
Key benchmark indices finished the week at record high – fifth consecutive day of record close. Markets continued moving upwards as RBI extended the deadline by another year for banks to implement Basel III capital-raising rules. RBI extended the deadline to Mar 31, 2019 as banks raised concerns on potential stress to asset quality.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 17, 2014 - Mar 21, 2014
Indian markets continued to have volatile sessions ahead of Indian elections due to lack of any other strong catalysts. US Federal Reserve attempts to increase short-term interest rates sooner than expected led to markets around the globe moving nervously. Any decline in interest spread between US and emerging markets may lead to decline in potential opportunities for yield-searching investments.
Sensex ended this week down 0.3%, Nifty was down by 0.2% while CNX Midcap was up by 1.3%.
Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Holi
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices rose to their records highs but retreated later to settle almost flat. FIIs continue to put money in Indian blue chips ahead of Indian general elections. A small improvement in the industrial output and further lowering of inflation has also added to the positive mood on the street.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investor sentiment was subdued ahead of US Fed meeting later in the day. IT major TCS joined Infosys in flagging concerns about revenue growth in near term and indicated that growth could be weaker than previous quarters, which led to some profit booking in IT stocks.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Stocks ended lower as Fed chairperson Janet Yellen hinted at raising interest rates sooner than expected and will affect the yield seeking investments. Indian capital goods, financial, auto and all other interest rate sensitive stocks ended the day lower.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Benchmark indices continued their positive momentum but ended the week only a tad higher on last day of the week.
Sensex ended this week down 0.3%, Nifty was down by 0.2% while CNX Midcap was up by 1.3%.
Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Holi
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices rose to their records highs but retreated later to settle almost flat. FIIs continue to put money in Indian blue chips ahead of Indian general elections. A small improvement in the industrial output and further lowering of inflation has also added to the positive mood on the street.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investor sentiment was subdued ahead of US Fed meeting later in the day. IT major TCS joined Infosys in flagging concerns about revenue growth in near term and indicated that growth could be weaker than previous quarters, which led to some profit booking in IT stocks.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Stocks ended lower as Fed chairperson Janet Yellen hinted at raising interest rates sooner than expected and will affect the yield seeking investments. Indian capital goods, financial, auto and all other interest rate sensitive stocks ended the day lower.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Benchmark indices continued their positive momentum but ended the week only a tad higher on last day of the week.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
So where are we?
Interesting observation from Business Standard on past five year investment cycle in India.
"In the five years since the 2008 Lehman crisis, capital flow in equities and returns have followed a cycle. Immediately after the crisis, investors switched their focus to the domestic demand story, leading to a sharp rally in consumer goods and automobile companies. That story began to wane by early 2012 as the rupee began to depreciate, on account of a rising current account deficit and economic slowdown in India. Export or dollar revenue-driven companies in pharmaceuticals, information technology and some auto makers became the new darlings for equity investors.Read the full article here: Business Standard
The market has completed a full circle. In the past month, money has begun to flow to investment demand-driven stocks in capital goods, construction & infrastructure, real estate and banking, away from export-oriented sectors. The trigger has been an improvement in the current account deficit, rupee appreciation and expectation of a 'market-friendly' government after elections."
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 10, 2014 - Mar 14, 2014
Indian markets reported a weekly loss after ending three consecutive weeks in green. As expected, markets continued to stay volatile ahead of the elections, with somewhat positive momentum. It has been almost six months the key benchmark index, sensex trading above 20k level.
RBI review meeting on Apr 1 will be next key catalyst investors are focusing on. If RBI managed to cut rates, we may expect some more rally in cyclical especially banks and capital goods.
Sensex ended this week down 0.5%, Nifty was down by 0.3% while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9%.
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets continued their positive momentum and sensex traded above 22,000 level for a while and closing at its new record high. Investors continued to show interest in cyclicals while defensives act as source of funds. Market is expected to stay volatile in days ahead of the election with a focus on economic data release on trade deficit, IIP, CPI and WPI in the near term.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Profit booking across the sector led to benchmark indices losing some ground. The fall in trade deficit failed to bring cheer to the market as the data showed decline in exports. The trade deficit lowered to $8.13bn in Feb, which is lowest in past five months.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets closed at almost flat as investors keenly await inflation data release. Inflation and industrial output data are key determinants of RBI interest rate policy that will be up for discussion on April 1.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Benchmark indices climbed to their highs as govt releases inflation stats. Feb WPI inflation declined to 4.68% vs. 5.05% in Jan due to fall in vegetable and fuel prices. However, markets quickly gave up their gains as IT stocks declined after Infosys painted beak future of its business outlook. China’s missing of its industrial growth and retail sales target also add to the selling pressure in the markets.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Indian markets traded weaker during most of the day like their asian and European counterparts on fears that China may be slowing down and standoff on Ukrain may continue or even escalate. But value buying in key sensex and nifty stocks during the end of the day led the benchmark indices closing in the green.
RBI review meeting on Apr 1 will be next key catalyst investors are focusing on. If RBI managed to cut rates, we may expect some more rally in cyclical especially banks and capital goods.
Sensex ended this week down 0.5%, Nifty was down by 0.3% while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9%.
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets continued their positive momentum and sensex traded above 22,000 level for a while and closing at its new record high. Investors continued to show interest in cyclicals while defensives act as source of funds. Market is expected to stay volatile in days ahead of the election with a focus on economic data release on trade deficit, IIP, CPI and WPI in the near term.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Profit booking across the sector led to benchmark indices losing some ground. The fall in trade deficit failed to bring cheer to the market as the data showed decline in exports. The trade deficit lowered to $8.13bn in Feb, which is lowest in past five months.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets closed at almost flat as investors keenly await inflation data release. Inflation and industrial output data are key determinants of RBI interest rate policy that will be up for discussion on April 1.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Benchmark indices climbed to their highs as govt releases inflation stats. Feb WPI inflation declined to 4.68% vs. 5.05% in Jan due to fall in vegetable and fuel prices. However, markets quickly gave up their gains as IT stocks declined after Infosys painted beak future of its business outlook. China’s missing of its industrial growth and retail sales target also add to the selling pressure in the markets.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Indian markets traded weaker during most of the day like their asian and European counterparts on fears that China may be slowing down and standoff on Ukrain may continue or even escalate. But value buying in key sensex and nifty stocks during the end of the day led the benchmark indices closing in the green.
Saturday, March 8, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 3, 2014 - Mar 7, 2014
Both Sensex and Nifty ended this week at record all time highs. Investors, both domestic and foreign, are rushing in Indian markets to position themselves to benefit from an expected favorable election outcome. As I mentioned in my previous post, that favorable outcome is formation of stable NDA govt at the centre. With Congress losing its fight to retain prominence and AAP continues to use reality TV gimmicks to attract voters, NDA stock continues to rise.
As far as economics is concerned -- With India outperforming most of its emerging market peers in Feb, inflation declining, deficit numbers at four-year low and GDP growth bottoming out, India is definitely at a sweet spot.
Markets are expected to remain volatile in near term, as some people will book profits as markets rise while others will position themselves to benefit in a pre-election rally.
Sensex ended this week up 3.8%, Nifty was up by 4.0% while CNX Midcap was up by 4.1%.
Monday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.4%
War mongering in Ukraine sent investors’ mood around the world rolling down. World leaders unite in censuring the Russia’s move to send the forces in Crimea. Gold went up as fear and uncertainty rose. Indian markets ignored the improvement in HSBC PMI index – 52.5 in Feb vs. 51.4 in Jan, which indicated strongest manufacturing growth in last 12 months.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices bounced to their five-week highs as Russian President called back its troops back to their bases. Almost all sectoral indices ended up in green with cyclical leading the rally.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Markets continued their upward momentum. The benchmark Sensex closed just around 100 points away from its previous all time high. Investors have turned bullish ahead of general elections and have largely ignored the weakness in European markets.
Thursday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Benchmark indices soared past their earlier peak and set new record highs on the back of strong bullish investor sentiment as current account deficit numbers came at four-year low. With December CAD at 0.9% of GDP, exports picking up and gold imports subdued market is hopeful that the rupee will get a boost and FII inflows will increase.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Markets extended their winning streak and ended the week with all time record highs on the back of lower CAD numbers and increased fund flows from both domestic and foreign investors. Almost all indices ended the week in green barring IT and healthcare as investors churn their portfolios from export driven to domestic cyclical stories.
As far as economics is concerned -- With India outperforming most of its emerging market peers in Feb, inflation declining, deficit numbers at four-year low and GDP growth bottoming out, India is definitely at a sweet spot.
Markets are expected to remain volatile in near term, as some people will book profits as markets rise while others will position themselves to benefit in a pre-election rally.
Sensex ended this week up 3.8%, Nifty was up by 4.0% while CNX Midcap was up by 4.1%.
Monday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.4%
War mongering in Ukraine sent investors’ mood around the world rolling down. World leaders unite in censuring the Russia’s move to send the forces in Crimea. Gold went up as fear and uncertainty rose. Indian markets ignored the improvement in HSBC PMI index – 52.5 in Feb vs. 51.4 in Jan, which indicated strongest manufacturing growth in last 12 months.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices bounced to their five-week highs as Russian President called back its troops back to their bases. Almost all sectoral indices ended up in green with cyclical leading the rally.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Markets continued their upward momentum. The benchmark Sensex closed just around 100 points away from its previous all time high. Investors have turned bullish ahead of general elections and have largely ignored the weakness in European markets.
Thursday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Benchmark indices soared past their earlier peak and set new record highs on the back of strong bullish investor sentiment as current account deficit numbers came at four-year low. With December CAD at 0.9% of GDP, exports picking up and gold imports subdued market is hopeful that the rupee will get a boost and FII inflows will increase.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Markets extended their winning streak and ended the week with all time record highs on the back of lower CAD numbers and increased fund flows from both domestic and foreign investors. Almost all indices ended the week in green barring IT and healthcare as investors churn their portfolios from export driven to domestic cyclical stories.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Feb 17, 2014 - Feb 21, 2014
Markets cheered the vote-on-account. Some investors appreciated the excise duty cuts meant to boost the auto, manufacturing and capital goods sectors, while others celebrated FM meeting his fiscal deficit target of 4.8%. In fact, he has done better and achieved fiscal deficit of 4.6%. Sensex ended the week 300 points up.
However, if we look closely to the vote-on-account statements, we will observe that a lot of accounting talent has been put to use to fudge the numbers to meet the above target. FM postponed the subsidies; recorded revenues in advance; coaxed public sector companies like Coal India and few PSU banks into paying special dividends - harming the interest of their minority shareholders; moved money from one public company to another as in the case of IOC, where ONGC and Oil India will buy stake from govt.
Govt accounting has made Enron look good. Incoming govt will have an uphill task in getting the fiscal house in order.
Sensex ended this week up 1.6%, Nifty was up by 1.8% while CNX Midcap was up by 2.1%.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Markets recovered their lost ground during the closing as some buying emerged as air around the interim budget cleared. Govt move to reduce excise duty from 12% to 8% for small cars, bikes; from 30% to 24% for SUVs and; from 24% to 20% for mid segment cars came as a huge relief to reeling auto sector. Govt also reduce the excise duty for capital goods and consumer durables by 200 bps to provide a fillip to ailing manufacturing sector. FM’s accounting jugglery to meet fiscal deficit target helped India to escape the danger of rating cut from premier rating agencies.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Markets went up as the optimism from govt move to avoid the populism and provide a boost to certain sectors in the form of excise duty cuts improved the investor confidence. Banking sector stocks led the rally as expectations of turnaround in economy led to rise in expectations of more lending.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Benchmark indices continued to be buoyed by positive sentiment generated by vote-on-account. The gains were mainly on the back of overnight gains in the US market and sustained capital inflows from foreign funds.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Market had a pullback as China reported weak manufacturing data and US maintained its stand of tapering of quantitative easing.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Stocks went up as US factory activity accelerated at its fastest pace in four years in February leading to rise in firming up of all Asian markets.
However, if we look closely to the vote-on-account statements, we will observe that a lot of accounting talent has been put to use to fudge the numbers to meet the above target. FM postponed the subsidies; recorded revenues in advance; coaxed public sector companies like Coal India and few PSU banks into paying special dividends - harming the interest of their minority shareholders; moved money from one public company to another as in the case of IOC, where ONGC and Oil India will buy stake from govt.
Govt accounting has made Enron look good. Incoming govt will have an uphill task in getting the fiscal house in order.
Sensex ended this week up 1.6%, Nifty was up by 1.8% while CNX Midcap was up by 2.1%.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Markets recovered their lost ground during the closing as some buying emerged as air around the interim budget cleared. Govt move to reduce excise duty from 12% to 8% for small cars, bikes; from 30% to 24% for SUVs and; from 24% to 20% for mid segment cars came as a huge relief to reeling auto sector. Govt also reduce the excise duty for capital goods and consumer durables by 200 bps to provide a fillip to ailing manufacturing sector. FM’s accounting jugglery to meet fiscal deficit target helped India to escape the danger of rating cut from premier rating agencies.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Markets went up as the optimism from govt move to avoid the populism and provide a boost to certain sectors in the form of excise duty cuts improved the investor confidence. Banking sector stocks led the rally as expectations of turnaround in economy led to rise in expectations of more lending.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Benchmark indices continued to be buoyed by positive sentiment generated by vote-on-account. The gains were mainly on the back of overnight gains in the US market and sustained capital inflows from foreign funds.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Market had a pullback as China reported weak manufacturing data and US maintained its stand of tapering of quantitative easing.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Stocks went up as US factory activity accelerated at its fastest pace in four years in February leading to rise in firming up of all Asian markets.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Feb 10, 2014 - Feb 14, 2014
Highlights of this week will be the growing contrast between US economy, which has shown some strong signs of recovery in their economy, and Indian story, whose biggest facilitator public sector banks have started crumbling under the weight of increasing NPAs. The chance of some bank going under or requiring state assistance or bail-out have become very strong since United Bank of India story went out. State Bank of India’s weak results is indicator of how deep the mess is.
It is India’s worst kept secret that our public sector banks (and their investors) are suffering under crony capitalism –which reached its zenith under UPA regime. It is a high time now when our banking regulator – RBI may take a leaf out of its Governor Raghuram Rajan’s widely read book “Saving Capitalism from the Capitalist”- rolls up its sleeve and gets our banks out of clutches of this govt-crony nexus.
Sensex ended this week flat, Nifty was slightly down by 0.2% while CNX Midcap was down by 1.3%.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Markets continued their lackadaisical performance as earnings season continues without any major surprise. Investors continued to book profits on IT and banking sectors. Beginning of two-day nationwide strike by public sector bank staff also affected the trading on banking counters.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Indices rose slightly led by two Tata group companies. Tata motors rose the most in two months after its quarterly profit tripled. Tata Steel Ltd gained to its highest level in three weeks before its earnings report. The gains in Sensex were offset by fall in RIL shares after Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal filed an FIR against Mukesh Ambani.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap flat
Markets rallied after US Congress agreed to advance legislation extending US borrowing authority. Also, newly appointed Fed Chairman Janet Yellen held off from making any changes to tapering schedule set the Asian shares soaring.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 1.3%
Earnings disappointment in Cipla and Coal India stocks dragged the benchmark indices down. Also, govt released data indicated that industrial output contracted by 0.6% in December meaning all is still not well with the economy although retail inflation did ease to its two year low of 8.79%.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Sensex rose on last day of the week as some traders rushed to cover their shorts ahead of presentation of interim union budget next week. Meanwhile, January WPI numbers came at 5.05% vs. 6.2% in December, lower than ET-Now poll estimate of 5.5%.
It is India’s worst kept secret that our public sector banks (and their investors) are suffering under crony capitalism –which reached its zenith under UPA regime. It is a high time now when our banking regulator – RBI may take a leaf out of its Governor Raghuram Rajan’s widely read book “Saving Capitalism from the Capitalist”- rolls up its sleeve and gets our banks out of clutches of this govt-crony nexus.
Sensex ended this week flat, Nifty was slightly down by 0.2% while CNX Midcap was down by 1.3%.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Markets continued their lackadaisical performance as earnings season continues without any major surprise. Investors continued to book profits on IT and banking sectors. Beginning of two-day nationwide strike by public sector bank staff also affected the trading on banking counters.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Indices rose slightly led by two Tata group companies. Tata motors rose the most in two months after its quarterly profit tripled. Tata Steel Ltd gained to its highest level in three weeks before its earnings report. The gains in Sensex were offset by fall in RIL shares after Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal filed an FIR against Mukesh Ambani.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap flat
Markets rallied after US Congress agreed to advance legislation extending US borrowing authority. Also, newly appointed Fed Chairman Janet Yellen held off from making any changes to tapering schedule set the Asian shares soaring.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 1.3%
Earnings disappointment in Cipla and Coal India stocks dragged the benchmark indices down. Also, govt released data indicated that industrial output contracted by 0.6% in December meaning all is still not well with the economy although retail inflation did ease to its two year low of 8.79%.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Sensex rose on last day of the week as some traders rushed to cover their shorts ahead of presentation of interim union budget next week. Meanwhile, January WPI numbers came at 5.05% vs. 6.2% in December, lower than ET-Now poll estimate of 5.5%.
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Feb 3, 2014 - Feb 7, 2014
Indian investors seem to have become defensive, as no new strong catalysts seem to emerge before elections in May. In fact, some of them are worried that current establishment may play a populist card to garner as much voting support as it can. The 70,000 crores farm loan waiver that UPA govt doled out is still bleeding the public sector banks’ balance sheets.
FIIs are already closing out positions in India and are avoiding fresh positions till elections. They have cut their positions worth $340mn since US Fed decided to cut its stimulus package further by $10bn on Jan 29.
Indian markets are expected to be “source of fund” for FIIs in coming months as they put their money in other markets where current environment is more congenial.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with losses of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 0.8%.
Monday – Sensex down by 1.5%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Markets continued their weak performance from previous week with Sensex falling more than 300 points as China manufacturing slowdown coupled with US Fed’s cut in stimulus spending sent caution among the foreign investors across the globe.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.4%
Indices recovered a little as investors cover their shorts and some value emerged during the end of the day. FIIs continued to stay net sellers and are expected to avoid any fresh buying before elections.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets stayed beaten down with no fresh buying seen across most of the counters. Short covering led to the up movement in some of the indices stocks.
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Market inched towards its week high as FIIs turned net buyers. Bargain hunting is leading to small gains in the indices as Indian markets continues to practice caution like other emerging markets ahead of US non-farm payroll data.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Markets ended the day at its week high as all emerging markets took cue from small US rally previous day. US stocks rallied ahead of non-farm payrolls data as unemployment benefit applications declined which is as indications of improving labour market and US recovery.
FIIs are already closing out positions in India and are avoiding fresh positions till elections. They have cut their positions worth $340mn since US Fed decided to cut its stimulus package further by $10bn on Jan 29.
Indian markets are expected to be “source of fund” for FIIs in coming months as they put their money in other markets where current environment is more congenial.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with losses of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 0.8%.
Monday – Sensex down by 1.5%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Markets continued their weak performance from previous week with Sensex falling more than 300 points as China manufacturing slowdown coupled with US Fed’s cut in stimulus spending sent caution among the foreign investors across the globe.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.4%
Indices recovered a little as investors cover their shorts and some value emerged during the end of the day. FIIs continued to stay net sellers and are expected to avoid any fresh buying before elections.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets stayed beaten down with no fresh buying seen across most of the counters. Short covering led to the up movement in some of the indices stocks.
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Market inched towards its week high as FIIs turned net buyers. Bargain hunting is leading to small gains in the indices as Indian markets continues to practice caution like other emerging markets ahead of US non-farm payroll data.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Markets ended the day at its week high as all emerging markets took cue from small US rally previous day. US stocks rallied ahead of non-farm payrolls data as unemployment benefit applications declined which is as indications of improving labour market and US recovery.
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Jan 27, 2014 - Jan 31, 2014
RBI governor threw in a surprise again this week. He maintained the RBI’s stance of treating inflation as its enemy no.1 while increasing the repo rate to 8%. Street was expecting no change in interest rates, some even calling for a cut now with food inflation especially vegetable inflation coming down from recent highs. Last week Urijit Patel committee made a recommendation to RBI to replace WPI by CPI as inflation benchmark for calibrating further policy actions. It is too early to say whether RBI has indeed taken up these recommendations. If that is the case, we’ll see more rate hikes in near future to contain CPI inflation and get it under RBI’s comfort zone.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with losses of 2.9% and 2.8% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 1.6%.
Monday – Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 2.9%
Markets tumbled as investors pull out money across emerging markets before Fed tapering announcement. Fed is expected to make another cut in stimulus in Ben Bernanke’s last meeting as Fed chairman. Also, weak PMI data from China last week coupled with Argentina abandoning support of its currency peso on the open market, which led to its 15% slide, affected the investor sentiment.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.1%
After an onslaught on previous day, market’s attempts to recover, on the back of short coverings, was cut short by RBI’s decision to hike the repo rate by 25bps to 8%. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan defended his actions by claiming that growth cannot be had unless we have inflation totally under control. He pointed out that although CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has remained flat, WPI inflation excluding food and fuel has risen prompting a rate hike from RBI.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Investors stayed on the sidelines as Fed ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday with most economists expecting a further stimulus cut as US recovery shows signs of traction. The stimulus has led to FIIs pouring $20bn in India in 2013. Though Indian govt and central bank maintains that they are prepared to meet any challenge thrown in by Fed tapering, it would be highly likely that any tapering announcement will negatively affect all emerging markets including India.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 1.4%
And Fed did it again. Fed tapers another $10bn, signaling confidence that the US economy can stand on its own. This move had an expected negative impact on all emerging markets. Fed has indicated that it will keep on cutting its stimulus as recovery gains strength. Fed bond purchases now stands at $65bn a month.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 2.3%
Markets ended flat to slightly positive as investors recover from actions of Indian and US central banks. Indian markets closed January with a monthly loss of 3%, worst since Aug 2013.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with losses of 2.9% and 2.8% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 1.6%.
Monday – Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 2.9%
Markets tumbled as investors pull out money across emerging markets before Fed tapering announcement. Fed is expected to make another cut in stimulus in Ben Bernanke’s last meeting as Fed chairman. Also, weak PMI data from China last week coupled with Argentina abandoning support of its currency peso on the open market, which led to its 15% slide, affected the investor sentiment.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.1%
After an onslaught on previous day, market’s attempts to recover, on the back of short coverings, was cut short by RBI’s decision to hike the repo rate by 25bps to 8%. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan defended his actions by claiming that growth cannot be had unless we have inflation totally under control. He pointed out that although CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has remained flat, WPI inflation excluding food and fuel has risen prompting a rate hike from RBI.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Investors stayed on the sidelines as Fed ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday with most economists expecting a further stimulus cut as US recovery shows signs of traction. The stimulus has led to FIIs pouring $20bn in India in 2013. Though Indian govt and central bank maintains that they are prepared to meet any challenge thrown in by Fed tapering, it would be highly likely that any tapering announcement will negatively affect all emerging markets including India.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 1.4%
And Fed did it again. Fed tapers another $10bn, signaling confidence that the US economy can stand on its own. This move had an expected negative impact on all emerging markets. Fed has indicated that it will keep on cutting its stimulus as recovery gains strength. Fed bond purchases now stands at $65bn a month.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 2.3%
Markets ended flat to slightly positive as investors recover from actions of Indian and US central banks. Indian markets closed January with a monthly loss of 3%, worst since Aug 2013.
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Jan 20, 2014 - Jan 24, 2014
Investors were a cheerful lot for most of this week. So far, result season has been good, has been largely without any negative surprises. Dollar earning sectors seems to have picked up steam on hope of strengthening US recovery. Falling inflation levels have also brought back the rate cut clamour. Everything was good and normal until two important events happened. One, Urijit Patel tabled a report on strengthening monetary framework, which among other things recommended changing the inflation targeting benchmark to CPI from WPI. If this happens, it may lead to higher interest rates in near to medium term and may put a dampener on India’s growth plans (for short term). Two, RBI governor made statements to the effect of inflation fighting would be the main focus of RBI, which dashed hopes of rate cut in RBI review meeting on Jan 28.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with small gains of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 0.9%.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Market’s mood was cheerful as index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Wipro managed to beat consensus and post healthy results. Reliance fared better than street forecasts as its refinery earned $7.6 per barrel of crude refined, significantly better than Singapore GRMs (Gross Refining Margin) of $4.3. Shares went up initially but lost all its gains in the latter half of the day. Wipro ended the day up as its results showed that business continued to improve as signs of turnaround and margin expansions are growing.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Market continued its uptrend amid some profit booking seen on the bourses. Govt decision to sell stake in Hindustan Zinc to cover some of its fiscal deficit also helped to improve the sentiment.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Indices spurted to all time highs in latter half of the day as investors flocked to buy pharma, metal and banking stocks on expectations of strong corporate earnings and rate cut by the Reserve Bank.
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets continued their rally and closed at another record high as industry bellwether, L&T, which is widely considered the barometer of Indian economy, rose as much as 4% after reporting a 22% jump in standalone net profit for 3Q.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.2%, Midcap down by 1.8%
Indices snapped on last day of the week as RBI governor Raghuram Rajan calling inflation a “destructive disease” dashed hopes of investors expecting a rate cut in the review meeting. These comments bring RBI’s priorities to tackle inflation first before focusing on growth to the fore again. In another event, Ranbaxy’s stocks crashed 20% after US FSA banned the firm from shipping drugs from its Toansa plant. Weak global trend following poor economic data in the US and China dampened the market sentiment.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week with small gains of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while CNX Midcap fell 0.9%.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Market’s mood was cheerful as index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Wipro managed to beat consensus and post healthy results. Reliance fared better than street forecasts as its refinery earned $7.6 per barrel of crude refined, significantly better than Singapore GRMs (Gross Refining Margin) of $4.3. Shares went up initially but lost all its gains in the latter half of the day. Wipro ended the day up as its results showed that business continued to improve as signs of turnaround and margin expansions are growing.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Market continued its uptrend amid some profit booking seen on the bourses. Govt decision to sell stake in Hindustan Zinc to cover some of its fiscal deficit also helped to improve the sentiment.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Indices spurted to all time highs in latter half of the day as investors flocked to buy pharma, metal and banking stocks on expectations of strong corporate earnings and rate cut by the Reserve Bank.
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets continued their rally and closed at another record high as industry bellwether, L&T, which is widely considered the barometer of Indian economy, rose as much as 4% after reporting a 22% jump in standalone net profit for 3Q.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.2%, Midcap down by 1.8%
Indices snapped on last day of the week as RBI governor Raghuram Rajan calling inflation a “destructive disease” dashed hopes of investors expecting a rate cut in the review meeting. These comments bring RBI’s priorities to tackle inflation first before focusing on growth to the fore again. In another event, Ranbaxy’s stocks crashed 20% after US FSA banned the firm from shipping drugs from its Toansa plant. Weak global trend following poor economic data in the US and China dampened the market sentiment.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Jan 13, 2014 - Jan 17, 2014
Low inflation numbers came as a respite to both Indian consumers and investors alike. In hindsight, the decision of RBI governor to not raise interest rates in last review meeting proved to be sound. He rightly pointed out in that meeting that RBI should avoid taking long term measures for tackling the short term problems or issues. If inflation continues to get leveled the chances of a rate cut becomes strong to revive Indian growth story. Let’s see how everything rolls out in coming days.
Sensex and Nifty gained 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 1.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 1.6%, Midcap down by 0.2%
After a muted trading activity last week, markets saw a surge in interest in technology, energy and financial stocks. Infosys’ good results, improved dollar revenue guidance and expected positive news from other IT stocks also has raised hopes of the market. Govt’s move to notify the gas Rangarajan’s gas price formula led to improvement in energy stocks levels. In addition, weak US job data also eased the tapering concerns of investors around the globe that added to the buying momentum in the Indian markets.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap flat
Markets pared gains it made previous day mostly because of profit booking. Lower retail inflation numbers released by the govt. on Monday evening failed to cheer up the markets as the decline was already factored in the market prices.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Although the retail inflation numbers were low but the fall in wholesale prices took the market by surprise. WPI increased by 6.16% far below the street estimates of 6.99%. This decline has finally set aside the speculation on rate hikes in RBI review meeting at the end of this month. Sensex touched its five-week high on the back of rise in interest rate sensitive sectors such as auto, banks and financials.
Thursday – Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets continue to trade range bound as increased hopes of no rates hikes in RBI meeting was countered by profit booking. The news that Reliance Jio is planning to bid for spectrum licenses also led to huge selling across the telecom sector stocks as re-entry of RIL may bring back the price wars and cut into profitability of the sector.
Friday – Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Markets slide as TCS posted lower margins and guided to no recovery until the general elections are over in the country and things stabilizes a bit. Profit booking also led to selling across all counters.
Sensex and Nifty gained 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 1.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 1.6%, Midcap down by 0.2%
After a muted trading activity last week, markets saw a surge in interest in technology, energy and financial stocks. Infosys’ good results, improved dollar revenue guidance and expected positive news from other IT stocks also has raised hopes of the market. Govt’s move to notify the gas Rangarajan’s gas price formula led to improvement in energy stocks levels. In addition, weak US job data also eased the tapering concerns of investors around the globe that added to the buying momentum in the Indian markets.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap flat
Markets pared gains it made previous day mostly because of profit booking. Lower retail inflation numbers released by the govt. on Monday evening failed to cheer up the markets as the decline was already factored in the market prices.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Although the retail inflation numbers were low but the fall in wholesale prices took the market by surprise. WPI increased by 6.16% far below the street estimates of 6.99%. This decline has finally set aside the speculation on rate hikes in RBI review meeting at the end of this month. Sensex touched its five-week high on the back of rise in interest rate sensitive sectors such as auto, banks and financials.
Thursday – Sensex and Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets continue to trade range bound as increased hopes of no rates hikes in RBI meeting was countered by profit booking. The news that Reliance Jio is planning to bid for spectrum licenses also led to huge selling across the telecom sector stocks as re-entry of RIL may bring back the price wars and cut into profitability of the sector.
Friday – Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Markets slide as TCS posted lower margins and guided to no recovery until the general elections are over in the country and things stabilizes a bit. Profit booking also led to selling across all counters.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 30, 2013 - Jan 3, 2014
First week of 2014 was, to say the least, unexciting. Many investors decided to stay on the sidelines as market lacked any fresh triggers. A speech from our PM promising that his govt. would continue to push reforms, create a favourable FDI climate and will work to generate more employment left most people yawning.
Sensex and Nifty lost 1.6% each while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9% this week.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
The markets were lackluster as investors stayed away because of ongoing holiday season.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Small gains seen in the index level as cement and oil and gas stocks registered positive movement owing to the bets on turnaround in Indian economy in 2014.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex recorded a drop on first trading day of 2014. Investors were cautious as govt. data released yesterday showed India's fiscal deficit is now 94% of the annual target. Also, lower growth of 1.7% in index of eight core industries vs. 5.8% previous year added to the bearish sentiment.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 2.1%
Strong opening during the early day was hit by bout of profit booking in the second half of the trading day. Weak manufacturing data from China also kept the global sentiment low.
Friday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Markets continued their cautious stance on Friday as low activity in the market with some value buying and rise in tech stocks countering the profit booking and keeping the index range-bound.
Sensex and Nifty lost 1.6% each while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9% this week.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
The markets were lackluster as investors stayed away because of ongoing holiday season.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Small gains seen in the index level as cement and oil and gas stocks registered positive movement owing to the bets on turnaround in Indian economy in 2014.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex recorded a drop on first trading day of 2014. Investors were cautious as govt. data released yesterday showed India's fiscal deficit is now 94% of the annual target. Also, lower growth of 1.7% in index of eight core industries vs. 5.8% previous year added to the bearish sentiment.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 2.1%
Strong opening during the early day was hit by bout of profit booking in the second half of the trading day. Weak manufacturing data from China also kept the global sentiment low.
Friday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Markets continued their cautious stance on Friday as low activity in the market with some value buying and rise in tech stocks countering the profit booking and keeping the index range-bound.
Friday, January 3, 2014
The Walking Dead
How did equities as an investment look now after being pronounced dead about 5 years ago? Remember 2008, when everybody and his uncle was shit scared and trying to save his ass from getting fired in latest downsizing. I don’t want to remember that either. Everyday you lose friends, colleagues, batchmates to credit crisis. That was when I started giving blogging a serious thought. You can read my 2008 posts here. I wrote only three.
Lot of people denounced equities back then. Lot of my friends changed career lines. Not me. I stayed. To write this post. Not that I have become a portfolio manager of some big stud firm or have decided to retire from this business after making my millions during this crisis. Nope. My objectives are still far from being achieved. Though, I did made some money. But I stayed to present you with this graphic (all NSE data) which speaks volumes about the performance of equity markets since 2007 with special mention to 5 years CAGR performance.
Let me know what are your thoughts on equities as an investment.
Lot of people denounced equities back then. Lot of my friends changed career lines. Not me. I stayed. To write this post. Not that I have become a portfolio manager of some big stud firm or have decided to retire from this business after making my millions during this crisis. Nope. My objectives are still far from being achieved. Though, I did made some money. But I stayed to present you with this graphic (all NSE data) which speaks volumes about the performance of equity markets since 2007 with special mention to 5 years CAGR performance.
Let me know what are your thoughts on equities as an investment.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 23 - Dec 27, 2013
2013 is coming to close. Markets registered a gain on last week of this year as it did in the first week of this year. Highlights of this year were all the noise around QE tapering from US Fed that led to a roller coaster ride for our currency and stock markets. Although, it all turned out to be a whimper but it did give a wakeup call to Indian govt. to get its act together. Add to all this mayhem the cancellation of POSCO and ArcellorMittal plans to setup plants in India, scams, inflation, gang rapes, policy paralysis, rating downgrade warnings and uncertainty around elections. So, there was the ground, seven layers of shit and then us.
Nonetheless, our markets recovered their old glory as Sensex made new highs. Market rejoiced as veterans returned to take care of their broken legacies; stalwarts were appointed to guide our way through fiscal mess, save rupee and general public from scourges of inflation; and anti-corruption wave made way for more business friendly governments and ushered into a new era as a one year old party made people realize that their voices are not unheard.
As many of the above problems have remained unsolved, hope has emerged as country prepares to elect its new leadership in 2014. Let us hope for an even better and interesting 2014.
I wish a very happy and prosperous new year to my readers.
Sensex gained 0.5%; Nifty gained 0.6% while CNX Midcap was up by 2.5% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Upward movement during the first half of the trading day was capped by late selling seen in Infosys, which saw exit of another key management personnel, HDFC, which saw some profit booking after RBI said inflation fighting is still their topmost priority. Market momentum stayed bullish as global indices firmed up though some volatility generally increases near F&O expiry date.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets remained choppy as investors stayed cautious ahead of F&O expiry on Dec 26. Global markets also remained range-bound due to light trading activity ahead of holiday season.
Wednesday – Markets closed on occasion of Christmas
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Trading activity was mute on the F&O expiry day. Axis Bank rallied surged after the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved proposal to increase foreign investment in the bank from 49% to 62%.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Market closed the week higher led by gains in export-oriented sectors such as IT and Pharma as US data showed improved recovery in employment situation. Banks and FMCG also gained as street expects inflation data to be lower in January and RBI to maintain status quo on rates.
Nonetheless, our markets recovered their old glory as Sensex made new highs. Market rejoiced as veterans returned to take care of their broken legacies; stalwarts were appointed to guide our way through fiscal mess, save rupee and general public from scourges of inflation; and anti-corruption wave made way for more business friendly governments and ushered into a new era as a one year old party made people realize that their voices are not unheard.
As many of the above problems have remained unsolved, hope has emerged as country prepares to elect its new leadership in 2014. Let us hope for an even better and interesting 2014.
I wish a very happy and prosperous new year to my readers.
Sensex gained 0.5%; Nifty gained 0.6% while CNX Midcap was up by 2.5% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Upward movement during the first half of the trading day was capped by late selling seen in Infosys, which saw exit of another key management personnel, HDFC, which saw some profit booking after RBI said inflation fighting is still their topmost priority. Market momentum stayed bullish as global indices firmed up though some volatility generally increases near F&O expiry date.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets remained choppy as investors stayed cautious ahead of F&O expiry on Dec 26. Global markets also remained range-bound due to light trading activity ahead of holiday season.
Wednesday – Markets closed on occasion of Christmas
Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Trading activity was mute on the F&O expiry day. Axis Bank rallied surged after the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved proposal to increase foreign investment in the bank from 49% to 62%.
Friday – Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Market closed the week higher led by gains in export-oriented sectors such as IT and Pharma as US data showed improved recovery in employment situation. Banks and FMCG also gained as street expects inflation data to be lower in January and RBI to maintain status quo on rates.
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 16 - Dec 20, 2013
Quite a week for Indian markets. With Fed’s tapering decision out of the way and uncertainty related to Indian govt’s stand on KG D6 gas price revision cleared, investors and business got another major sentiment boost from RBI governor who decided not to raise rates even in the midst of rising inflation. Therefore, what resulted is Sensex regaining 21,000 level while focus now shifted to food inflation data, which, if strengthened, may warrant a rate hike from RBI.
Sensex gained 1.8%; Nifty gained 1.7% while CNX Midcap was up by 3.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex failed to gain ground as impending rate hike concerns, post high inflation numbers, have kept the street nervous. Street is widely expecting a repo rate hike of 25bps to 8.00% in Dec 18 policy review. Recent govt data shows that costly vegetables, particularly potato and onion has pushed the November WPI to 7.52% from 7% previous month while CPI has jumped to 11.24% warranting inflation controlling measures from central bank.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets traded in the narrow range as investors stayed cautious ahead of RBI policy review meet on Wednesday.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
RBI sprung a surprise as it decided to maintain the status quo and left the rates unchanged. Investors’ sentiments turned bullish as RBI governor Raghuram Rajan indicated lowering of inflation in near term due to falling vegetable prices but promised to act if inflation did not subside as expected.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.4%
There was some selloff as Fed announced $10bn of tapering every month. Neither the selloff nor the tapering decision came as a surprise. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline.
Friday – Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets went up as Fed’s QE tapering decision is finally out of its way and as expected did not have major impact on either stocks or currency. Sensex got a major boost as govt. finally cleared Reliance Industries’ demand of higher gas prices while asking them to deposit a guarantee equivalent to any incremental revenue. With this decision, govt has cleared lot of uncertainties in the oil and gas industry and made easier for foreign companies to invest in India.
Sensex gained 1.8%; Nifty gained 1.7% while CNX Midcap was up by 3.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex failed to gain ground as impending rate hike concerns, post high inflation numbers, have kept the street nervous. Street is widely expecting a repo rate hike of 25bps to 8.00% in Dec 18 policy review. Recent govt data shows that costly vegetables, particularly potato and onion has pushed the November WPI to 7.52% from 7% previous month while CPI has jumped to 11.24% warranting inflation controlling measures from central bank.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets traded in the narrow range as investors stayed cautious ahead of RBI policy review meet on Wednesday.
Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
RBI sprung a surprise as it decided to maintain the status quo and left the rates unchanged. Investors’ sentiments turned bullish as RBI governor Raghuram Rajan indicated lowering of inflation in near term due to falling vegetable prices but promised to act if inflation did not subside as expected.
Thursday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.4%
There was some selloff as Fed announced $10bn of tapering every month. Neither the selloff nor the tapering decision came as a surprise. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline.
Friday – Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets went up as Fed’s QE tapering decision is finally out of its way and as expected did not have major impact on either stocks or currency. Sensex got a major boost as govt. finally cleared Reliance Industries’ demand of higher gas prices while asking them to deposit a guarantee equivalent to any incremental revenue. With this decision, govt has cleared lot of uncertainties in the oil and gas industry and made easier for foreign companies to invest in India.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 9 - Dec 13, 2013
As political events have turned very exciting in the country, it is the boring economics that made investors realize that it cannot remain sidelined for long. This week as investors’ sentiment over exit polls reached a climax in the state election results, markets touch their all time high on first trading session of the week. However, as the reality of the day set in, inflation blew out all the air out of the election bubble.
Sensex fell 1.3%; Nifty lost 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 2.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Sensex touched a new high as market momentum built up by the exit polls continued. The main opposition and business friendly party BJP win a clear mandate in three out of four state elections strengthening its electoral prospects and chances of forming a government in the centre in May.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets saw some profit booking while new draft regulation from CERC led a major blow to NTPC earnings. NTPC went down by 11% as under new guidelines that are going to implement from April 2014, has kept RoE as the method of calculating incentives but has done some tightening on taxation and expenses front making it difficult for players like NTPC and PGCIL to maintain their current profitability.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets opened lower as weak global sentiment weighed heavily on domestic trading, but good news on CAD front led indices recoup some of their losses. India managed to lower its current account deficit as exports grew by 5.86% in November while imports dip to their two and a half year low following steep decline in gold imports. India’s CAD now stands at $9.22bn as against $17.2bn previous month.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets were under selling pressure ahead of release of CPI and IIP numbers. Street estimates IIP numbers are going to signal contraction in the economy while CPI numbers will stick in 10% range prompting RBI governor to raise rates.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Worse than expected CPI numbers took its toll on the Indian markets when it recorded its biggest weekly fall. CPI for November came at 11.24% vs. street estimates of 10% range raising the fear of increase in interest rates. Street is now estimating a 25bps hike in interest rates on Dec 18. The market has pared all gains made on Monday after state elections results announcement.
Sensex fell 1.3%; Nifty lost 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 2.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Sensex touched a new high as market momentum built up by the exit polls continued. The main opposition and business friendly party BJP win a clear mandate in three out of four state elections strengthening its electoral prospects and chances of forming a government in the centre in May.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets saw some profit booking while new draft regulation from CERC led a major blow to NTPC earnings. NTPC went down by 11% as under new guidelines that are going to implement from April 2014, has kept RoE as the method of calculating incentives but has done some tightening on taxation and expenses front making it difficult for players like NTPC and PGCIL to maintain their current profitability.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets opened lower as weak global sentiment weighed heavily on domestic trading, but good news on CAD front led indices recoup some of their losses. India managed to lower its current account deficit as exports grew by 5.86% in November while imports dip to their two and a half year low following steep decline in gold imports. India’s CAD now stands at $9.22bn as against $17.2bn previous month.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets were under selling pressure ahead of release of CPI and IIP numbers. Street estimates IIP numbers are going to signal contraction in the economy while CPI numbers will stick in 10% range prompting RBI governor to raise rates.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Worse than expected CPI numbers took its toll on the Indian markets when it recorded its biggest weekly fall. CPI for November came at 11.24% vs. street estimates of 10% range raising the fear of increase in interest rates. Street is now estimating a 25bps hike in interest rates on Dec 18. The market has pared all gains made on Monday after state elections results announcement.
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