PM Narendra Modi’s maiden Independence Day speech did well to excite Indian citizens with prospects of wonderful days ahead and enthuse investors to pour money into the Indian markets.
One thing is for sure, India is no longer business as usual. Things are changing, albeit at a slower pace than some expected, but it is changing. More and more projects are been given green light – without losing the focus on environmental issues, societal changes have been signaled without ruffling the opposition’s feathers and efforts are been made to drastically cut down the red tape and make India one of the world’s favored business destination (WB ranks us at 134 out of 189 economies ranked).
Modi also send the last reminiscent of India’s attempt of mimicking Soviet’s command economy – Planning Commission packing. With Planning Commission gone, the focus turns back to decentralization of Indian economy with states getting even more financing powers and autonomy going forward.
Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.6% and Midcap up by 3.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Investors cheered as PM Narendra Modi delivered his maiden Independence Day speech where he vowed to make radical changes in the way country is run especially the bureaucratic setup. The news of declining WPI to five- month low and easing of tensions over Ukraine also boosted the positive sentiment.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Both Sensex and Nifty continued their journey upwards as oil retailers surged after Brent hit its 14-month low. FII sentiment is buoyed by positive noises made by Modi govt. on reforms and strong trust on RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s ability to tackle exchange rate crises and inflation. Falling crude prices have also added to the bullish sentiment as India’s import burden eased.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Benchmark indices corrected after rallying continuously for six days as investors booked profits ahead of scheduled US Fed meeting on Thursday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Both Sensex and Nifty edged higher as FIIs continued to pour money in Indian markets, especially in blue-chips reflecting continued optimism about corporate earnings and a recovery in the domestic economy. Slipping in crude oil prices as China reported slowdown in its huge factory sector also helped the sentiment.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Nifty closed at its all-time high of 7,913.20 points led by IT stocks - which rallied on the news of improving prospects of US economy, and banks rose as RBI looks into reviewing lending caps to align them with global standards set by Basel committee.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 11, 2014 - Aug 15, 2014
A very good week for the markets. Sensex went up by more than 770 points in the span of four trading days. Nomura raised BSE Sensex target to 30,310 by August 2015 citing the cyclical pick-up in growth. UBS maintained its 12-month Nifty target of 8,000 putting a premium on growth potential of the Indian economy especially when it comes out of ruts.
Narendra Modi's decision to do away with Planning Commission has unshackled the Indian states economy from the clutches of last remaining Soviet style institution. I couldn't think of a better way to say Happy Independence Day.
Sensex ended this week up by 3.1% while Nifty was up by 2.9% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty snapped their losing streak and rose nearly 1% on good numbers from stocks such as Mahindra & Mahindra and cooling-off in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Realty stocks gained after SEBI put its stamp on FM’s decision of setting up of REITs, a widely acclaimed move that will offer a new source of financing to India's cash-strapped property developers and new investment vehicle to the nation.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Investors cheered the Tata Motors results – the firm tripled its quarterly net profit on back of strong JLR sales. Analysts are also upbeat about the overall health of the economy and expect July CPI to rise marginally to 7.40% from 7.31% in June, as per a Reuters’ poll. Also, a poll of 27 economists expects factory output in June to rise by 5.4% y-o-y in comparison with the 4.7% growth in May.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty ended the day marginally higher as gains in IT stocks due to weak rupee were offset by decline in capital goods stocks as BHEL’s earnings disappointed the street. Gains were also capped as lenders fell after govt. released July CPI data at 7.96% vs. 7.46% in June.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Benchmark indices went up as WPI inflation dropped to five-month low level due to moderation in fuel costs and investors prepare for maiden Independence Day speech of PM Narendra Modi. Investors are expecting some key reform related announcements on Friday.
Friday – Exchanges closed on account of Independence Day
Narendra Modi's decision to do away with Planning Commission has unshackled the Indian states economy from the clutches of last remaining Soviet style institution. I couldn't think of a better way to say Happy Independence Day.
Sensex ended this week up by 3.1% while Nifty was up by 2.9% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty snapped their losing streak and rose nearly 1% on good numbers from stocks such as Mahindra & Mahindra and cooling-off in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Realty stocks gained after SEBI put its stamp on FM’s decision of setting up of REITs, a widely acclaimed move that will offer a new source of financing to India's cash-strapped property developers and new investment vehicle to the nation.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Investors cheered the Tata Motors results – the firm tripled its quarterly net profit on back of strong JLR sales. Analysts are also upbeat about the overall health of the economy and expect July CPI to rise marginally to 7.40% from 7.31% in June, as per a Reuters’ poll. Also, a poll of 27 economists expects factory output in June to rise by 5.4% y-o-y in comparison with the 4.7% growth in May.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty ended the day marginally higher as gains in IT stocks due to weak rupee were offset by decline in capital goods stocks as BHEL’s earnings disappointed the street. Gains were also capped as lenders fell after govt. released July CPI data at 7.96% vs. 7.46% in June.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Benchmark indices went up as WPI inflation dropped to five-month low level due to moderation in fuel costs and investors prepare for maiden Independence Day speech of PM Narendra Modi. Investors are expecting some key reform related announcements on Friday.
Friday – Exchanges closed on account of Independence Day
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 4, 2014 - Aug 8, 2014
The week started off with good positive movement in anticipation of more relaxation in funds available to lenders from RBI. RBI didn’t disappoint on that one. While reducing the SLR and bond holdings percentage in HTM portfolio, governor made sure the funds availability for investment into productive assets increases considerably.
The governor did acknowledge that the fight with inflation is far from being over and there needs to be more cautiousness and patience on the street before he gets into the rate cutting mood.
The highlight of the week was Governor Raghuram Rajan warning that global markets are at the risk of a "crash". The culprit he identified was the loose monetary policy game developed economies are playing where they are trying to outdo each other in charging rock bottom interest rates.
Raghuram Rajan in an interview said, “unfortunately, a number of macro- economists have not fully learned the lessons of the great financial crisis. They still do not pay enough attention - en passant - to the financial sector. Financial sector crises are not as predictable. The risks build up until, wham, it hits you".
Sensex ended this week down by 0.6% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 1.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Benchmark indices started the week with an upward move led by software services exporters such as Infosys which gained as rupee weakened ahead of RBI's policy review. Market is widely expecting RBI to keep interest rates on hold as inflation is still outside central bank’s comfort zone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Both Sensex and Nifty inched higher as RBI loosen the grip on liquidity more while keeping the interest rates unchanged as expected. Central bank reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50bps to 22% of deposits (SLR is the amount of liquid assets such as gold or govt. (approved) securities, that a bank must maintain as reserves other than the cash). This move will help banks to channel more funds into productive sectors of the economy.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets snapped as RBI policy review effects get absorbed in the market. Lenders such as SBI and ICICI fell on worries that RBI move of reducing SLR requirement and amount of bonds in held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio will led to rise in yields and decline in value of their debt holdings. The existing benchmark 10-year bond yield surged 10bps to 8.83%, its biggest single-day rise in four months, on Tuesday and an additional 2bps on Wednesday.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets continued to trade weaker as both Sensex and Nifty declined by 0.3% on profit booking. Geo-political concerns also weighed on the investors’ mind.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.7%
Investors continued to stay cautious as US President Barack Obama authorized targeted air strikes in Iraq. There was a sell-off in global markets on rising worries of another drawn-out conflict in the region.
The governor did acknowledge that the fight with inflation is far from being over and there needs to be more cautiousness and patience on the street before he gets into the rate cutting mood.
The highlight of the week was Governor Raghuram Rajan warning that global markets are at the risk of a "crash". The culprit he identified was the loose monetary policy game developed economies are playing where they are trying to outdo each other in charging rock bottom interest rates.
Raghuram Rajan in an interview said, “unfortunately, a number of macro- economists have not fully learned the lessons of the great financial crisis. They still do not pay enough attention - en passant - to the financial sector. Financial sector crises are not as predictable. The risks build up until, wham, it hits you".
Sensex ended this week down by 0.6% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 1.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Benchmark indices started the week with an upward move led by software services exporters such as Infosys which gained as rupee weakened ahead of RBI's policy review. Market is widely expecting RBI to keep interest rates on hold as inflation is still outside central bank’s comfort zone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Both Sensex and Nifty inched higher as RBI loosen the grip on liquidity more while keeping the interest rates unchanged as expected. Central bank reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50bps to 22% of deposits (SLR is the amount of liquid assets such as gold or govt. (approved) securities, that a bank must maintain as reserves other than the cash). This move will help banks to channel more funds into productive sectors of the economy.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets snapped as RBI policy review effects get absorbed in the market. Lenders such as SBI and ICICI fell on worries that RBI move of reducing SLR requirement and amount of bonds in held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio will led to rise in yields and decline in value of their debt holdings. The existing benchmark 10-year bond yield surged 10bps to 8.83%, its biggest single-day rise in four months, on Tuesday and an additional 2bps on Wednesday.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets continued to trade weaker as both Sensex and Nifty declined by 0.3% on profit booking. Geo-political concerns also weighed on the investors’ mind.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.7%
Investors continued to stay cautious as US President Barack Obama authorized targeted air strikes in Iraq. There was a sell-off in global markets on rising worries of another drawn-out conflict in the region.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Jul 28, 2014 - Aug 1, 2014
Sensex ended this week down by 2.5% while Nifty was down by 2.4% and Midcap down by 0.2%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Investors continued to book profits in the blue chips names ahead of the derivative expiry this week. RBI monetary policy review on next Tuesday will be the next catalyst for Indian stocks.
Tuesday – Markets closed on Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id)
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.7% Markets went up slightly after Bharti Airtel, Lupin Ltd and Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd posted results better than street expectations. The gains were capped ahead of derivative expiry, expected Fed statement later in the day and lower than consensus L&T results.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap up by 0.1% Markets fell on the derivative expiry day weighed down by FII sales after not so impressive numbers from Maruti Suzuki and HCL Technologies. Cadila Healthcare also slumped 4.5% USFDA made certain observations after conducting a "product specific" inspection of its Moraiya manufacturing plant.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.6%, Nifty down by 1.5%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty declined nearly by 1.5%, marking their biggest single-day fall in nearly 3-1/2 weeks in tandem with global market peers ahead of U.S. jobs data. Some analysts are anticipating that a strong US job report will prompt Fed towards interest rate hike, effectively slowing down the interest rates fueled rally across the globe.
Sunday, July 27, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - July 21, 2014 - July 25, 2014
The earnings season is here. Investors have now moved on from the rhetoric generated from budget session and have now put their noses back to where they should belong – corporate earnings numbers. So far, the government has been playing to the FII gallery and moving fast on their reform agenda – tweaking laws, creating more enabling environment, removing confusions over controversial policies and implementing steps to allow more foreign capital.
In the near term, investors are going to focus on earnings numbers – L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel and HLL are lined up for next week. RBI policy review on August 5 will also be keenly watched for any macroeconomic commentary and inflation/interest rate signals.
Sensex ended this week up by 1.9% while Nifty was up by 1.7% and Midcap down by 1.9%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets went up led by rally in Reliance Industries after it reported quarterly earnings better than street estimates. In near term, markets will remain driven by corporate earnings as no new trigger is in sight.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Sensex and Nifty surged more than 1% and traded near their all-time highs led by telecom stocks following Idea Cellular's better-than-expected earnings. Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular both rallied more than 5% as sentiment around telecom stocks improved.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Benchmark Indices continued on their winning run bolstered by gains in IT and banking leaders on upbeat earnings, higher capital inflows and positive global cues. TCS attained a market valuation of over Rs. 5 lakh crores (or about $84bn) for the first time. Bank of Baroda gained around 3% after RBI removed the stock from its caution list, allowing FIIs to invest in it. Jet Airways also rose around 4% after its chairman discussed its restructuring plan involving selling planes and renegotiating debt.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Sensex and Nifty rose to their record highs after decision to raise FDI limit in insurance got cabinet approval. Modi government is doing its best to revive foreign interest in India and raising the FDI limit from 26% to 49% in capital starved insurance sector highlights its reform agenda. Cairn India slumped by 7% as company disclosed a related party transaction worth $1.25bn in the form of loan facility to parent Vedanta Group. Analysts have always been wary of this move where the new promoter group might take advantage of cash pile of Cairn India to fund their other projects – a step widely considered detrimental to minority shareholders’ interest.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.6%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 1.3%
Markets took a breather on Friday after continuously rising for nine sessions. Tata Motors declined most in six months after JLR price cuts in China raised concerns on margins in a key market.
In the near term, investors are going to focus on earnings numbers – L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel and HLL are lined up for next week. RBI policy review on August 5 will also be keenly watched for any macroeconomic commentary and inflation/interest rate signals.
Sensex ended this week up by 1.9% while Nifty was up by 1.7% and Midcap down by 1.9%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets went up led by rally in Reliance Industries after it reported quarterly earnings better than street estimates. In near term, markets will remain driven by corporate earnings as no new trigger is in sight.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Sensex and Nifty surged more than 1% and traded near their all-time highs led by telecom stocks following Idea Cellular's better-than-expected earnings. Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular both rallied more than 5% as sentiment around telecom stocks improved.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Benchmark Indices continued on their winning run bolstered by gains in IT and banking leaders on upbeat earnings, higher capital inflows and positive global cues. TCS attained a market valuation of over Rs. 5 lakh crores (or about $84bn) for the first time. Bank of Baroda gained around 3% after RBI removed the stock from its caution list, allowing FIIs to invest in it. Jet Airways also rose around 4% after its chairman discussed its restructuring plan involving selling planes and renegotiating debt.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Sensex and Nifty rose to their record highs after decision to raise FDI limit in insurance got cabinet approval. Modi government is doing its best to revive foreign interest in India and raising the FDI limit from 26% to 49% in capital starved insurance sector highlights its reform agenda. Cairn India slumped by 7% as company disclosed a related party transaction worth $1.25bn in the form of loan facility to parent Vedanta Group. Analysts have always been wary of this move where the new promoter group might take advantage of cash pile of Cairn India to fund their other projects – a step widely considered detrimental to minority shareholders’ interest.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.6%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 1.3%
Markets took a breather on Friday after continuously rising for nine sessions. Tata Motors declined most in six months after JLR price cuts in China raised concerns on margins in a key market.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - July 14, 2014 - July 18, 2014
Markets started off the week low as absence of any big bang reform from the budget continues to irk some investors. Now that the budget euphoria is over and reality has kicked in, many investors are realizing the strong undercurrents in the economy. The macro environment is improving, the trade esp. exports numbers are picking up, inflation showed a decline and RBI in tandem with the govt. came to the rescue of ailing infrastructure sector with its exemption on reserve requirements.
The best part is that the govt. knows its task and is very devoted to achieve it. Next month it is going to take a call on the sale of $3.0bn worth of PSU stake.
I’ll say that the budget was just a starting point not the ending. Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost!
Sensex ended this week up by 2.5% while Nifty was up by 2.7% and Midcap up by 4.8%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Benchmark indices continued to trade on weak momentum, falling for the fifth consecutive session. FIIs have turned sellers and have disposed $120.6mn worth of stock on Friday, after been continuously buying $1.6bn worth stocks for previous six sessions into the budget.
There was a major setback for drug industry after India's drug pricing regulator cut and capped the prices of more than 100 drugs used to treat diseases. Sanofi India, with the largest basket of anti-diabetes and heart disease medicine lost more than 10% as its revenue is expected to hit by Rs.139 crores in this fiscal year alone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 2.3%
Sensex and Nifty took a break from falling and rose about 1% each after June inflation data showed consumer inflation slowing to the lowest since January 2012. CPI eased to 7.31% after Modi govt. curbed farm exports.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Infrastructure and related stocks went up as RBI exempted long term bonds raised for lending to the sector from reserve requirements. Investors are happy as banks, and hence the infra companies would now have access to more funds at lower costs. India also released its trade data, which showed 10.22% y-o-y rise in exports in June as external demand picked up amid weaker currency environment.
Thursday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Sensex and Nifty continued to trade in green led by infra related stocks which remained buoyed on previous day’s news. Improved rain prospects also led to some sentiment improvement. The focus has now moved to corporate earnings with TCS set to release its numbers later in the day.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
IT stocks rallied on the great set of numbers from TCS, which reported a 45% growth in its bottomline. Lenders continued to gain after the reserve requirement relied from RBI. Shares of NBFCs which take gold as collateral, surged after RBI issued draft guidelines for those seeking a license to set up a payments banks or a small bank.
The best part is that the govt. knows its task and is very devoted to achieve it. Next month it is going to take a call on the sale of $3.0bn worth of PSU stake.
I’ll say that the budget was just a starting point not the ending. Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost!
Sensex ended this week up by 2.5% while Nifty was up by 2.7% and Midcap up by 4.8%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Benchmark indices continued to trade on weak momentum, falling for the fifth consecutive session. FIIs have turned sellers and have disposed $120.6mn worth of stock on Friday, after been continuously buying $1.6bn worth stocks for previous six sessions into the budget.
There was a major setback for drug industry after India's drug pricing regulator cut and capped the prices of more than 100 drugs used to treat diseases. Sanofi India, with the largest basket of anti-diabetes and heart disease medicine lost more than 10% as its revenue is expected to hit by Rs.139 crores in this fiscal year alone.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 2.3%
Sensex and Nifty took a break from falling and rose about 1% each after June inflation data showed consumer inflation slowing to the lowest since January 2012. CPI eased to 7.31% after Modi govt. curbed farm exports.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Infrastructure and related stocks went up as RBI exempted long term bonds raised for lending to the sector from reserve requirements. Investors are happy as banks, and hence the infra companies would now have access to more funds at lower costs. India also released its trade data, which showed 10.22% y-o-y rise in exports in June as external demand picked up amid weaker currency environment.
Thursday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Sensex and Nifty continued to trade in green led by infra related stocks which remained buoyed on previous day’s news. Improved rain prospects also led to some sentiment improvement. The focus has now moved to corporate earnings with TCS set to release its numbers later in the day.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.5%
IT stocks rallied on the great set of numbers from TCS, which reported a 45% growth in its bottomline. Lenders continued to gain after the reserve requirement relied from RBI. Shares of NBFCs which take gold as collateral, surged after RBI issued draft guidelines for those seeking a license to set up a payments banks or a small bank.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - July 07, 2014 - July 11, 2014
The most anticipated week since the general elections have concluded this Friday with Sensex experiencing a wild swing of more than 1200 points. Markets easily reached the all-time high status on Monday rising on hopes of “game-changing” budget, and ended the week in red after sky high hopes met the ground. To be fair, investors were expecting too much too soon. I will argue that FM did a good job of trying to prepare a solid fiscal ground for future growth. I bet that lot of subsidies would have got the axe if not for the fear of high inflation and weak monsoons. I will still give FM a modest 7/10. You can read my budget analysis here.
Sensex ended this week down by 3.6% while Nifty was down by 3.8% and Midcap down by 8.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Markets continued to roll on the expectations of better earnings expectations from Infosys and hopes of a fiscally prudent budget from Narendra Modi govt. FIIs have bought more than $10.5bn worth of equities so far this year.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 4.3%
Investors’ hopes were dashed as railway budget presented by govt. was devoid of any radical plan to turnaround railways. The budget also lacked specifics about much touted PPP route to raise funding for projects and was short of fresh ideas.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 1.6%
Markets continue to fall after railway budget turned out to be a bummer. Economy survey also highlighted the need for tough measures to shore up public finances and reduce inflation, raising expectations of a prudent and a non-populist budget.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Budget day saw wild swings in the Sensex and Nifty levels. Investors were struggling to get a handle over the slew of measures announced by newly appointed FM. While the budget speech nailed the fiscal consolidation part, it lacked any growth stimulating measures, which spooked the markets, which ended the eventful day in red.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 3.2%
Markets continued to fall as investors booked profits amidst the disappointment over what few analysts call a “mile wide and inch deep” budget. With budget now out of the way, investors have trained their guns on global markets, earnings season and monsoon.
Sensex ended this week down by 3.6% while Nifty was down by 3.8% and Midcap down by 8.1%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Markets continued to roll on the expectations of better earnings expectations from Infosys and hopes of a fiscally prudent budget from Narendra Modi govt. FIIs have bought more than $10.5bn worth of equities so far this year.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 4.3%
Investors’ hopes were dashed as railway budget presented by govt. was devoid of any radical plan to turnaround railways. The budget also lacked specifics about much touted PPP route to raise funding for projects and was short of fresh ideas.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 1.6%
Markets continue to fall after railway budget turned out to be a bummer. Economy survey also highlighted the need for tough measures to shore up public finances and reduce inflation, raising expectations of a prudent and a non-populist budget.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Budget day saw wild swings in the Sensex and Nifty levels. Investors were struggling to get a handle over the slew of measures announced by newly appointed FM. While the budget speech nailed the fiscal consolidation part, it lacked any growth stimulating measures, which spooked the markets, which ended the eventful day in red.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 3.2%
Markets continued to fall as investors booked profits amidst the disappointment over what few analysts call a “mile wide and inch deep” budget. With budget now out of the way, investors have trained their guns on global markets, earnings season and monsoon.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Budget 2014 - Economy before Markets
Arun Jaitley presented his maiden budget on Thursday. The expectations from the budget were running high since the Modi govt got elected to power with clear majority. Narendra Modi's election campaign was rife with promises of reforms, employment and better days ahead. This budget, along with the railway budget presented on Tuesday were closely watched as they signaled the real intentions of new govt in power. It was not just investor's but the general public's way of finding out whether Modi govt can walk the talk.
Arun Jaitley, in a limited time and little maneuvering room available to him did a good job. He presented a budget which clearly indicated that India meant business. He, through his policy announcements tried to build a strong foundation for pro-growth path ahead. He did not fell in the trap of announcing reform measures to make stock market investors happy. Rather, he kept the focus on the audacious task of bringing economy house in order now, so that the benefits of growth can be reaped by all later.
But this budget was also not without few misses and disappointments. Many investors expected some announcement of doing away with controversial tax laws which FM has deliberately chose not to address. He explained his reasoning here in this interview. He also did not mention any policy to strengthen the recovery mechanism for banks.
Most investors were keen to find out how FM will create a balance between fiscal consolidation and kickstart the growth cycle. FM bravely accepted the challenge of capping the fiscal deficit target at ambitious 4.1% set by his predecessor. The fact that markets would not have blamed him or his govt on seeing a higher target number clearly sets out the intentions of the new govt. How much success will he meet only time will tell. For now, we can see and check the math behind the numbers and see for ourselves how much of these targets are achievable.
To meet the fiscal deficits target, FM seems to rely heavily on aggressive tax collections targets and divestment proceeds. The tax revenue is assumed to grow by 19.8% over actual FY14 figures with nominal GDP growth estimate of 13.4%. This tax revenue target is difficult to achieve, if not entirely impossible. The implicit assumption of tax elasticity of 1.5 in the tax revenue target is more reasonable during boom times, not when economy is trying to get out of pits.
Also, a third of tax revenues is corporate taxes which depend on their profitability, something which is beyond govt control. It will be unfortunate if govt resort to tax terrorism like its predecessor. In the event of not meeting their targets, they may have to hike their divestment targets.
Speaking of divestment targets, govt is hoping to net Rs. 63,425 crores in proceeds. Private companies have raised Rs. 12,000 crores via QIPs (which were heavily oversubscribed) in last few months. With India receiving $20bn annual FII inflows, the divestment target does not look unreasonable. Most analysts/economists expects govt to put its stake in Coal India and ONGC on block for retail investors soon. This will not only help achieve divestment targets, they will also help govt to adhere to SEBI prescribed promotor stake limit.
All in all, I think govt is on right track prioritizing fiscal consolidation over pro-growth measures. It would have been easy for govt to get carried away as country struggles with low growth rates, high inflation and threats of weak monsoons and drought situations. Instead, FM focused on getting the house in order, tightening the belts while trying not to hurt the wallet of general public and preparing the ground for better days ahead.
Arun Jaitley, in a limited time and little maneuvering room available to him did a good job. He presented a budget which clearly indicated that India meant business. He, through his policy announcements tried to build a strong foundation for pro-growth path ahead. He did not fell in the trap of announcing reform measures to make stock market investors happy. Rather, he kept the focus on the audacious task of bringing economy house in order now, so that the benefits of growth can be reaped by all later.
But this budget was also not without few misses and disappointments. Many investors expected some announcement of doing away with controversial tax laws which FM has deliberately chose not to address. He explained his reasoning here in this interview. He also did not mention any policy to strengthen the recovery mechanism for banks.
Most investors were keen to find out how FM will create a balance between fiscal consolidation and kickstart the growth cycle. FM bravely accepted the challenge of capping the fiscal deficit target at ambitious 4.1% set by his predecessor. The fact that markets would not have blamed him or his govt on seeing a higher target number clearly sets out the intentions of the new govt. How much success will he meet only time will tell. For now, we can see and check the math behind the numbers and see for ourselves how much of these targets are achievable.
To meet the fiscal deficits target, FM seems to rely heavily on aggressive tax collections targets and divestment proceeds. The tax revenue is assumed to grow by 19.8% over actual FY14 figures with nominal GDP growth estimate of 13.4%. This tax revenue target is difficult to achieve, if not entirely impossible. The implicit assumption of tax elasticity of 1.5 in the tax revenue target is more reasonable during boom times, not when economy is trying to get out of pits.
Also, a third of tax revenues is corporate taxes which depend on their profitability, something which is beyond govt control. It will be unfortunate if govt resort to tax terrorism like its predecessor. In the event of not meeting their targets, they may have to hike their divestment targets.
Speaking of divestment targets, govt is hoping to net Rs. 63,425 crores in proceeds. Private companies have raised Rs. 12,000 crores via QIPs (which were heavily oversubscribed) in last few months. With India receiving $20bn annual FII inflows, the divestment target does not look unreasonable. Most analysts/economists expects govt to put its stake in Coal India and ONGC on block for retail investors soon. This will not only help achieve divestment targets, they will also help govt to adhere to SEBI prescribed promotor stake limit.
All in all, I think govt is on right track prioritizing fiscal consolidation over pro-growth measures. It would have been easy for govt to get carried away as country struggles with low growth rates, high inflation and threats of weak monsoons and drought situations. Instead, FM focused on getting the house in order, tightening the belts while trying not to hurt the wallet of general public and preparing the ground for better days ahead.
Sunday, July 6, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 30, 2014 - July 04, 2014
Sensex ended this week up by 3.4% while Nifty was up by 3.2% and Midcap up by 5.2%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Markets closed the first quarter of fiscal year 2015 with a 13.5% gain, recording the best quarterly gain for Sensex since second quarter of FY2010. All recent gains made by the stock markets are attributed to Narendra Modi led BJP govt with its economic reform agenda coming into power.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex and Nifty rose again as auto companies such as Maruti Suzuki India surged after reporting stronger monthly sales. HSBC also released its PMI index data that indicated slight gain to 51.5 in June from 51.4 in May.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Both Sensex and Nifty surged again after FM called for more fiscal prudence and warned against mindless populism. FM tried to reinstall the confidence in his govt with a reminder that inflation and high fiscal deficits are his main targets and challenges.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Markets took a breather after four consecutive closing in green. Both Sensex and Nifty declined slightly with a technical snag on BSE halting the trading for three hours.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets ended this week in positive territory as investors brace for budget session on July 10. Lot of money – both domestic and foreign is riding on the expectations that PM and FM will deliver a credible and fiscally prudent budget and will have catalysts to revive the Indian economy.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 16, 2014 - June 20, 2014
According to the Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas, India imported about 13% of its crude oil requirements from Iraq last year and this year was planning to take that figure to 20%. Iraq is the second largest crude producer in the OPEC group. With only half of the supplies covered so far, India has to rush to other players to secure oil – likely at higher prices now. According to one govt. estimate, oil price can rise to $120 per barrel for several months and may hit the govt. budget by atleast $3.3bn.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.5% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 0.7%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade lower as Iraq crisis weigh on investor’s mind. Brent rose to $113 per barrel, a nine-month high as ISIS strengthens its position in Iraq. Rise in crude prices coupled with weak monsoon can spell trouble for India. WPI for May came in about 6% - five month high due to higher food and fuel costs.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.3%
While rising oil prices has put Indian finance ministry in a difficult position, such is not the case with oil and gas companies. Indian upstream sector gained as investors lapped up shares on expectations of margin expansion. Sentiment on the street remained positive with investors buying in every decline.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Rising crude prices seems to make everybody apart from upstream companies very nervous. Sensex and Nifty slumped again as rising crude prices raised concerns about higher inflation and govt.’s finances. Rising crude prices have also hushed the chatter about interest rate cuts.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Oil and Gas stocks slumped on concerns that India may allow higher gas prices only for incremental output from existing fields. Brent crude also hit a further high of $115 per barrel as fighting intensifies in Iraq.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty continued to trade lower as investors continued to focus on Iraq issue in short term. Market is expecting major reforms in the first budget of Modi govt. but situation in Iraq has made things little difficult with rising crude prices feeding into higher inflation and deficits.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.5% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 0.7%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade lower as Iraq crisis weigh on investor’s mind. Brent rose to $113 per barrel, a nine-month high as ISIS strengthens its position in Iraq. Rise in crude prices coupled with weak monsoon can spell trouble for India. WPI for May came in about 6% - five month high due to higher food and fuel costs.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.3%
While rising oil prices has put Indian finance ministry in a difficult position, such is not the case with oil and gas companies. Indian upstream sector gained as investors lapped up shares on expectations of margin expansion. Sentiment on the street remained positive with investors buying in every decline.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Rising crude prices seems to make everybody apart from upstream companies very nervous. Sensex and Nifty slumped again as rising crude prices raised concerns about higher inflation and govt.’s finances. Rising crude prices have also hushed the chatter about interest rate cuts.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Oil and Gas stocks slumped on concerns that India may allow higher gas prices only for incremental output from existing fields. Brent crude also hit a further high of $115 per barrel as fighting intensifies in Iraq.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty continued to trade lower as investors continued to focus on Iraq issue in short term. Market is expecting major reforms in the first budget of Modi govt. but situation in Iraq has made things little difficult with rising crude prices feeding into higher inflation and deficits.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 9, 2014 - June 13, 2014
Friday slump in markets due to rising oil prices amid continued violence in Iraq may jeopardize the best laid plans of Modi govt. Not only the rising crude oil prices will have debilitating effect on subsidies, it will also let in more inflation.
All this will tie FM’s hands who wants to install some sort of fiscal tightening and do away with lot of welfare schemes. Any attempt to clamp down welfare spending during rising inflation environment may not go down well with general public.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.7% while Nifty was down by 0.5% and Midcap down by 2.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty continued their ride up as anticipation of reforms build up. Some rally was seen in fertilizer stocks after govt disclosed plans to raise the price of urea by at least 10%.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty unchanged while Midcap down by 0.5%
Indices took a breather as investors booked profits in recently rallied names. Yet, the sentiment on the street remain bullish as market heads into first budget of Narendra Modi govt in first week of July.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Markets snapped after touching all time highs. Investors booked profits in infrastructure and capital goods stocks which has outperformed recently. FIIs continued to show confidence in Indian equities and bought $115.2mn worth of shares on Tuesday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty showed some gains in anticipation of positive economic data release later in the day. A Reuters survey found economists expecting CPI easing to 8.4% in May vs. April number of 8.59%.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Rising violence in Iraq led to scare in the market with crude oil rising to its nine-month high taking a toll on Indian stocks also. Sensex and Nifty both slumped 1.4% as investors fear rise in subsidies and trade deficits if high crude oil price persists. There was a bit of positive news from the economy as industrial growth rebounded. Retail inflation also dropped to 8.4%, a three-month low - signs of an economic revival that could offset the threat of patchy summer rains.
All this will tie FM’s hands who wants to install some sort of fiscal tightening and do away with lot of welfare schemes. Any attempt to clamp down welfare spending during rising inflation environment may not go down well with general public.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.7% while Nifty was down by 0.5% and Midcap down by 2.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty continued their ride up as anticipation of reforms build up. Some rally was seen in fertilizer stocks after govt disclosed plans to raise the price of urea by at least 10%.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty unchanged while Midcap down by 0.5%
Indices took a breather as investors booked profits in recently rallied names. Yet, the sentiment on the street remain bullish as market heads into first budget of Narendra Modi govt in first week of July.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Markets snapped after touching all time highs. Investors booked profits in infrastructure and capital goods stocks which has outperformed recently. FIIs continued to show confidence in Indian equities and bought $115.2mn worth of shares on Tuesday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty showed some gains in anticipation of positive economic data release later in the day. A Reuters survey found economists expecting CPI easing to 8.4% in May vs. April number of 8.59%.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Rising violence in Iraq led to scare in the market with crude oil rising to its nine-month high taking a toll on Indian stocks also. Sensex and Nifty both slumped 1.4% as investors fear rise in subsidies and trade deficits if high crude oil price persists. There was a bit of positive news from the economy as industrial growth rebounded. Retail inflation also dropped to 8.4%, a three-month low - signs of an economic revival that could offset the threat of patchy summer rains.
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 2, 2014 - June 6, 2014
Another week of record highs on Indian bourses. Sensex and Nifty are moving up as bears struggle to find any negative catalyst to put a brake on upward journey.
Modi govt has taken the complete charge of New Delhi and is urgently seeking to reboot the economy. It has initiated and publicly announced its intentions to completely overhaul the existing structure of subsidies and doles and get fiscal house in order.
All eyes on budget session now; which will begin in first week of July.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 4.9% and Midcap up by 8.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.8%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Sensex and Nifty gained as PSU banks rallied on hopes the govt will rationalize the shareholding structure by selling some of its holdings. Investors seems to have shrugged off release of another sub-5% GDP growth numbers as they keenly await RBI’s policy review meeting on Tuesday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Key benchmark indices gained as RBI held rates steady and toned down its hawkish stance hinting at a rate cut in coming review meeting. RBI also allowed more funds into the system for lending by cutting down on SLR by 50bps. Sugar stocks rallied on expectations that govt might push blending ethanol in petrol and increase the import duty to support local prices.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty retreated from their record closing highs as IT companies fell on concerns of stronger rupee. Rupee has gained around 4% so far this year and is among the best performers among the Asian currencies. Fertilizer stocks rallied on hopes that the govt will soon clear outstanding subsidy payments. Insurance companies also some rally on the expectations that govt will raise FDI limit to 49% from 26%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Sensex and Nifty made another record closing high as resource stocks led by Sesa Sterlite gained on positive momentum based on revival of Indian economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Another day of record close high of both Sensex and Nifty. Investors continued to stay bullish over the policy reforms (about to be) initiated by govt. FIIs continue to invest heavily in Indian markets with total purchase so far being $8.3bn this year.
Modi govt has taken the complete charge of New Delhi and is urgently seeking to reboot the economy. It has initiated and publicly announced its intentions to completely overhaul the existing structure of subsidies and doles and get fiscal house in order.
All eyes on budget session now; which will begin in first week of July.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 4.9% and Midcap up by 8.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.8%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Sensex and Nifty gained as PSU banks rallied on hopes the govt will rationalize the shareholding structure by selling some of its holdings. Investors seems to have shrugged off release of another sub-5% GDP growth numbers as they keenly await RBI’s policy review meeting on Tuesday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Key benchmark indices gained as RBI held rates steady and toned down its hawkish stance hinting at a rate cut in coming review meeting. RBI also allowed more funds into the system for lending by cutting down on SLR by 50bps. Sugar stocks rallied on expectations that govt might push blending ethanol in petrol and increase the import duty to support local prices.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty retreated from their record closing highs as IT companies fell on concerns of stronger rupee. Rupee has gained around 4% so far this year and is among the best performers among the Asian currencies. Fertilizer stocks rallied on hopes that the govt will soon clear outstanding subsidy payments. Insurance companies also some rally on the expectations that govt will raise FDI limit to 49% from 26%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Sensex and Nifty made another record closing high as resource stocks led by Sesa Sterlite gained on positive momentum based on revival of Indian economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Another day of record close high of both Sensex and Nifty. Investors continued to stay bullish over the policy reforms (about to be) initiated by govt. FIIs continue to invest heavily in Indian markets with total purchase so far being $8.3bn this year.
Sunday, June 1, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 26, 2014 - May 30, 2014
Elections are over. New govt is in place. The country is in midst of (sort of) growth crisis. Time has come for govt to roll up its sleeve.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 5, 2014 - May 9, 2014
And Sensex does it again. Indian markets driven by huge expectations from the coming (hopefully) BJP govt got a major spurt when PM candidate Narendra Modi declared on prime time that his party will form the most stable and strong govt in Indian history after Rajiv Gandhi. You can watch the full interview here. Any party to get a clean majority needs to score atleast 272 seats in general elections. Many exit polls and election survey predicts that there are chances that BJP (or current form of NDA) will do better than that.
A stable and decisive govt at the centre will certainly raise hopes of Indian investors, as trillions of rupees worth of projects are gathering dust in various govt departments waiting for approvals. Any govt formation that will expedite project approvals, unshackle the invested capital and get new (or better) jobs for our aspiring citizens is certainly welcome by public and businesses alike.
Sensex ended this week up by 2.6% while Nifty was up by 2.4% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty slightly up by 0.1%, Midcap flat
Markets recovered a little after continuously falling over past five sessions. Sentiment although remains bearish as regional shares falls on news that China's April PMI has contracted for fourth consecutive month.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investors showed some confidence in Indian stocks as key benchmark indices rose to touch its week high. HSBC PMI index showed some improvement (48.5 in Apr vs. 47.5 in Mar) but still languished below 50 mark indicating contraction, not growth, keeping hopes of expansion in hiring activities at bay.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Sensex and Nifty plunged due to heavy selling in IT counters amid weak global cues and rupee hitting a month high against US dollar. Investors are keeping an eye on US Fed testimony in congress related to continuous decline in value of USD while continuously hoping that tensions in Ukraine do not escalate into a full-fledged war.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Investors continued to stay cautious as Indian general elections entered its last phase. BSE Sensex and Nifty recovered slightly from their recent lows as investors picked up some of the battered stocks. Indian market also got some sentiment uplift from dovish comments by US Fed Chair and upbeat Chinese trade data that suggested some signs of recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 2.9%, Nifty up by 3.0%, Midcap up by 1.9%
Sensex and Nifty surprised all watchers as indices soared to touch their all time highs amidst weak trading sentiment ahead of election results. BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s interview previous night – where he declared that his party is getting clear majority probably lifted the mood of investors. Investors bought stocks in droves as country nears the closing of more bitterly contested general elections in its history on Monday.
A stable and decisive govt at the centre will certainly raise hopes of Indian investors, as trillions of rupees worth of projects are gathering dust in various govt departments waiting for approvals. Any govt formation that will expedite project approvals, unshackle the invested capital and get new (or better) jobs for our aspiring citizens is certainly welcome by public and businesses alike.
Sensex ended this week up by 2.6% while Nifty was up by 2.4% and Midcap up by 1.6%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty slightly up by 0.1%, Midcap flat
Markets recovered a little after continuously falling over past five sessions. Sentiment although remains bearish as regional shares falls on news that China's April PMI has contracted for fourth consecutive month.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investors showed some confidence in Indian stocks as key benchmark indices rose to touch its week high. HSBC PMI index showed some improvement (48.5 in Apr vs. 47.5 in Mar) but still languished below 50 mark indicating contraction, not growth, keeping hopes of expansion in hiring activities at bay.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Sensex and Nifty plunged due to heavy selling in IT counters amid weak global cues and rupee hitting a month high against US dollar. Investors are keeping an eye on US Fed testimony in congress related to continuous decline in value of USD while continuously hoping that tensions in Ukraine do not escalate into a full-fledged war.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Investors continued to stay cautious as Indian general elections entered its last phase. BSE Sensex and Nifty recovered slightly from their recent lows as investors picked up some of the battered stocks. Indian market also got some sentiment uplift from dovish comments by US Fed Chair and upbeat Chinese trade data that suggested some signs of recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 2.9%, Nifty up by 3.0%, Midcap up by 1.9%
Sensex and Nifty surprised all watchers as indices soared to touch their all time highs amidst weak trading sentiment ahead of election results. BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s interview previous night – where he declared that his party is getting clear majority probably lifted the mood of investors. Investors bought stocks in droves as country nears the closing of more bitterly contested general elections in its history on Monday.
Monday, May 5, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 28, 2014 - May 2, 2014
This one should be a quick one. Electricity woes made a big comeback in Ghaziabad. And we had two days of trying to conserve as much (power) we can – by stressing our invertor as little as possible. So, I had to delay my writing of this commentary and now I am doing it from my office so I should make this one quick.
All eyes are on results of general election to be announced on May 16. Market in short term will continue to be swayed by earnings results, inflation and other official economic stats released by govt – unless ofcourse Ukraine crisis turn into a major one. US has already put its economic (powerhouse) machine in motion – building pressure on Russia by way of sanctions. Let’s hope it does not escalate into something bigger and dangerous.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week down by 1.3% while Midcap was down by 0.8%
Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Cautious sentiment prevailed in the market as ongoing results season till date has shown increase in topline growth but decline in operating margins. Add to the mix the uncertainty of election outcome and you get a heady cocktail of increasing volatility. Investors also remained wary ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meet starting Tuesday, coming at a time of continued tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
Tuesday – Sensex and Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Key benchmark indices closed lower as investors continued to book profits. Slowdown in capital inflows and MET forecast of below average rainfall continues to weigh on investors’ mind.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 1.3%
No change in sentiment visible on the street. Continues to be weighed down by global cues (read Ukraine crisis) and domestic uncertainties related to earnings season and elections.
Thursday – Markets closed on Maharashtra Day
Friday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty both continued their falling trend as profit booking increases and indices failed to attract fresh buying. All eyes are on outcome of general elections now.
All eyes are on results of general election to be announced on May 16. Market in short term will continue to be swayed by earnings results, inflation and other official economic stats released by govt – unless ofcourse Ukraine crisis turn into a major one. US has already put its economic (powerhouse) machine in motion – building pressure on Russia by way of sanctions. Let’s hope it does not escalate into something bigger and dangerous.
Sensex and Nifty ended this week down by 1.3% while Midcap was down by 0.8%
Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Cautious sentiment prevailed in the market as ongoing results season till date has shown increase in topline growth but decline in operating margins. Add to the mix the uncertainty of election outcome and you get a heady cocktail of increasing volatility. Investors also remained wary ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meet starting Tuesday, coming at a time of continued tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
Tuesday – Sensex and Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Key benchmark indices closed lower as investors continued to book profits. Slowdown in capital inflows and MET forecast of below average rainfall continues to weigh on investors’ mind.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 1.3%
No change in sentiment visible on the street. Continues to be weighed down by global cues (read Ukraine crisis) and domestic uncertainties related to earnings season and elections.
Thursday – Markets closed on Maharashtra Day
Friday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty both continued their falling trend as profit booking increases and indices failed to attract fresh buying. All eyes are on outcome of general elections now.
Sunday, April 27, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 21, 2014 - Apr 25, 2014
As country made progress through election and earnings season, there is bound to be volatility in both main street and dalal street expectations and sentiments. As our elections have become more personality driven, our benchmark indices are also seeing activity specific to some stocks only. Whether the country or the markets will rise above the personality or stocks cult and will broaden its horizon will get clear only after elections are over and there is some clarity on what kind of leadership we are going to end up with.
Earnings results disappointments and MET warning have already made clear that we are not out of woods yet, and time has come for us to re-check our growth assumptions and turnaround hopes.
Sensex ended this week up by 0.3% while Nifty was flat and Midcap up by 0.7%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Benchmark indices rallied to their record highs led by surge in banking stocks ahead of their expected stronger results this week. Mining stocks also got relief from SC order to allow mining up to 20mt of iron ore per year in Goa leading to a bit of rally there. AstraZeneca India rose by more than 4% after the Sunday Times reported an expected bid of its parent company by Pfizer Inc for an estimated £60bn.
Tuesday - Sensex, Nifty and Midcap all ended flat
Sensex and Nifty rose to their record highs during the day but ended almost flat at the end of trading session as monthly derivative expiry advanced to Wednesday. Thursday is holiday for exchanges due to general elections voting in Mumbai on that day.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap flat
Markets were in cheery mood on the day of derivative expiry as both Sensex and Nifty hit record highs for a third session in row. Indices were led by gains in infrastructure and banking stocks on hopes the worst was over in terms of deterioration in asset quality.
Thursday – Markets closed as Mumbai goes to polls for General elections
Friday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key market indices took a beating on last day of the week as heavyweights such as ICICC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Cairn India etc disappointed with their results. The earning shocker has sent the investors double checking their growth assumptions. MET department also worsened the sentiment after predicting lower than average rainfall this year.
Earnings results disappointments and MET warning have already made clear that we are not out of woods yet, and time has come for us to re-check our growth assumptions and turnaround hopes.
Sensex ended this week up by 0.3% while Nifty was flat and Midcap up by 0.7%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Benchmark indices rallied to their record highs led by surge in banking stocks ahead of their expected stronger results this week. Mining stocks also got relief from SC order to allow mining up to 20mt of iron ore per year in Goa leading to a bit of rally there. AstraZeneca India rose by more than 4% after the Sunday Times reported an expected bid of its parent company by Pfizer Inc for an estimated £60bn.
Tuesday - Sensex, Nifty and Midcap all ended flat
Sensex and Nifty rose to their record highs during the day but ended almost flat at the end of trading session as monthly derivative expiry advanced to Wednesday. Thursday is holiday for exchanges due to general elections voting in Mumbai on that day.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap flat
Markets were in cheery mood on the day of derivative expiry as both Sensex and Nifty hit record highs for a third session in row. Indices were led by gains in infrastructure and banking stocks on hopes the worst was over in terms of deterioration in asset quality.
Thursday – Markets closed as Mumbai goes to polls for General elections
Friday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key market indices took a beating on last day of the week as heavyweights such as ICICC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Cairn India etc disappointed with their results. The earning shocker has sent the investors double checking their growth assumptions. MET department also worsened the sentiment after predicting lower than average rainfall this year.
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