Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 23 - Dec 27, 2013

2013 is coming to close. Markets registered a gain on last week of this year as it did in the first week of this year. Highlights of this year were all the noise around QE tapering from US Fed that led to a roller coaster ride for our currency and stock markets. Although, it all turned out to be a whimper but it did give a wakeup call to Indian govt. to get its act together. Add to all this mayhem the cancellation of POSCO and ArcellorMittal plans to setup plants in India, scams, inflation, gang rapes, policy paralysis, rating downgrade warnings and uncertainty around elections. So, there was the ground, seven layers of shit and then us.

Nonetheless, our markets recovered their old glory as Sensex made new highs. Market rejoiced as veterans returned to take care of their broken legacies; stalwarts were appointed to guide our way through fiscal mess, save rupee and general public from scourges of inflation; and anti-corruption wave made way for more business friendly governments and ushered into a new era as a one year old party made people realize that their voices are not unheard.

As many of the above problems have remained unsolved, hope has emerged as country prepares to elect its new leadership in 2014. Let us hope for an even better and interesting 2014.

I wish a very happy and prosperous new year to my readers.

Sensex gained 0.5%; Nifty gained 0.6% while CNX Midcap was up by 2.5% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Upward movement during the first half of the trading day was capped by late selling seen in Infosys, which saw exit of another key management personnel, HDFC, which saw some profit booking after RBI said inflation fighting is still their topmost priority. Market momentum stayed bullish as global indices firmed up though some volatility generally increases near F&O expiry date.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets remained choppy as investors stayed cautious ahead of F&O expiry on Dec 26. Global markets also remained range-bound due to light trading activity ahead of holiday season.

Wednesday – Markets closed on occasion of Christmas

Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Trading activity was mute on the F&O expiry day. Axis Bank rallied surged after the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved proposal to increase foreign investment in the bank from 49% to 62%.

Friday – Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Market closed the week higher led by gains in export-oriented sectors such as IT and Pharma as US data showed improved recovery in employment situation. Banks and FMCG also gained as street expects inflation data to be lower in January and RBI to maintain status quo on rates.

Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 16 - Dec 20, 2013

Quite a week for Indian markets. With Fed’s tapering decision out of the way and uncertainty related to Indian govt’s stand on KG D6 gas price revision cleared, investors and business got another major sentiment boost from RBI governor who decided not to raise rates even in the midst of rising inflation. Therefore, what resulted is Sensex regaining 21,000 level while focus now shifted to food inflation data, which, if strengthened, may warrant a rate hike from RBI.

Sensex gained 1.8%; Nifty gained 1.7% while CNX Midcap was up by 3.1% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex failed to gain ground as impending rate hike concerns, post high inflation numbers, have kept the street nervous. Street is widely expecting a repo rate hike of 25bps to 8.00% in Dec 18 policy review. Recent govt data shows that costly vegetables, particularly potato and onion has pushed the November WPI to 7.52% from 7% previous month while CPI has jumped to 11.24% warranting inflation controlling measures from central bank.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets traded in the narrow range as investors stayed cautious ahead of RBI policy review meet on Wednesday.

Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
RBI sprung a surprise as it decided to maintain the status quo and left the rates unchanged. Investors’ sentiments turned bullish as RBI governor Raghuram Rajan indicated lowering of inflation in near term due to falling vegetable prices but promised to act if inflation did not subside as expected.

Thursday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.4%
There was some selloff as Fed announced $10bn of tapering every month. Neither the selloff nor the tapering decision came as a surprise. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline.

Friday – Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets went up as Fed’s QE tapering decision is finally out of its way and as expected did not have major impact on either stocks or currency. Sensex got a major boost as govt. finally cleared Reliance Industries’ demand of higher gas prices while asking them to deposit a guarantee equivalent to any incremental revenue. With this decision, govt has cleared lot of uncertainties in the oil and gas industry and made easier for foreign companies to invest in India.

Summary of RBI-Analyst Conference Call - Dec 18, 2013

Dr. Raghuram Rajan (RRR): Recent readings suggest that headline inflation, both retail and wholesale, have increased mainly, but not exclusively on account of food prices. There is, however, reason to wait before determining the course of monetary policy. There are indications that vegetable prices may be turning down sharply. RBI has decided to maintain the status quo.

Reserve Bank will be vigilant and will act if expected softening of food inflation does not materialize and it does not translate into a significant reduction in headline inflation in the next round of data releases, or if inflation excluding food and fuel does not fall.

Gautam Rajesh Kumar, Trust Financial Consultancy: Given the fact that stability in Forex market has returned, CAD has come down, liquidity in the banking system is relatively comfortable, what is the comfort level of inflation for RBI to act on policy rate?

RRR: At this point trying to specify a final target is probably premature, but we do want to see both headline and core inflation come down. So we are also interested in seeing headline inflation which includes the food and fuel component also stabilise and fall.

Srinivasa Varadarajan, Mount Nathan Capital Management: In 1QCY14, it is estimated that about $15 billion of the oil swap will mature and will increase the rupee liquidity in the system. Will the period be used to actually push through the government debt swap at that point in time.

RRR: Actually the net amount is less than $7 billion right now. So that is approximately what will have to be repaid overtime. As and when the time comes, we will take a view as to how that repayment happens and it could be settled through an exchange of rupee funds based on the settlement amount. It could also be, the swaps could be rolled over if necessary and of course if market conditions permit, it can also be repaid. 

Namrata Narkar, IDBI Bank: WPI inflation forecast is being placed largely between 6% and 7% for March 2014. How much of deviation from this forecast is tolerable and if the deviation is above the tolerable level, would the composition of such a deviation then hold significant?

RRR: It depends on not just the WPI, but a whole set of other measures. On the WPI we have been very clear on bringing headline below 5 and core below 3. 

Prasanna, ICICI Securities: You have mentioned the negative output gap as a key factor in helping to contain inflation. Does that mean you do not expect the output gap to narrow in coming quarters and therefore you expect FY15 growth to remain around levels observed in H1FY14?

RRR: My personal sense is that with growth at let us say around 5%, we have somewhere between 1.5%-2% output gap at this point. So with that kind of situation, I think it will take a year or two to get back to potential and therefore we have some room or some time in which the output gap will continue to be negative and exert downward pressure on inflation.

Badri Niwas, Citi Bank: Given you have the experience of July, would you give some guidance to the market on whether the RBI will again use monetary policy tools as a defence for the currency in event of disruption risk that you mentioned manifesting?

RRR: There are some people who argue the disruption this time will be more limited, partly because people have already reacted somewhat over the last 3-4 months. And from India’s perspective, we are in a better position because a) our CAD is much more contained, b) our reserves have grown and we have shown an ability to raise funding if necessary and c) We have lost a fair amount in short maturity bond funds which have the ability to leave more quickly and what remains are the longer term funds. 

Anjali Verma, PhillipCapital: RBI is in favour of removing gold import restrictions. Is it the right time to the remove restrictions and what adverse impact it can have on CAD.

RRR: Gold restrictions are distortion and they are a necessary distortion at this point to restore balance to the CAD. But going forward we would not like this distortion to persist and we would like to remove it.

Ashish Kela, Birla Sun Life Asset Management: Dr. Rajan had highlighted the need to provide real returns to savers. What is the plan on this front? Will this play a role in the monetary policy?

RRR: The question of providing real returns to savers is very much on our minds. We do want to restore savings growth and move towards financial savings by households and I think we have to bring inflation down to make sure that these returns are positive. In the meantime there are stop gap arrangements that are part of a longer term strategy. One example of that is inflation indexed bonds in which real returns are fixed at1.5%.

Rajeev Malik, CLSA: Given widespread macro level demand supply imbalances, what is the efficacy of a blunt instrument such as interest rate in loading CPI core inflation in the supply constrained economy?

RRR: Some of the areas where we had high inflation- pulses and milk- some of that inflation has come down considerably which means there is a supply response that is kicking in and higher prices are a way to activate that supply response. More generally, even in a situation where there are supply constraints of one kind or the other, to the extent that demand exceeds supply, it creates inflationary pressures, some of it is a necessary price adjustment or relative price adjustment, but some of it feeds into more widespread wage inflation. 

Aastha Gudwani, Birla Sun Life: Are we done with the rollback of exceptional measures taken in July, is the cap on LAF here to stay? If yes, then how do you intend to reinstate repo as the permanent operative rate?

RRR: We have ample liquidity and we are largely, with a little bit of volatility, near about the repo rate as being the operational rate. So in that sense I think we have gone back to normal monetary policy at this point.

Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 9 - Dec 13, 2013

As political events have turned very exciting in the country, it is the boring economics that made investors realize that it cannot remain sidelined for long. This week as investors’ sentiment over exit polls reached a climax in the state election results, markets touch their all time high on first trading session of the week. However, as the reality of the day set in, inflation blew out all the air out of the election bubble.

Sensex fell 1.3%; Nifty lost 1.5% while CNX Midcap was down by 2.1% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Sensex touched a new high as market momentum built up by the exit polls continued. The main opposition and business friendly party BJP win a clear mandate in three out of four state elections strengthening its electoral prospects and chances of forming a government in the centre in May.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets saw some profit booking while new draft regulation from CERC led a major blow to NTPC earnings. NTPC went down by 11% as under new guidelines that are going to implement from April 2014, has kept RoE as the method of calculating incentives but has done some tightening on taxation and expenses front making it difficult for players like NTPC and PGCIL to maintain their current profitability.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets opened lower as weak global sentiment weighed heavily on domestic trading, but good news on CAD front led indices recoup some of their losses. India managed to lower its current account deficit as exports grew by 5.86% in November while imports dip to their two and a half year low following steep decline in gold imports. India’s CAD now stands at $9.22bn as against $17.2bn previous month.

Thursday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Markets were under selling pressure ahead of release of CPI and IIP numbers. Street estimates IIP numbers are going to signal contraction in the economy while CPI numbers will stick in 10% range prompting RBI governor to raise rates.

Friday – Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Worse than expected CPI numbers took its toll on the Indian markets when it recorded its biggest weekly fall. CPI for November came at 11.24% vs. street estimates of 10% range raising the fear of increase in interest rates. Street is now estimating a 25bps hike in interest rates on Dec 18. The market has pared all gains made on Monday after state elections results announcement.

Weekly Market Commentary - Dec 2 - Dec 6, 2013

Indian investors are a happy lot this week. Though tapering sword is still hanging over bullish investor sentiments, it seems investors have lot to rejoice over the coming days. Not just exit polls have sounded a victory for their favorite PM candidate, but it has also forced the govt. to increase the pace of their reforms as a last ditch effort to thwart the current anti-incumbency wave in the country. Govt. is back to its disinvestment ways to fill the deficit gap and is likely to make some reform announcements benefitting power and sugar industries.

Sensex gained 1.0%; Nifty gained 1.4% while CNX Midcap was up by 1.1% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Markets cheered the 2QFY14 GDP growth of 4.8% vs. 4.4% in previous quarter, according to data released by govt. The growth numbers were in-line with street estimates. Also, HSBC PMI index recorded improvement in manufacturing activity for the first time since July. The Index for the manufacturing industry climbed to 51.3 in November from 49.6 in previous month.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap flat
Markets ended up lower as investors resorted to profit booking and cautiousness ahead of Fed’s job report expected at the end of the week. Any improvement in the job recovery may lead to decision in favour of tapering of QE by Federal Reserve. Investors also stayed cautious as India’s capital, New Delhi prepares for polls next day. Even a good announcement from RBI was unable to lift the mood of the market. RBI announced that India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to $5.2bn or 1.2% of GDP in 2Q, from $21bn or 5% last year.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Market sentiments were weak as rise in crude prices added to inflationary concerns. Investors raised concerns that this may lead RBI to raise rates again raising the cost of doing business in the country.

Thursday – Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Markets went up and regained 21,000 levels as exit polls showed BJP coming to power in at least 4 out of 5 states that had elections recently. BJP is widely viewed as business friendly party among the host of other parties contesting the elections. Any success in state elections will be a testimony of BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s popularity and acceptance.

Friday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Exit polls results kept markets up and gave boost to the idea that congress might try to get more reform measures passed in the run up to the main elections in May 2014.

Notes on Indian Gas Policy framework and KG-D6

I have been trying to keep up with developments happening on oil and gas industry front in India for quite some time now. Here, for the benefit of my readers, I am posting copy of my notes on the Indian gas policy and KG-D6 controversy. Although these notes are not comprehensive (I have to work harder), but may give a beginner some headway in the Indian oil and gas industry policy and development space.

 

Brief summary of evolution of Gas Policy in India 

Gas received policymakers’ attention after the discovery of the offshore Bombay High fields by ONGC, from which production began in 1974. 

• By 1984, the government realized the need for a gas distribution network, and set up a separate state-owned company, the Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL), to develop one.
• In the 1990s, as public sector exploration companies failed to make further gas discoveries, the government auctioned off fields that had been ‘discovered’ but not fully developed by NOCs, to joint ventures between private companies and NOCs under production sharing agreements.
• An upstream regulator, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH), was set up in 1993.
• In 1998, the government launched a new regime, the New Exploration Licensing Policy or NELP which was based on PSAs, pitched at greater private and international participation.
• Under the first eight rounds, 234 contracts were signed.
• The ninth round was launched in October 2010. However, bidders have predominantly been domestic private sector companies, and not international companies.
• India also began importing LNG in 2004; it should be noted that, particularly in fertilizers, there was a demand for LNG despite high prices, as prices of the competing input, naphtha were very high.
• In May 2010, the price of ‘administered’ gas was more than doubled from its previously subsidized level; from US$ 1.8 per mmbtu to US$ 4.2 per mmbtu.
• Between 2005 and 2010, APM gas prices remained frozen, with state-owned companies and the Federal government taking on the burden of subsidies. 

 

Gas Pricing Framework

There are three kinds of gas pricing regimes existing in India:

1. Gas prices based on Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) for those gas reserves before NELP. This was around $2.50/mmbtu and was raised later to $4.2/mmbtu.
2. Import prices paid to LNG imports which depend on international prices which were as high as $16/mmbtu and 
3. Arm’s length price based on market for those gas reserves discovered after NELP. For Krishna Godavari basin the government has fixed gas price at a level of $4.20/mmbtu.

 

KG-D6 Controversy

• The $4.2 price was fixed by Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) led by then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee (now President of India) in 2007 and was fixed for 5 years (till Mar 31, 2014).
• RIL’s position is that gas produced from KG-D6 was priced competitively in 2007 but does not reflect the market conditions in 2012. So, RIL is seeking a revision to this price
• Govt invoked the PSC to deny the RIL- BP approvals for 2012-13 budget and recovery of around $1 billion from sale of gas from KG-D6
• PSC Allows govt to conduct audit either through its own representatives or through chartered accountants.
• Petroleum Ministry says approval for budget and work programmes will come after CAG is given the access to records
• RIL maintains that nothing in the PSC permits an audit of operational, commercial and technical decisions of the operator
• The company also maintains that PSC contains no provision that restricts cost recovery through reference to factors like the production level or the extent to which field facilities are utilised.
• RIL attributed the fall in production to the unexpected geology of the area, adding data had established drilling more wells would not have helped.
• RIL says the next stage of its exploration plan for enhancing production is dependent on government approvals. And, it would take four to five years after the approvals for production to rise.
• R S Sharma, former chairman and MD of ONGC (state owned E&P), said it is unfair to withhold approvals, adding RIL does not fall under the purview of CAG. “Decisions in E&P are taken in stages. Characteristics of each block are different, and decisions have to be taken on a case-to-case basis. It is a complex business. It is not like processing, or even the mining industry”.
• Gas output from KG-D6, which peaked to 61.5 mscmd in March 2010 and was set to rise to 80 mscmd by April 2012, has been declining.
• Many believe production is being allowed to fall, as RIL is stuck with a gas price of $4.2 a million British thermal unit till 2014.
• Govt constitutes Rangarajan Committee to resolve gas pricing, profit sharing issues. .
• Rangarajan committee recommends average global prices for domestic gas
• Expected gas price revision is unlikely to benefit Reliance Industries. The clauses in the Cabinet note will not make RIL eligible for any price hike before April 2014.

You can find a compehensive list of all news items that appeared in several newspapers on KG-D6 controversy here.

KG-D6 dispute timeline

In case, a link went dead, you can easily search using the news headline text. 

• April 12, 2000 – RIL signs the PSC with government to develop the KG-D6 basin. (Link)
• Nov 1, 2006 – RIL files amended development plan for KG-D6 with DGH. Production rate to be enhanced to 80 mmcmd from 40 mmcmd. (Link)
• Sept 21, 2008 – RIL has commenced production of hydrocarbons in its KG D6 block of KG basin with crude oil production on Sept 17, 2008. (Link)
• April 1, 2009 – RIL starts natural gas production from KG-D6 fields. (Link)
• Oct 29, 2009 – Production ramped up to about 40 mmscmd. (Link)
• Jan 22, 2010 – Production ramped up to about 60 mmscmd. (Link)
• Feb 21, 2011 – RIL-BP deal announced. (Link)
• June 2011 – CAG report leaked in the media. (Link)
• October 2011 – RIL asks for explanation from ministry preventing cost recovery. (Link)
• November 2011 – RIL seeks arbitration on the matter. (Link)
• April 17, 2012 – RIL and Niko petitioned the Supreme Court asking that the Govt. should nominate an arbitrator. (Link)
• May 3, 2012 – Govt. asked RIL to refund $1.25 bn in production costs. (Link)
• May 30, 2012 – Govt constitutes Rangarajan Committee to resolve gas pricing, profit sharing issues. Committee to submit report by Aug 30, 2012. (Link)
• June 21, 2012 – Niko announced Indian govt. is considering increase in KG-D6 gas prices. (Link)
• Jan 2, 2013 – Rangarajan committee recommends average global prices for domestic gas. (Link)
• Jan 7, 2013 – CAG to begin its audit on Jan 9. (Link)
• Jan 14, 2013 - Gas output from RIL's KG-D6 fields drops to 22 mmscmd. (Link)
• Jan 21, 2013 - Government wants to resolve RIL row over KG-D6 block via talks: Veerappa Moily (Link)
• Jan 22, 2013 - Gas output from RIL's KG-D6 fields drops to all time low of 20 mmscmd. (Link)
• Jan 23, 2013 - Expected gas price revision is unlikely to benefit Reliance Industries. The clauses in the Cabinet note will not make RIL eligible for any price hike before April 2014. (Link)
• Feb 4, 2013 - DGH refused to issue approval letters for the block's work plans and budget since 2010-11. (Link)
• Mar 5, 2013 - Natural gas supplies to power plants has completely stopped after output from the eastern offshore fields dropped to an all-time low of 17.3 mmscmd. (Link)
• Apr 11, 2013 - RIL has shut its ninth well at the main gas fields in the KG-D6 block, leading to output plummeting to an all-time low of 15.5 mmscmd. (Link)
• May 11, 2013 - RIL announced a major gas find more than 4 kms below the sea bed and 2 kms directly underneath the currently producing D1&D3 field in the KG-D6 block off the east coast. (Link)
• June 16, 2013 - In a relief to RIL, Oil Minister has indicated that he may not fully accept DGH's recommendation for taking away 86% of the company's KG-D6 gas block area. (Link)
• July 19, 2013 - The government has given the go-ahead for RIL’s $1.5 billion field development programme for the KG-D6 block. (Link)
• July 22, 2013 - RIL plans to invest $6.5 billion in its KG-D6 gas fields to re-attain natural gas production of up to 60 mmscmd by 2019-20 and regain the lost glory of the prolific block. (Link)
• Aug 7, 2013 - DGH has recommended additional penalty of $781 million (taking the total to $1.786 bn) on RIL for producing less than projected natural gas. (Link)
• Aug 15, 2013 - RIL plans to invest $3.18 billion in R-Series gas field to produce 13-15 mmscmd of gas for 13 years from the D-34 (Dhirubhai-34) discovery in the KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 block. (Link)
• Aug 22, 2013 - 12 power plants solely dependent on KG-D6 gas lying idle. (Link)
• Aug 22, 2013 - ONGC may share KG-D6 infrastructure. (Link)
• Sept 03, 2013 - Government not honouring contracts on KG-D6 gas block, says Reliance. (Link)
• Sept 15, 2013 - Reliance Industries slams oil regulator's move to snatch KG-D6 area.(Link)
• Sept 25, 2013 - If you find more gas in KG-D6, keep it: Angry RIL to govt.(Link)
• Sept 25, 2013 - Govt may hire consultant to end KG-D6 gas row with RIL.(Link)
• Oct 13, 2013 - RIL trashes expert report on KG-D6 output fall.(Link)
• Oct 18, 2013 - RIL, BP to invest up to $10 bn in KG-D6 block: Moily.(Link)
• Oct 22, 2013 - Govt says no to fresh evaluation of whether RIL hoarded KG-D6 gas.(Link)
• Oct 29, 2013 - Oil ministry to ask RIL to surrender 5 KG-D6 gas finds.(Link)
• Nov 12, 2013 - Reliance Industries to furnish bank guarantee (Link)
• Nov 17, 2013 - Non-adherance to KG-D6 plan be taken as default: Panel (Link)
• Nov 18, 2013 - RIL plans to increase KG-D6 gas output (Link)
• Nov 21, 2013 - Govt disallows another $792 mn RIL investment in KG-D6 block (Link)
• Nov 26, 2013 - Reliance Industries' new gas discovery likely biggest ever (Link)
• Nov 26, 2013 - No going back on gas price hikes; notification soon: Moily (Link)
• Nov 27, 2013 - KG output drops to record low (Link)
• Dec 5, 2013 - Reliance Industries's KG-D6 output slips to 10 mmscmd (Link)

Weekly Market Commentary - Nov 25 - Nov 29, 2013

All eyes on Delhi election results on December 8th. These results may act as a precursor to what is in store for Indian investors. As DII turned buyers during the end of November, it seems that street is expecting a rally in December, which may only happen if BJP wins.

Sensex gained 2.8%; Nifty gained 3.0% while CNX Midcap was up by 3.1% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Indian markets went up in tandem with global markets as Iran nuclear deal led to easing of crude prices. The deal is good for India in more than one way. It helps in removing the hindrances from importing crude from Iran, and lower prices benefits in reduced inflation expectations and deficits.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets gave back some of gains it made yesterday as crude prices rebounded and investors booked profits ahead of GDP data release.

Wednesday – Sensex, Nifty and Midcap flat
Markets ended flat as November derivative expiry arrives and investors stay cautious ahead of GDP and fiscal data release expected on Friday.

Thursday – Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.6%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Markets went up on the day of derivative expiry as traders cover their shorts and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers for first time in November, in addition to FIIs who continued stake building in Indian markets.

Friday – Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Markets showed optimism ahead of 2Q GDP data release expected during after-market hours. Consensus on the street is 4.6% of GDP growth. Anything below that will be indicator of adverse impact of recent repo rate hikes initiated by Governor Raghuram Rajan.

Weekly Market Commentary - Nov 18 - Nov 22, 2013

Fed’s tapering stayed the talk of the town as markets look exhausted due to lack of any domestic or global cues. The question of will they cut or will not and when continues to linger over the market’s direction.

Sensex lost 0.9%, Nifty lost 1.0% and CNX Midcap was down by 0.9% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 2.2%, Nifty up by 2.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Market continued to rally after Janet Yellen new chair of Fed Reserve allayed fears over QE tapering. Also, RBI governor Rajan’s statement to have an accommodative liquidity stand strengthened the rupee and boosted the investor sentiment.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Lack of catalysts in the domestic markets makes sure that any rally or euphoria is short lived. Markets were flat as investors stayed cautious and booked profits.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Sensex floundered due to lack of any domestic or global cues. Investors booked profits in banking, IT and capital goods as market sees no new investment and project been announced till the elections are concluded in May.

Thursday – Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.0%, Midcap down by 1.7%
Release of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet spooked the investors globally as it indicated tapering might began in next few months, if economy improves. Fed’s doublespeak is confusing the markets as previous week they indicated any tapering is still far away.

Friday – Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Markets continued to stay cautious as Fed’s comments on tapering confused the investors.

Two charts that says it all

Well, the conclusion of the charts below is crystal clear. The Fed tapering talk in May, which led to sharp depreciation in rupee value, has clearly benefited the firms with significant dollar earnings while domestic environment continues to remain a hurdle. So, the investors should not be overly complacent if Sept quarter results were not as bad as everyone was expecting them out to be. We need to cover a lot of ground on domestic front to substantiate the India fundamental story.

The first chart is from my first weekly commentary in November. It speaks of the divergence in the market performance of different sectors. IT and Pharma with their export earnings have dominated the returns this year.

While the other one from the house of Motilal Oswal speaks of the divergence in the companies with dollar earnings and domestic earnings.

Weekly Market Commentary - Nov 11 - Nov 15, 2013

Global markets continue to anchor on central governors’ announcements for directions. This anchoring is making many market participants nervous. As results season nears its end in India, market is struggling to find any catalyst to move up. And as we know, when indices are not moving up, they are moving down. Can’t stay confused/range bound/flat or in inaction for long.

Sensex lost 1.3%, Nifty lost 1.4% and CNX Midcap was down by 1.1% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Continuing weakness in rupee had its effect on investors. Investors continue to stay cautious as September IIP and October retail inflation numbers are due for release tomorrow.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 1.0%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Although market consensus indicates a recovery in IIP at 3.6% in September vs. 0.6% in August, it is the retail inflation, which is causing nervousness among the participants. Street expects CPI for October to be at 10% vs. 9.84% previous month. Also, car sales, considered by investors as a signal of consumer sentiment, provided little cheer with domestic sales declining 3.9% in October.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Street was little disappointed as IIP numbers came in lower at 2% for September vs 3.6% consensus while CPI was on higher side with rise of 10.09% in October. Investors have again started speculating a rate hike in coming December 18 meeting of the RBI.

Thursday – Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Markets cheered the Janet Yellen’s statement that US economy is still underperforming and Fed will continue its liquidity support for some more time. Janet Yellen is set to replace Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve Governor soon.

On domestic front, Raghuram Rajan again sprung back to action and soothes the nerves of the investors with announcement of 8,000 crores of bond buying program to infuse liquidity in the system.

Friday – Markets closed on occasion of Muharram

Weekly Market Commentary - Nov 4 - Nov 8, 2013

Markets struggled to find ground as Diwali euphoria dies out. In addition, returning of oil companies to source their dollar requirements from market got the rupee falling again, which worried the investors.

Global investors remained nervous over what continues to be their single most important concern: Will there be talks of Fed tapering or not in the next meeting.

Markets lost all the gains they made previous week. Sensex lost 2.5%, Nifty lost 2.6% and CNX Midcap was down by 0.3% this week.

Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Balipratipada

Tuesday - Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets closed down as India’s service sector activity, as measured by HSBC / Markit purchasing managers index, contracted for fourth successive month as economic uncertainty continues. The index improved to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September but continued to stay below 50, which indicates contraction.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Investors are treading cautiously as S&P warned that it might downgrade India’s credit rating if next government fails to chart out a path to bring back the country to high growth. S&P currently has 'BBB-/A-3' sovereign credit rating on India with negative outlook. The rating major will conduct its next review after the general elections, which are due by May 2014; unless the country's fiscal or external standing deteriorates.

Thursday – Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.4%
Markets continued to stay range bound as oil companies return to market for their dollar requirements, which had got investors worried over depreciation in rupee. Any further depreciation in rupee may affect FIIs inflow in the domestic markets.

Friday – Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets continued to stay under pressure, as recent depreciation in rupee value brings back the inflation worries. Rise in inflation or inflation expectations may prompt RBI governor to hike rates again raising the cost of doing business in already reeling economy.

Investors were also cautious ahead of Fed meeting as improving US economic conditions fuelled the talks of tapering by US Federal Reserve.

Weekly Market Commentary - Oct 28 - Nov 1, 2013

Growing inflation, rising NPAs, deteriorating governance and still here we are at record high Sensex. As we all know, this rally is liquidity driven and this liquidity will not stop flowing until March next year. At least that is what street was expecting. I feel unless the rally spreads to midcaps and small caps (as the chart below suggests it hasn’t) it can’t be relied upon and can fizzle out anytime in next two quarters. It is advisable that investors book profits in the names, which have rallied beyond what their fundamentals would suggest.

Sensex gained 2.5%, Nifty gained 2.6% and CNX Midcap was up by 3.5% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Markets were little jittery ahead of RBI monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. A 25 bps repo rate hike is widely expected on the street. Fed is also scheduled to meet on Tuesday to discuss their tapering plans.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.7%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Markets went up as RBI actions were in line with what street was expecting. RBI raised the repo rate by 25 bps while cutting down the MSF rate by the same amount, thereby bringing the difference between them back to normal 100 bps. Mood was also bullish due to Fed’s decision of keeping their liquidity taps open and short coverings ahead of derivative expiry on Thursday.

Wednesday – Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.1%
Markets continued their momentum from previous day but were largely volatile ahead of F&O expiry next day.

Thursday – Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Sensex rose to its all time high amidst the sustained buying from institutional investors who ignored the latest Fed pronouncement of stopping the QE sooner than expected. As of now, market is factoring tapering to begin in March next year.

Friday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Strong support from FIIs and Fed’s decision to continue its QE program for now continued to take Sensex to a new high.

A very Happy Diwali to all

Weekly Market Commentary - Oct 21 - Oct 25, 2013

What might appear to be a dull week was actually quite interesting. Sensex tried to regain its old glory by rising within a handshake distance of all time high. In early 2008, when Sensex was at its peak, everybody (almost) believed India could do no wrong. Today investors are more cautious than ever.

Some bulls reason that current rally is sustainable due to good corporate results. This is not true. Markets are rallying as US Fed decided to defer its QE tapering decision and India benefits as it gets its share of global portfolio allocation.

Better than expectations result (was expectations low or results were actually better) helped the bulls find a fundamental story in the yarn they were already weaving.

Anyways, not all sectors have posted good results. Most of the cement stocks, the sector that should be the early riser in case of recovery, posted 50-80% decline in their quarterly profits.

We believe we want to believe.

Sensex lost 1.0%, Nifty lost 0.7% and CNX Midcap was up by 0.3% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets are range bound, as investors get concerned about valuation levels. Easy liquidity flow continued to prop up the market levels.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.4%
Investors continued to stay cautious as global markets wait for release of US jobs data later in the day. Jobs numbers are one of the critical figures, which US Fed looks out for to decide on its tapering plans.

Wednesday – Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Weak US jobs data firmly pushed expectations for the tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus into next year. Markets opened higher earlier in the day but lost all gains as interest rate sensitive stocks see selling pressure ahead of RBI meeting on Oct 29.

Thursday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Sensex continues to see resistance as most of the stocks stayed in high valuation range while investor’s fear of another rate hike of 25 bps by RBI led to selling in rate sensitive stocks.

Friday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Sensex ended the day in negative after a brief rally during the day. India’s economic fundamentals do not support the current market levels. Investors continued to book profits in IT companies.

Keynes vs Hayek

Econstories surely knows how to make the drab subject of economics into an interesting one. Actually, the one you can rap to. This are the best videos on difference between the economic philosophy of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek.

Watch and learn.

Round I

Round II

Weekly Market Commentary - Oct 14 - Oct 18, 2013

So far, earnings season continues to surprise Indian investors to the upside. As Sensex continues to hover around its all time high, most investors will do well to realize that expectation investing can come as an handy tool a bit before earnings season is about to start. Most investors do not use DCF while analyzing a stock/company. I do though. With so many assumptions and complexities built into it, DCF does not act as a quick tool to help investors/speculators make money. In such a scenario, they can resort to what Michael J. Mauboussin calls Expectation Investing.

Expectation Investing is also knows as Reverse DCF. In this method, instead of trying to value a company (stock) by forecasting free cash flows into the future and then discounting them to current period, you do it the other way round.

You look at the current stock price and then try to find out what assumptions market is building into the price. The analyst can review these assumptions and see whether expectations are excessively high or too low to arrive at the decision of investing in that particular company or not.

The biggest advantage of this method, is as you can see, is it eliminated the need of forecasting. However, this method does not provide a quick way to analyse stocks but when formalized into a framework it can help an investor to make a quick decision.

Finally, as a noted statistician George Box said “All models are wrong; some are useful.”

I urge my readers to share with us their experience with Reverse DCF process, if they have tried it in the past.

Sensex gained 3.1%, Nifty gained 3.2% and CNX Midcap was up by 2.3% this week.

Monday – Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Market party over good Infosys results (guidance) ended early as inflation played spoilsport. September WPI was 6.46% against 6.1% in August and 46 bps above the street estimate of 6%. Surge in inflation has put RBI in a fix and investors on back foot as RBI now will find it difficult to lower interest rates and even may lead to rate hikes to contain the inflationary pressure.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Yesterday’s high inflation numbers led to selling in banking and other rate sensitive stocks. HDFC lost some ground as bank reported its slowest growth quarter in a decade. HDFC earnings increased 27% y-o-y against its record 30% growth in every quarter in last decade.

Wednesday – Markets closed on Eid.

Thursday – Sensex down by 0.6%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets were down as investors resorted to profit booking as Infosys and TCS good results quickly became the story of the past. The market did not move much on the news of deal on US shutdown and debt ceiling. Most talked about event of recent times continued to be ignored by investors in the Indian markets.

Friday – Sensex up by 2.3%, Nifty up by 2.4%, Midcap up by 1.4%
A good close to a rather mute week. Markets went up as corporate earnings continued to surprise. L&T, the capital goods major, reported a 7% rise in quarterly profit beating the analyst estimates. Market sentiment was also boosted by the news that LIC will invest Rs. 40,000 crores ($1.28 billion) into the markets in FY14.

Mohnish Pabrai on his learnings from Warren Buffet

I first came to know about Mohnish Pabrai when a friend recommended his awesome book "The Dhandho Investor" to me in beginning of my investment schooling. The book is, no doubt, one of the best books I have read on Value investing and is a must read for anyone about to venture into the field of analysing business, seeking risk and valuing opportunities.

Today, I am sharing one of his videos where he shares his learning from legendary Warren Buffet. Do watch and learn!

Hat Tip: Alpha Ideas

Weekly Market Commentary - Oct 7 - Oct 11, 2013

Infosys results started the Indian earnings season in style, with markets welcoming the raising of lower limit of FY14 revenue guidance. Meanwhile economic slowdown, falling capex spending and low consumer confidence is leading to muted expectations from 2QFY14 earnings. Sensex companies are expected to grow their earnings by 5-7% led by export-oriented sectors that are going to benefit from rupee depreciation.

Sensex gained 3.1%, Nifty gained 3.2% and CNX Midcap was up by 2.3% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.0%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Concerns over US shutdown led to muted trading in global markets. If fighting political parties did not reach the solution soon, it may considerably dent the ongoing recovery in US economy.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.1%
RBI tried to undo its liquidity tightening measures it introduced when US tapering announcement led to crash in rupee value against major currencies. RBI reduced the MSF rates by another 50 bps to 9% in addition to increasing the duration of lending to the banks from current one day to 7 and 14 days.

Wednesday – Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Indian markets struggled in early sessions as IMF reduced the country’s growth projection to 3.8% in FY14. IMF also sees global growth falling to lowest since financial crisis. Markets recouped all its losses when data showed that trade gap narrowed to the lowest level in 30 months. The trade deficit narrowed to $6.76 billion in September from $10.9 billion in August. Main reason for the fall was govt. moves on tightening gold import which has led to decline in gold and silver imports to just $0.8 billion vs. $4.6 billion a year ago.

Thursday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Investors stayed cautious head of the beginning of earnings season on Friday with IT bellwether Infosys results announcement. Street is not expecting any surprises this earning season and is choosing to be selectively bullish this season.

Friday – Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap flat
Most of the Asian markets closed in green as US political leaders showed some signs of compromise on US shutdown crisis. Infosys results cheered the market as company increased its FY14 guidance to 9-10% from 6-10% guidance previous quarter. Investors also cheered the new draft regulations allowing the establishment of real estate investment trusts in India.

How the economic machine works

One of the best videos from widely respected hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, on how the economy machine functions; how boom and bust cycle occur; what leads to recessions, deflations and expansions in the modern economy.

Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 30 - Oct 4, 2013

Indian markets gained this week primarily due to US shutdown, which inadvertently threw FIIs dollars in its direction. Nothing much has changed in Indian fundamentals though: CAD is still high; cost of funds has not gone down; consumer and business sentiment as reflected by weak PMI data. Even then, market is trading near its highs; is expensive and is very volatile. Though I continue to seek out the reasons to explain these anomalies, and I focus on most important ones, the economy and markets have too many moving parts. Every now and then, in order to explain the movements, I give in to recency effect and attentional bias.

Recency effect is nothing but one’s inclination to explain the process/event occurred, by whatever fresh news/story/event comes to mind. For e.g. markets went up as new RBI governor sworn in.

Attentional bias, on the other hand, is using your current subject under study: one you are most closely paying attention to, to explain every event occurring. For e.g. US shutdown is leading to global market rally as dollar investors have nowhere to go.

However, both examples used above may explain the market movements or state of the economy to some extent but the point is they are not the only ones.

Sensex gained 1.0%, Nifty gained 1.3% and CNX Midcap was up by 1.5% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 1.8%, Nifty down by 1.7%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Indian markets were under pressure ahead of current account data release expected later in the day. An ET poll is estimating CAD to average $23 billion for Apr-Jun quarter vs. $18.1 billion a quarter earlier. Investors are worried that bad CAD data may force RBI to intervene in the market again and may escalate the cost of doing business in the near term.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets went up as RBI promised to infuse liquidity into the system via Rs. 10,000 crores purchase of government securities. Also, CAD figures released previous day came out to be little lower than what market participants were expecting. Gold and oil imports pushed 1Q14 CAD to $21.8 billion i.e. 4.9% of GDP. Indian govt plans to reduce the current account deficit to 3.7% of the GDP in FY14 to meet its $70 billion target.

Wednesday – Markets closed on occasion of Gandhi Jayanti

Thursday – Sensex up by 2.0%, Nifty up by 2.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Indian markets rose, as they became the target of FIIs dollars as current political crisis in United States has led to a shutdown of non-essential govt functionaries. Investors are worried that shutdown may prolong and will jeopardize any recovery of US economy.

Friday – Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 0.2%
Markets ended flat as US dollars continued to flow in leading to increase in the value of Indian currency. The gain was capped as investors were disappointed by weak HSBC PMI data, which fell to 46.1 vs. 47.6 in August indicating contraction in private economy. Realty, auto and consumers gained as govt. decided to infuse funds into PSU banks to help them offer cheaper loans to public and industry.

Lies, Damned lies and Statistics

Statistics is the science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures. - Evan Esar

Admission: I absolutely respect our RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.

Confession: I am not a statistician, but I have attended a course on Econometrics during my MBA. And, from what little I have learned there, I can tell you that you can torture your data to the point it say what you want it to say.

The recent report on composite state development index that was prepared under the chairmanship of Mr. Raghuram Rajan was, for the lack of better word, a half ass job. It is complete noise. It hurts when someone you admire produces a work like this.

I didn’t really understand what possible objective it served, though I am assured it is not a political one, although there was a brief twitter war on the issue of Gujarat being called a less developed state. You can read the full report here.

During my MBA classes, our professor always warned us about the situations when statistical exercise will throw out some outcome that might look nonsensical. You should in that case, take hard look at the variables used. You should check for double counting of data, high correlation fallacy and simply using wrong variables. Well, seems all three errors happened in this report.

Many experts in the field have already reviewed it well, some of them do not agree with it including the sole dissenting voice in the panel, Dr. Shaibal Gupta. You can read some of the  reviews and criticism here, here, here and here. Key criticism of the report are highlighted below:

·       Why to include SC/ST share in population when it is an independent variable and all other variables are dependent variables (outcome variables). Independent variable in this case means it is beyond the realm of any state government to control the number of SC/ST population in their state. So, why to assign points to state based on this variable.

·      Why connectivity index, SC/ST population, female literacy, education all get the same weightage, when we know one is more important than the other.

·       In the real world, can Gujarat be ranked as same as Mizoram and fare worse than Tripura? Maybe I am blind to the development happening in our Northeastern states, but I don’t know anyone wanting to go there to work and live.

·       Why did not use per capita income instead of monthly consumption when per capita income also factors in the employment opportunities available in the state. Migrants sending money to home state could simply drive consumption and may not truly reflect the needs of the residents.

·       How reliable is the source of monthly consumption data when the national surveys used to collect this data have credibility issues.

PS: There is no data available, atleast in the report, wherein you can compare how each state fared on different variables used in index construction.

Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 23 - Sept 27, 2013

Overall, trades seeking to play the Fed-RBI announcement continued to unwind this week and took markets down with them. As second quarter results are upon us and street is not too excited with business environment and expects the results to be boring, indices are failing to find new catalyst to hold their ground. Sensex lost 2.6%, Nifty lost 3.0% and CNX Midcap was down by 0.5% this week.

Monday – Sensex down by 1.8%, Nifty down by 2.0%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets crumbled as investors’ sky-high expectations from the newly appointed RBI governor meets the realities on the ground. As Raghuram Rajan went on making inflation fighting his topmost priority and tightened liquidity, rate sensitives stocks such as banks took a heavy beating.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.0%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Banks continued to see heavy selling as Moody cut the SBI’s local currency and senior unsecured debt rating to lowest investment grade to Baa3 while changing the financial strength outlook to negative. Moody blamed the current weak financial position of bank’s promoter, Indian government as the reason for decline in asset quality, profitability and capital of public sector banks such as SBI.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Investors continue to square off the trades set up in the wake of Fed-RBI meetings previous week, ahead of derivative expiry on Thursday. Financial Technologies stock plunged as its auditor Deloitte Haskins bailed out on the firm and withdrew their audit report after claiming that firm’s financial statements are not reliable.

Thursday – Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets continued to stay volatile as investors unwind their positions on F&O expiry day but ended up little higher as RBI tried to give the market a reprieve by announcing a possibility of conducting OMO to ensure sufficient liquidity in the system.

Friday – Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap flat
October F&O series started on a mute note with markets now turning to corporate earnings announcements expected in October to be low to modest, at best. Banks stayed under pressure as Raghuram went on questioning the strategy of central bankers around the world to keep the interest rates low to stimulate growth.

The Kinda Sutra

Almost everyone has a funny story about where they used to think babies came from. Sundance Documentary short, "The Kinda Sutra," is a look at people's youthful misconceptions about conception. Thought provoking stuff. And in case you're still not sure how babies are made, the kids at the end of the film break it down.

Hat Tip: Alpha Ideas

Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 16 - Sept 20, 2013

India, since Fed announced its tapering plans, got its act together and has done quite well in pushing some key reforms in parliament. RBI on its part took some controversial, but crucial steps to stem the decline in rupee that followed the Fed announcement. Now, when Fed has put a halt on its tapering plans, we all can just keep our fingers crossed and hope that Indian govt. does not become complacent and let go off this lifeline. We hope that reform momentum continues and we get our house in order before the next shitstorm hit us.

Sensex gained 2.7%, Nifty gained 2.8% and CNX Midcap was up by 1.3% this week.

Monday – Sensex flat at 0.0%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Investors were disappointed on Monday as RBI released its WPI inflation figures. RBI while formulating its policies uses WPI data along with CPI as an anchor. According to data released on Friday, retail inflation dropped in August. However unlike retail inflation, WPI rose to six month high to 6.1% in August (July – 5.79%). Market is anticipating that upturn in WPI will make it difficult for newly appointed RBI governor to cut rates.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Investors remain cautious ahead of two key events this week. On Sept 18, Fed will take decision on whether to continue to taper and by how much. Street is expecting tapering of $5-$10 billion every month. Anything above or below that range can cause sharp movements in the indices. Raghuram Rajan has decided to unveil its maiden policy on Sept 20 after getting a handle on Fed announcements. These two events together may hold key to future movements of Indian indices.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Expectations from Fed meeting continue to weigh on the markets. Markets closed higher as FIIs continue to build positions in the Indian markets.

Thursday – Sensex up by 3.4%, Nifty up by 3.7%, Midcap up by 2.9%
Fed surprised the market with announcement of deferring its tapering plans and instead decided to continue with its stimulus amid weak economic growth in US. I already highlighted in June that how the timing of tapering is suspicious as US economy, and with it global economy, continues to struggle. Markets celebrated the decision as day of reckoning for many of emerging economies like India, has deferred to some unknown date in the future.

Friday – Sensex down by 1.9%, Nifty down by 1.7%, Midcap down by 1.3%
In his maiden policy, Raghuram Rajan stumped the investors with a repo rate hike. Repo rate is now 7.25%. Rajan made it clear that fighting the inflation and exchange rate management is his top priority, so there is a need of liquidity tightening. RBI, in a bid to lower the cost of capital of banks, reduced the MSF by 75 bps from 10.25% to 9.5% and slashed the minimum daily CRR requirement from 99% to 95%.

Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 9 - Sept 13, 2013

Receding fears of war with Syria led to cooling of oil prices that in turn led to strengthening of rupee against the global currencies. Rupee also gained strength as FIIs continued to buy Indian shares after newly appointed RBI governor Raghuram Rajan charted out plans to get the country out of its current mess. Sensex gained 2.4%, Nifty gained 3.0% and CNX Midcap was up by 3.4% this week.

Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi

Tuesday - Sensex up by 3.8%, Nifty up by 3.8%, Midcap up by 1.8%
Markets remained buoyant from last week sentiment boost they received from Raghuram Rajan appointment and his maiden speech as RBI governor. Global markets also took respite from the news that Russia has persuaded Syria to put its chemical weapons under international inspection, which worked to shelve the fears of US strike on Syria and led to global rally in stocks.

Telecoms were the major gainers today as TRAI reduced the base price by 37%, from Rs. 2,379cr to Rs. 1,496cr per MHz of pan India spectrum. TRAI also recommended that a flat spectrum usage (SUC) of 3% of gross revenue from 2-8% earlier. Telecom companies are expected to save around 60-80,000cr over a 20-year period.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.0%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets opened lower as some investors rushed to book profits after previous day’s rally, which was biggest gain in Sensex in four years. Market recouped its losses as day progressed as tension over Syria eased leading to cooling of oil price momentum. Also, consistent recovery in rupee is helping boost the Indian investor sentiment.

Thursday – Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Investors turned a little cautious and booked profits ahead of IIP and CPI inflation data release expected on Friday.

Friday – Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.0%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Stocks tumbled after PM’s economic panel raised its doubt over Govt. achieving its fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP in current year. Investors also continued to cut positions ahead of US Fed meeting and RBI first meeting under Rajan next week. Market is keenly awaiting Fed’s decision on tapering and RBI’s response to it.

Bulls did get some respite in form of better-than-expected July 2013 IIP data (+2.6% yoy) and fall in retail inflation to 9.52% in August from 9.64% in July. August WPI data, an anchor used by RBI to decide on its policy decisions, will release on Monday.

Realty Bites - 22 feet down under!

If you happen to be a resident of the region that has witnessed a ramp up in construction activities in past year or two, you must have wondered what is going to happen to prices when all this fresh supply will hit the market when existing inventory is lying unsold.

Do you also think that real estate prices are primed to fall?

Many will argue that Indian demographics is going to come to the rescue of the developers and investors who are hoping to make a quick gain on current real estate rage in India. We have a young population and we are an economy with tons of potential, they say. And, when these two things come together, we have a rosy scenario of higher incomes, higher purchasing power and hence rising demand for new housing. Some people also throw in NRIs and shady politician money into the mix to establish their case.

However, there are problems.

Number one problem is, although we do have lot of young graduates passing out of colleges every year, but we do not have jobs for them. For every one engineering job available, there are roughly 17 aspirants. See here, here and here.

That’s a huge gap! And that’s just engineering I am talking about. Millions other graduates are facing frustrating job markets these days. We will soon have unemployed or underemployed graduates who will be working below their potential and be less productive in what presumably considered best years of employment. That will lead to lesser confidence and lower ability to afford prices at current levels.

We can rule out politician’s illicit money with elections heading our way. None of us are stranger to the fact that billions of rupees being spent on elections every five years. I expect less of real estate buying will be coming from our netas, in fact we may see some unwinding.

Talking about NRIs, they might consider rupee stability before rushing to invest in Indian real estate. If you have been following recent swings in our currency, you would be aware that anyone investing would think twice and may choose to wait for better bargain (in case he/she believes expert opinion of rupee touching 70 in near term). Trust me, it is not easy decision to invest when your $100,000 can buy a 55 lakhs worth of house one day and 65 lakhs the another.

So, we come back to our original question. When Mumbai has unsold inventory of 48 months and Delhi NCR has 31 months, why the real estate prices not falling?

Why real estate prices are not falling when demand is diminishing and there is all gloom and doom in job markets?

Or the real estate prices are falling and our brokers and experts are lying to their teeth when they claim that housing prices never have and never will decline in this country. Well, same thing was told to gullible investors in Japan in 1980s, US in 2005, but we know what happened there.

But if do not trust our developers, brokers or experts for pricing data, who should we trust, you ask. The answer is of course no one. Everyone out there has an incentive to make you trade/invest/buy more so that they can unwind/sell their inventory or make some neat money on commissions. Only some impartial agency which collect and maintain some sort of real estate prices database can help us here. National Housing Board (NHB) is one such agency. NHB releases an index, called NHB Residex, of real estate price changes in tier I and tier II cities. Although it is a broad based index, meaning you cannot expect it to tell you whether Delhi NCR price decline means price decline in South Extension or Rohini or Gurgaon or Greater Noida. Nevertheless, it still can be used as guidance or a tool while making an investment decision.

For benefit of my readers, I am charting out latest NHB residence index data. You will very well see here that prices have declined in 22 out of 26 cities under survey in last quarter.

And no, this case is not an aberration. NHB has been recording fall in prices in major locations across the country for several quarters now. I’ll close the post with this chart that clearly goes out to bust the myth of “housing prices never fall”.

Word Cloud

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Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 2 - Sept 6, 2013

Raghuram Rajan joined at a time when India is reeling under worsening deficit situation, falling forex reserves (lowest in three years) and deteriorating investment climate. Markets gave a warm welcome to his taking charge as it expects liberal policies and easing of monetary policies. Sensex zoomed 3.5% while Nifty gained 3.8% and CNX Midcap was up by 2.7% this week.

Monday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets continued their positive momentum as global stocks rose amid Chinese PMI data increase. Recent spate of reforms introduced in the economy by Finance Minister has buoyed the investor sentiment.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 3.4%, Nifty down by 3.8%, Midcap down by 2.3%
Ongoing crisis in Syria reached a new low as Russia reported missile firing by Israel on its ally. The news led to oil zooming, rupee falling and bloodbath in domestic markets. Indian market was also impacted by S&P credit downgrade warning of Indian economy owing to rising deficits and weaker currency, which again crossed 68 levels against the dollar. The rating agency said there is one in three chances of rating downgrade. To add to India’s misery, Goldman Sachs also cut India’s growth forecast to 4% from 6% earlier and predicted fall of rupee to 72 against the USD.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets recovered after previous day’s carnage with some value buying across the industries. The missile firing reports also turned out to be tests rather than war cry as Russian media reported. Realty stocks fell as RBI asks banks not to disburse the full loan amount for an under construction property. It said loan disbursal should be linked to construction schedule of the property.

Thursday – Sensex up by 2.2%, Nifty up by 2.7%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets gave a big welcome to Raghuram Rajan as he took charge of RBI. Rajan hit the ground running and announced steps to defend the falling value of Indian currency and measures to unshackle the overall economy. You can read his full speech here.

Friday – Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.6%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Overall market sentiment remained positive as RBI announcements indicated strengthening rupee and easing monetary tightening introduced by RBI recently.

Then and Now..

Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 23 - Aug 30, 2013

This week witnessed the most productive parliament in recent history (pardon the oxymoron) where Govt was able to pass two landmark bills viz. Food Security Bill and Land Acquisition Bill. While the jury is still out on whether these bills will be able to help the poor and farmers of the nation or are simple vote fetching attempts of ruling party and will forever drown our poor under behemoth of Indian bureaucracy and corruption, we can be sure of one thing: Rising cost of living.

Sensex gained a little 0.5%, Nifty was flat and Midcap lost 0.8% this week.

Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Markets went up as FM tried to convince investors to expect some good decisions in next one week to attract capital flows to finance our rising current account deficit. In addition, a slump in US home sales allayed the fears of tapering in Fed stimulus spending which boosted the investor sentiment.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 3.2%, Nifty down by 3.5%, Midcap down by 2.4%
Mayhem in the markets as Govt was successful in passing Food Security Bill in Lok Sabha (Lower House of the Parliament). Food subsidy is now expected to cost around 1% of GDP to the exchequer, according to Govt calculations but analysts estimates it to be 3% of the GDP. See my recent post on subsidy bill calculation here. Rupee made all-time low of 68.80 against the dollar as FIIs scrambled for exit.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty flat, Midcap down by 1.1%
Markets recovered a bit from yesterday’s crash as investors hunt for bargains in IT, Capital Goods and Healthcare sector. India’s largest insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India did some buying and provided support to the falling indices. Stocks remained under pressure as sabre rattling in Syria sent the crude price higher and rise in credit risks across the emerging markets.

Thursday - Sensex up by 2.2%, Nifty up by 2.3%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Benchmark index rose dramatically as investors cover their shorts on the last Thursday of the month. Also, RBI’s move to start a forex swap facility to help PSU oil companies meet their daily dollar demand provided support to rupee which gained by 2.5% against the dollar.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.2%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets continued their previous day’s upside momentum as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh clearly stated in his speech in parliament that he will take all measures to fight country’s deficit without bringing in capital controls and reversal of reforms. He also made clear that his Govt is going ahead with reforms including subsidy reduction and implementation of GST.

Have We Bitten More Than We Can Chew...

Reminder to our readers how much impact (read damage) newly proposed Food Security Bill can cause country’s balance sheet.

Hat tip to Surjit Bhalla for brilliant analysis in which he clearly shows Food Security Bill to be costing as much as 3% of India’s GDP, almost equal to total education spending. Read the article here.

Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 19 - Aug 23, 2013

To say that markets were volatile would be an understatement this week. Sensex lost around 700 points in first three days and gained 600 in last two. This week highlights were new lows made by rupee and RBI turning dovish (throwing in the towel?) and attempting easing liquidity in the market after a spell of tightening measures to fight the currency decline (which didn’t work of course, but RBI did claim victory!). Sensex and Nifty ended this week down 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, while CNX Midcap was down 1.6%.

Monday - Sensex down by 1.6%, Nifty down by 1.7%, Midcap down by 1.9%
Markets continue to plunge as investors voted with their feet as currency fell to its new all-time low of 62.81 vs. USD. Govt’s move of clearing few investment projects worth Rs.1,100bn was unable to provide any support to the market.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.6%
Investors’ worries seem not to be abating as any of the RBI measures have failed to stem rupee declines. So far, Indian IT and Pharma stocks have been able to save investors from full scale carnage in the markets.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 1.9%, Nifty down by 1.8%, Midcap down by 1.5%
A fresh low of 64.55 a dollar made by rupee prompted investors to even exit and book profits on their IT and Pharma stocks. RBI, in a bid to ease liquidity in the system and reduce long-term cost of borrowing announced purchase of Rs80bn worth of bonds in the market on Aug 23 and may buy more if required. This RBI action came as a breather to banks and banking stocks rallied amid the falling market.

Thursday - Sensex up by 2.3%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Tape turned green for the first time this week as RBI signaled change in its monetary stance. RBI also stated that its measures on short-term policy rates have stained their objectives, which send a positive signal to the market indicating no more tightening in short term. Bullish sentiment in the market overcame the Fed announcement on continuing tapering of its QE and new low made by rupee against the dollar.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Markets continued their previous day’s upside momentum as investors rushed to bargain hunting especially in capital goods sector, which has been facing lot of bearishness owing to delay in large scale projects in the country and abroad and increase in cost of borrowings.

Weekly Market Commentary - Aug 12 - Aug 16, 2013

This independence day, RBI took away some of the freedom from its citizens and corporate as it introduced measures to cap dollar movement outside the country. While RBI and govt did their best to allay the fears of capital control, it is everybody’s guess what other bad policy decision lies ahead for the market and for how long this drama will continue. Sensex and Nifty went down by 1% each, while CNX Midcap gained 0.4% this week.

Monday - Sensex up by 0.8%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets went up as investors bought stocks amid govt and RBI interventions to prop up rupee. Although the measure adopted by RBI has failed to curb any decline in the rupee value, trade date brought good news as exports grew by ~12% to $26bn in July. SBI’s latest quarterly release indicating worsening asset quality, which is putting a dent on its profitability, capped the investor confidence.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Markets rallied as investors rushed to cover their shorts after recent sharp corrections ignoring the poor IIP data. The index of industrial production (IIP) declined by 2.2% in June while industrial output was 1.1% lower y-o-y. Govt move to hike import duty on gold and silver to curb CAD also cheered the bulls.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Tata group companies saved the day as markets ignored the impact of rise in WPI to 5.79% in July from 4.86% in June. Tata Motors surged around 10% after its unit Jaguar Land Rover reported 21% higher sales in July globally. Tata Steel also beat the street expectations with consolidating net profit surging by 90%.

Thursday – Independence Day Holiday

Friday – Sensex down by 4.0%, Nifty down by 4.1%, Midcap down by 3.1%
RBI spooked the investors as they bring back capital controls and restricted the movement of USD outside the country. RBI on late Wednesday brought back controls on fund flows limiting the investment citizens and domestic companies can do abroad. It also banned the import of gold coins and medallions while introducing fresh measures to attract NRI money. Recent positive developments in US and other developed markets also instilled fresh fears of stimulus tapering from Fed, which added to the bearish sentiment.