Another week of record highs on Indian bourses. Sensex and Nifty are moving up as bears struggle to find any negative catalyst to put a brake on upward journey.
Modi govt has taken the complete charge of New Delhi and is urgently seeking to reboot the economy. It has initiated and publicly announced its intentions to completely overhaul the existing structure of subsidies and doles and get fiscal house in order.
All eyes on budget session now; which will begin in first week of July.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 4.9% and Midcap up by 8.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.8%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Sensex and Nifty gained as PSU banks rallied on hopes the govt will rationalize the shareholding structure by selling some of its holdings. Investors seems to have shrugged off release of another sub-5% GDP growth numbers as they keenly await RBI’s policy review meeting on Tuesday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Key benchmark indices gained as RBI held rates steady and toned down its hawkish stance hinting at a rate cut in coming review meeting. RBI also allowed more funds into the system for lending by cutting down on SLR by 50bps. Sugar stocks rallied on expectations that govt might push blending ethanol in petrol and increase the import duty to support local prices.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty retreated from their record closing highs as IT companies fell on concerns of stronger rupee. Rupee has gained around 4% so far this year and is among the best performers among the Asian currencies. Fertilizer stocks rallied on hopes that the govt will soon clear outstanding subsidy payments. Insurance companies also some rally on the expectations that govt will raise FDI limit to 49% from 26%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Sensex and Nifty made another record closing high as resource stocks led by Sesa Sterlite gained on positive momentum based on revival of Indian economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Another day of record close high of both Sensex and Nifty. Investors continued to stay bullish over the policy reforms (about to be) initiated by govt. FIIs continue to invest heavily in Indian markets with total purchase so far being $8.3bn this year.
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Madhav Marbles - Part II
"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime." - Jim Rogers in Street Smart
There is no doubt that Jim Rogers is one of the best minds on investing we know as of today. He has authored several books sharing his investment philosophy with millions of readers worldwide. He is there on top of my people-whose-advice-I-follow list, right on top with Warren Buffet and Seth Klarman.
What Jim Rogers is essentially saying is what Warren calls "waiting for a sweet pitch" or time "when you can buy a dollar for forty cents". Seth has elaborated on this concept in his book Margin of Safety. He advices his readers to be patient and wait when Mr. Market throws you a deal too hard to resist. And when it does, you go all in.
"The greater the undervaluation, the greater the margin of safety to investors" - Seth Klarman
I intended to write just an update to my earlier blog post on Madhav Marbles. I attribute this pick (too early?) to Peter Cundill's successful strategy of balance sheet investing and ideas and teachings of legendary investors mentioned above.
Mr. Market in its all glory and excitement sometimes throws up a company which is trading way below its liquidation value. You can easily buy the company, sell off the assets at a discount, pay off all the liabilities in full and still have lot of cash to spare.
Madhav Marbles is one such stock in my view. A stock that is so clearly undervalued in the current market - it is neat money just lying there in the corner to be picked up.
I am attaching the updated tables for FY14 results for my readers to see. It is obvious that the stock - though has gained 50% in last four months, is still trading below its liquidation value.
You can read the first part of the post here: Madhav Marbles - Value Buy or Value Trap
Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk, you can lose money on a misprint :)
There is no doubt that Jim Rogers is one of the best minds on investing we know as of today. He has authored several books sharing his investment philosophy with millions of readers worldwide. He is there on top of my people-whose-advice-I-follow list, right on top with Warren Buffet and Seth Klarman.
What Jim Rogers is essentially saying is what Warren calls "waiting for a sweet pitch" or time "when you can buy a dollar for forty cents". Seth has elaborated on this concept in his book Margin of Safety. He advices his readers to be patient and wait when Mr. Market throws you a deal too hard to resist. And when it does, you go all in.
"The greater the undervaluation, the greater the margin of safety to investors" - Seth Klarman
I intended to write just an update to my earlier blog post on Madhav Marbles. I attribute this pick (too early?) to Peter Cundill's successful strategy of balance sheet investing and ideas and teachings of legendary investors mentioned above.
Mr. Market in its all glory and excitement sometimes throws up a company which is trading way below its liquidation value. You can easily buy the company, sell off the assets at a discount, pay off all the liabilities in full and still have lot of cash to spare.
Madhav Marbles is one such stock in my view. A stock that is so clearly undervalued in the current market - it is neat money just lying there in the corner to be picked up.
I am attaching the updated tables for FY14 results for my readers to see. It is obvious that the stock - though has gained 50% in last four months, is still trading below its liquidation value.
Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk, you can lose money on a misprint :)
Sunday, June 1, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - May 26, 2014 - May 30, 2014
Elections are over. New govt is in place. The country is in midst of (sort of) growth crisis. Time has come for govt to roll up its sleeve.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.
Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.
Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.
Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.
Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.
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