Friday slump in markets due to rising oil prices amid continued violence in Iraq may jeopardize the best laid plans of Modi govt. Not only the rising crude oil prices will have debilitating effect on subsidies, it will also let in more inflation.
All this will tie FM’s hands who wants to install some sort of fiscal tightening and do away with lot of welfare schemes. Any attempt to clamp down welfare spending during rising inflation environment may not go down well with general public.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.7% while Nifty was down by 0.5% and Midcap down by 2.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty continued their ride up as anticipation of reforms build up. Some rally was seen in fertilizer stocks after govt disclosed plans to raise the price of urea by at least 10%.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty unchanged while Midcap down by 0.5%
Indices took a breather as investors booked profits in recently rallied names. Yet, the sentiment on the street remain bullish as market heads into first budget of Narendra Modi govt in first week of July.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Markets snapped after touching all time highs. Investors booked profits in infrastructure and capital goods stocks which has outperformed recently. FIIs continued to show confidence in Indian equities and bought $115.2mn worth of shares on Tuesday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty showed some gains in anticipation of positive economic data release later in the day. A Reuters survey found economists expecting CPI easing to 8.4% in May vs. April number of 8.59%.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Rising violence in Iraq led to scare in the market with crude oil rising to its nine-month high taking a toll on Indian stocks also. Sensex and Nifty both slumped 1.4% as investors fear rise in subsidies and trade deficits if high crude oil price persists. There was a bit of positive news from the economy as industrial growth rebounded. Retail inflation also dropped to 8.4%, a three-month low - signs of an economic revival that could offset the threat of patchy summer rains.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Sunday, June 1, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 26, 2014 - May 30, 2014
Elections are over. New govt is in place. The country is in midst of (sort of) growth crisis. Time has come for govt to roll up its sleeve.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 7, 2014 - Apr 11, 2014
India continues to benefit from lack of alternatives in emerging market space as I already mentioned in my earlier post. Due to limited options, FIIs are pouring money into Indian markets giving the economy disproportionate share of the EM flows.
It remains to be seen for how long this situation will continue. But till then..party ho ri bahut bhayankar! :)
Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.2% and Midcap up by 2.5%
Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.3%
Benchmark indices closed slightly down as country begins voting for formation of new govt at the centre. Some investors booked profits as Sensex and Nifty breached new record levels in days approaching elections. Sun Pharma leads the gainers on Sensex as company announced its purchase of Ranbaxy in total equity deal of $3.2bn. There was some action seen in cement stocks also after Swiss company Holcim, which holds more than 50% stake in ACC and Ambuja cements announced merger with France’s Lafarge. The combined entity will become the largest cement maker in India.
Tuesday – Markets closed on Ram Navmi
Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets surged to a new high after a brief pause and a break in beginning of the week. Sun Pharma rose by more than 7% as brokers rushed to upgrade the stock after Ranbaxy buy. Most interest rate sensitive stocks gained as investors expects more benign inflation scenario in near term.
Thursday - Sensex up slightly by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.2%
BSE Sensex ended slightly higher as gains were capped by profit booking seen in IT stocks as earnings season commences from Apr 15. In addition, investors are cautious ahead of release of IIP data. Other Asian bourses also saw some selling as US markets ended lower on concerns of high valuation of some tech stocks.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key Indices closed lower as investors prepares for earnings season and release of inflation data next week. Govt data released on Friday showed the trade deficit widening to $10.5bn in March from $8.1bn in Feb due to lower exports.
It remains to be seen for how long this situation will continue. But till then..party ho ri bahut bhayankar! :)
Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.2% and Midcap up by 2.5%
Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.3%
Benchmark indices closed slightly down as country begins voting for formation of new govt at the centre. Some investors booked profits as Sensex and Nifty breached new record levels in days approaching elections. Sun Pharma leads the gainers on Sensex as company announced its purchase of Ranbaxy in total equity deal of $3.2bn. There was some action seen in cement stocks also after Swiss company Holcim, which holds more than 50% stake in ACC and Ambuja cements announced merger with France’s Lafarge. The combined entity will become the largest cement maker in India.
Tuesday – Markets closed on Ram Navmi
Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets surged to a new high after a brief pause and a break in beginning of the week. Sun Pharma rose by more than 7% as brokers rushed to upgrade the stock after Ranbaxy buy. Most interest rate sensitive stocks gained as investors expects more benign inflation scenario in near term.
Thursday - Sensex up slightly by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.2%
BSE Sensex ended slightly higher as gains were capped by profit booking seen in IT stocks as earnings season commences from Apr 15. In addition, investors are cautious ahead of release of IIP data. Other Asian bourses also saw some selling as US markets ended lower on concerns of high valuation of some tech stocks.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key Indices closed lower as investors prepares for earnings season and release of inflation data next week. Govt data released on Friday showed the trade deficit widening to $10.5bn in March from $8.1bn in Feb due to lower exports.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 9 - Dec 13, 2013
As political events have turned very exciting in the country, it is the boring economics that made investors realize that it cannot remain sidelined for long. This week as investors’ sentiment over exit polls reached a climax in the state election results, markets touch their all time high on first trading session of the week. However, as the reality of the day set in, inflation blew out all the air out of the election bubble.
Sensex fell 1.3%; Nifty lost 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 2.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Sensex touched a new high as market momentum built up by the exit polls continued. The main opposition and business friendly party BJP win a clear mandate in three out of four state elections strengthening its electoral prospects and chances of forming a government in the centre in May.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets saw some profit booking while new draft regulation from CERC led a major blow to NTPC earnings. NTPC went down by 11% as under new guidelines that are going to implement from April 2014, has kept RoE as the method of calculating incentives but has done some tightening on taxation and expenses front making it difficult for players like NTPC and PGCIL to maintain their current profitability.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets opened lower as weak global sentiment weighed heavily on domestic trading, but good news on CAD front led indices recoup some of their losses. India managed to lower its current account deficit as exports grew by 5.86% in November while imports dip to their two and a half year low following steep decline in gold imports. India’s CAD now stands at $9.22bn as against $17.2bn previous month.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets were under selling pressure ahead of release of CPI and IIP numbers. Street estimates IIP numbers are going to signal contraction in the economy while CPI numbers will stick in 10% range prompting RBI governor to raise rates.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Worse than expected CPI numbers took its toll on the Indian markets when it recorded its biggest weekly fall. CPI for November came at 11.24% vs. street estimates of 10% range raising the fear of increase in interest rates. Street is now estimating a 25bps hike in interest rates on Dec 18. The market has pared all gains made on Monday after state elections results announcement.
Sensex fell 1.3%; Nifty lost 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 2.1% this week.
Monday – Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Sensex touched a new high as market momentum built up by the exit polls continued. The main opposition and business friendly party BJP win a clear mandate in three out of four state elections strengthening its electoral prospects and chances of forming a government in the centre in May.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets saw some profit booking while new draft regulation from CERC led a major blow to NTPC earnings. NTPC went down by 11% as under new guidelines that are going to implement from April 2014, has kept RoE as the method of calculating incentives but has done some tightening on taxation and expenses front making it difficult for players like NTPC and PGCIL to maintain their current profitability.
Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets opened lower as weak global sentiment weighed heavily on domestic trading, but good news on CAD front led indices recoup some of their losses. India managed to lower its current account deficit as exports grew by 5.86% in November while imports dip to their two and a half year low following steep decline in gold imports. India’s CAD now stands at $9.22bn as against $17.2bn previous month.
Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets were under selling pressure ahead of release of CPI and IIP numbers. Street estimates IIP numbers are going to signal contraction in the economy while CPI numbers will stick in 10% range prompting RBI governor to raise rates.
Friday – Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Worse than expected CPI numbers took its toll on the Indian markets when it recorded its biggest weekly fall. CPI for November came at 11.24% vs. street estimates of 10% range raising the fear of increase in interest rates. Street is now estimating a 25bps hike in interest rates on Dec 18. The market has pared all gains made on Monday after state elections results announcement.
Sunday, October 6, 2013
How the economic machine works
One of the best videos from widely respected hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, on how the economy machine functions; how boom and bust cycle occur; what leads to recessions, deflations and expansions in the modern economy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)