PM Narendra Modi’s maiden Independence Day speech did well to excite Indian citizens with prospects of wonderful days ahead and enthuse investors to pour money into the Indian markets.
One thing is for sure, India is no longer business as usual. Things are changing, albeit at a slower pace than some expected, but it is changing. More and more projects are been given green light – without losing the focus on environmental issues, societal changes have been signaled without ruffling the opposition’s feathers and efforts are been made to drastically cut down the red tape and make India one of the world’s favored business destination (WB ranks us at 134 out of 189 economies ranked).
Modi also send the last reminiscent of India’s attempt of mimicking Soviet’s command economy – Planning Commission packing. With Planning Commission gone, the focus turns back to decentralization of Indian economy with states getting even more financing powers and autonomy going forward.
Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.6% and Midcap up by 3.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Investors cheered as PM Narendra Modi delivered his maiden Independence Day speech where he vowed to make radical changes in the way country is run especially the bureaucratic setup. The news of declining WPI to five- month low and easing of tensions over Ukraine also boosted the positive sentiment.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Both Sensex and Nifty continued their journey upwards as oil retailers surged after Brent hit its 14-month low. FII sentiment is buoyed by positive noises made by Modi govt. on reforms and strong trust on RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s ability to tackle exchange rate crises and inflation. Falling crude prices have also added to the bullish sentiment as India’s import burden eased.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Benchmark indices corrected after rallying continuously for six days as investors booked profits ahead of scheduled US Fed meeting on Thursday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Both Sensex and Nifty edged higher as FIIs continued to pour money in Indian markets, especially in blue-chips reflecting continued optimism about corporate earnings and a recovery in the domestic economy. Slipping in crude oil prices as China reported slowdown in its huge factory sector also helped the sentiment.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Nifty closed at its all-time high of 7,913.20 points led by IT stocks - which rallied on the news of improving prospects of US economy, and banks rose as RBI looks into reviewing lending caps to align them with global standards set by Basel committee.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 11, 2014 - Aug 15, 2014
A very good week for the markets. Sensex went up by more than 770 points in the span of four trading days. Nomura raised BSE Sensex target to 30,310 by August 2015 citing the cyclical pick-up in growth. UBS maintained its 12-month Nifty target of 8,000 putting a premium on growth potential of the Indian economy especially when it comes out of ruts.
Narendra Modi's decision to do away with Planning Commission has unshackled the Indian states economy from the clutches of last remaining Soviet style institution. I couldn't think of a better way to say Happy Independence Day.
Sensex ended this week up by 3.1% while Nifty was up by 2.9% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty snapped their losing streak and rose nearly 1% on good numbers from stocks such as Mahindra & Mahindra and cooling-off in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Realty stocks gained after SEBI put its stamp on FM’s decision of setting up of REITs, a widely acclaimed move that will offer a new source of financing to India's cash-strapped property developers and new investment vehicle to the nation.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Investors cheered the Tata Motors results – the firm tripled its quarterly net profit on back of strong JLR sales. Analysts are also upbeat about the overall health of the economy and expect July CPI to rise marginally to 7.40% from 7.31% in June, as per a Reuters’ poll. Also, a poll of 27 economists expects factory output in June to rise by 5.4% y-o-y in comparison with the 4.7% growth in May.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty ended the day marginally higher as gains in IT stocks due to weak rupee were offset by decline in capital goods stocks as BHEL’s earnings disappointed the street. Gains were also capped as lenders fell after govt. released July CPI data at 7.96% vs. 7.46% in June.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Benchmark indices went up as WPI inflation dropped to five-month low level due to moderation in fuel costs and investors prepare for maiden Independence Day speech of PM Narendra Modi. Investors are expecting some key reform related announcements on Friday.
Friday – Exchanges closed on account of Independence Day
Narendra Modi's decision to do away with Planning Commission has unshackled the Indian states economy from the clutches of last remaining Soviet style institution. I couldn't think of a better way to say Happy Independence Day.
Sensex ended this week up by 3.1% while Nifty was up by 2.9% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty snapped their losing streak and rose nearly 1% on good numbers from stocks such as Mahindra & Mahindra and cooling-off in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Realty stocks gained after SEBI put its stamp on FM’s decision of setting up of REITs, a widely acclaimed move that will offer a new source of financing to India's cash-strapped property developers and new investment vehicle to the nation.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Investors cheered the Tata Motors results – the firm tripled its quarterly net profit on back of strong JLR sales. Analysts are also upbeat about the overall health of the economy and expect July CPI to rise marginally to 7.40% from 7.31% in June, as per a Reuters’ poll. Also, a poll of 27 economists expects factory output in June to rise by 5.4% y-o-y in comparison with the 4.7% growth in May.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty ended the day marginally higher as gains in IT stocks due to weak rupee were offset by decline in capital goods stocks as BHEL’s earnings disappointed the street. Gains were also capped as lenders fell after govt. released July CPI data at 7.96% vs. 7.46% in June.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Benchmark indices went up as WPI inflation dropped to five-month low level due to moderation in fuel costs and investors prepare for maiden Independence Day speech of PM Narendra Modi. Investors are expecting some key reform related announcements on Friday.
Friday – Exchanges closed on account of Independence Day
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 4, 2014 - Aug 8, 2014
The week started off with good positive movement in anticipation of more relaxation in funds available to lenders from RBI. RBI didn’t disappoint on that one. While reducing the SLR and bond holdings percentage in HTM portfolio, governor made sure the funds availability for investment into productive assets increases considerably.
The governor did acknowledge that the fight with inflation is far from being over and there needs to be more cautiousness and patience on the street before he gets into the rate cutting mood.
The highlight of the week was Governor Raghuram Rajan warning that global markets are at the risk of a "crash". The culprit he identified was the loose monetary policy game developed economies are playing where they are trying to outdo each other in charging rock bottom interest rates.
Raghuram Rajan in an interview said, “unfortunately, a number of macro- economists have not fully learned the lessons of the great financial crisis. They still do not pay enough attention - en passant - to the financial sector. Financial sector crises are not as predictable. The risks build up until, wham, it hits you".
Sensex ended this week down by 0.6% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 1.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Benchmark indices started the week with an upward move led by software services exporters such as Infosys which gained as rupee weakened ahead of RBI's policy review. Market is widely expecting RBI to keep interest rates on hold as inflation is still outside central bank’s comfort zone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Both Sensex and Nifty inched higher as RBI loosen the grip on liquidity more while keeping the interest rates unchanged as expected. Central bank reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50bps to 22% of deposits (SLR is the amount of liquid assets such as gold or govt. (approved) securities, that a bank must maintain as reserves other than the cash). This move will help banks to channel more funds into productive sectors of the economy.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets snapped as RBI policy review effects get absorbed in the market. Lenders such as SBI and ICICI fell on worries that RBI move of reducing SLR requirement and amount of bonds in held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio will led to rise in yields and decline in value of their debt holdings. The existing benchmark 10-year bond yield surged 10bps to 8.83%, its biggest single-day rise in four months, on Tuesday and an additional 2bps on Wednesday.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets continued to trade weaker as both Sensex and Nifty declined by 0.3% on profit booking. Geo-political concerns also weighed on the investors’ mind.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.7%
Investors continued to stay cautious as US President Barack Obama authorized targeted air strikes in Iraq. There was a sell-off in global markets on rising worries of another drawn-out conflict in the region.
The governor did acknowledge that the fight with inflation is far from being over and there needs to be more cautiousness and patience on the street before he gets into the rate cutting mood.
The highlight of the week was Governor Raghuram Rajan warning that global markets are at the risk of a "crash". The culprit he identified was the loose monetary policy game developed economies are playing where they are trying to outdo each other in charging rock bottom interest rates.
Raghuram Rajan in an interview said, “unfortunately, a number of macro- economists have not fully learned the lessons of the great financial crisis. They still do not pay enough attention - en passant - to the financial sector. Financial sector crises are not as predictable. The risks build up until, wham, it hits you".
Sensex ended this week down by 0.6% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 1.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Benchmark indices started the week with an upward move led by software services exporters such as Infosys which gained as rupee weakened ahead of RBI's policy review. Market is widely expecting RBI to keep interest rates on hold as inflation is still outside central bank’s comfort zone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Both Sensex and Nifty inched higher as RBI loosen the grip on liquidity more while keeping the interest rates unchanged as expected. Central bank reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50bps to 22% of deposits (SLR is the amount of liquid assets such as gold or govt. (approved) securities, that a bank must maintain as reserves other than the cash). This move will help banks to channel more funds into productive sectors of the economy.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets snapped as RBI policy review effects get absorbed in the market. Lenders such as SBI and ICICI fell on worries that RBI move of reducing SLR requirement and amount of bonds in held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio will led to rise in yields and decline in value of their debt holdings. The existing benchmark 10-year bond yield surged 10bps to 8.83%, its biggest single-day rise in four months, on Tuesday and an additional 2bps on Wednesday.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets continued to trade weaker as both Sensex and Nifty declined by 0.3% on profit booking. Geo-political concerns also weighed on the investors’ mind.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.7%
Investors continued to stay cautious as US President Barack Obama authorized targeted air strikes in Iraq. There was a sell-off in global markets on rising worries of another drawn-out conflict in the region.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Jul 28, 2014 - Aug 1, 2014
Sensex ended this week down by 2.5% while Nifty was down by 2.4% and Midcap down by 0.2%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Investors continued to book profits in the blue chips names ahead of the derivative expiry this week. RBI monetary policy review on next Tuesday will be the next catalyst for Indian stocks.
Tuesday – Markets closed on Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id)
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.7% Markets went up slightly after Bharti Airtel, Lupin Ltd and Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd posted results better than street expectations. The gains were capped ahead of derivative expiry, expected Fed statement later in the day and lower than consensus L&T results.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap up by 0.1% Markets fell on the derivative expiry day weighed down by FII sales after not so impressive numbers from Maruti Suzuki and HCL Technologies. Cadila Healthcare also slumped 4.5% USFDA made certain observations after conducting a "product specific" inspection of its Moraiya manufacturing plant.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.6%, Nifty down by 1.5%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty declined nearly by 1.5%, marking their biggest single-day fall in nearly 3-1/2 weeks in tandem with global market peers ahead of U.S. jobs data. Some analysts are anticipating that a strong US job report will prompt Fed towards interest rate hike, effectively slowing down the interest rates fueled rally across the globe.
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