Saturday, April 12, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 7, 2014 - Apr 11, 2014

India continues to benefit from lack of alternatives in emerging market space as I already mentioned in my earlier post. Due to limited options, FIIs are pouring money into Indian markets giving the economy disproportionate share of the EM flows.
It remains to be seen for how long this situation will continue. But till then..party ho ri bahut bhayankar! :)

Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.2% and Midcap up by 2.5%

Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.3%
Benchmark indices closed slightly down as country begins voting for formation of new govt at the centre. Some investors booked profits as Sensex and Nifty breached new record levels in days approaching elections. Sun Pharma leads the gainers on Sensex as company announced its purchase of Ranbaxy in total equity deal of $3.2bn. There was some action seen in cement stocks also after Swiss company Holcim, which holds more than 50% stake in ACC and Ambuja cements announced merger with France’s Lafarge. The combined entity will become the largest cement maker in India.

Tuesday – Markets closed on Ram Navmi

Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets surged to a new high after a brief pause and a break in beginning of the week. Sun Pharma rose by more than 7% as brokers rushed to upgrade the stock after Ranbaxy buy. Most interest rate sensitive stocks gained as investors expects more benign inflation scenario in near term.

Thursday - Sensex up slightly by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.2%
BSE Sensex ended slightly higher as gains were capped by profit booking seen in IT stocks as earnings season commences from Apr 15. In addition, investors are cautious ahead of release of IIP data. Other Asian bourses also saw some selling as US markets ended lower on concerns of high valuation of some tech stocks.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key Indices closed lower as investors prepares for earnings season and release of inflation data next week. Govt data released on Friday showed the trade deficit widening to $10.5bn in March from $8.1bn in Feb due to lower exports.

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 17, 2014 - Mar 21, 2014

Indian markets continued to have volatile sessions ahead of Indian elections due to lack of any other strong catalysts. US Federal Reserve attempts to increase short-term interest rates sooner than expected led to markets around the globe moving nervously. Any decline in interest spread between US and emerging markets may lead to decline in potential opportunities for yield-searching investments.

Sensex ended this week down 0.3%, Nifty was down by 0.2% while CNX Midcap was up by 1.3%.

Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Holi

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices rose to their records highs but retreated later to settle almost flat. FIIs continue to put money in Indian blue chips ahead of Indian general elections. A small improvement in the industrial output and further lowering of inflation has also added to the positive mood on the street.

Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investor sentiment was subdued ahead of US Fed meeting later in the day. IT major TCS joined Infosys in flagging concerns about revenue growth in near term and indicated that growth could be weaker than previous quarters, which led to some profit booking in IT stocks.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Stocks ended lower as Fed chairperson Janet Yellen hinted at raising interest rates sooner than expected and will affect the yield seeking investments. Indian capital goods, financial, auto and all other interest rate sensitive stocks ended the day lower.

Friday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Benchmark indices continued their positive momentum but ended the week only a tad higher on last day of the week.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 10, 2014 - Mar 14, 2014

Indian markets reported a weekly loss after ending three consecutive weeks in green. As expected, markets continued to stay volatile ahead of the elections, with somewhat positive momentum. It has been almost six months the key benchmark index, sensex trading above 20k level.

RBI review meeting on Apr 1 will be next key catalyst investors are focusing on. If RBI managed to cut rates, we may expect some more rally in cyclical especially banks and capital goods.

Sensex ended this week down 0.5%, Nifty was down by 0.3% while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9%.

Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets continued their positive momentum and sensex traded above 22,000 level for a while and closing at its new record high. Investors continued to show interest in cyclicals while defensives act as source of funds. Market is expected to stay volatile in days ahead of the election with a focus on economic data release on trade deficit, IIP, CPI and WPI in the near term.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Profit booking across the sector led to benchmark indices losing some ground. The fall in trade deficit failed to bring cheer to the market as the data showed decline in exports. The trade deficit lowered to $8.13bn in Feb, which is lowest in past five months.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets closed at almost flat as investors keenly await inflation data release. Inflation and industrial output data are key determinants of RBI interest rate policy that will be up for discussion on April 1.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Benchmark indices climbed to their highs as govt releases inflation stats. Feb WPI inflation declined to 4.68% vs. 5.05% in Jan due to fall in vegetable and fuel prices. However, markets quickly gave up their gains as IT stocks declined after Infosys painted beak future of its business outlook. China’s missing of its industrial growth and retail sales target also add to the selling pressure in the markets.

Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Indian markets traded weaker during most of the day like their asian and European counterparts on fears that China may be slowing down and standoff on Ukrain may continue or even escalate. But value buying in key sensex and nifty stocks during the end of the day led the benchmark indices closing in the green.