Saturday, April 19, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 14, 2014 - Apr 18, 2014

Two steps back and one forward. That is pretty much how I will describe the action on Dalal Street this (short) week. IT stalwarts - Infosys and TCS reported better earnings but gave contrasting guidance, hence making sure the sector stayed volatile during the week. Throw in a bit of inflation and you have investors in every sector running for the corners. The thing about rallies built on hope and hype is that they don’t need much to fizzle. Remember, no matter how big the bubble is, you only need one small pin to burst it.

Sensex and Nifty ended the week at pretty much the same level as last week while Midcap down by meagre 0.2%

Monday – Markets closed on occasion of Baisakhi / Ambedkar Jayanti

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.6%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Markets were down as inflation raised its head again and soared to three-month high figure of 5.7% in March - dashing hopes of any rate reprieve from central bank. Almost all interest rate sensitive stocks fell while IT stocks surged on the back of good earnings reported by Infosys.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.8%
BSE Sensex corrected another 200 points as fear of rising inflation was stoked by the predictions of below normal rainfall this year. IT stocks fell as Infosys guidance pointed to weak outlook for the sector. Retail inflation also rose in tandem with WPI to 8.31% in March, largely driven by higher food prices also made investors cautious.

Thursday - Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.6%, Midcap up by 1.5%
Benchmark indices roared back as banks surged on value buying and hopes of bond portfolio gain as RBI fully sold the Rs.200bn debt it had on offer. IT stocks also rose as TCS and HCL reported better than expected earnings with positive future revenue guidance.

Friday - Markets closed on occasion of Good Friday

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 7, 2014 - Apr 11, 2014

India continues to benefit from lack of alternatives in emerging market space as I already mentioned in my earlier post. Due to limited options, FIIs are pouring money into Indian markets giving the economy disproportionate share of the EM flows.
It remains to be seen for how long this situation will continue. But till then..party ho ri bahut bhayankar! :)

Sensex ended this week up by 1.2% while Nifty was up by 1.2% and Midcap up by 2.5%

Monday - Sensex slightly down by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap down by 0.3%
Benchmark indices closed slightly down as country begins voting for formation of new govt at the centre. Some investors booked profits as Sensex and Nifty breached new record levels in days approaching elections. Sun Pharma leads the gainers on Sensex as company announced its purchase of Ranbaxy in total equity deal of $3.2bn. There was some action seen in cement stocks also after Swiss company Holcim, which holds more than 50% stake in ACC and Ambuja cements announced merger with France’s Lafarge. The combined entity will become the largest cement maker in India.

Tuesday – Markets closed on Ram Navmi

Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.6%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Markets surged to a new high after a brief pause and a break in beginning of the week. Sun Pharma rose by more than 7% as brokers rushed to upgrade the stock after Ranbaxy buy. Most interest rate sensitive stocks gained as investors expects more benign inflation scenario in near term.

Thursday - Sensex up slightly by 0.1%, Nifty flat, Midcap up by 1.2%
BSE Sensex ended slightly higher as gains were capped by profit booking seen in IT stocks as earnings season commences from Apr 15. In addition, investors are cautious ahead of release of IIP data. Other Asian bourses also saw some selling as US markets ended lower on concerns of high valuation of some tech stocks.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Key Indices closed lower as investors prepares for earnings season and release of inflation data next week. Govt data released on Friday showed the trade deficit widening to $10.5bn in March from $8.1bn in Feb due to lower exports.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 31, 2014 - Apr 4, 2014

Elections are coming. This week was a crucial week for the market as it recorded the all time highs our benchmark indices have achieved. This week was also crucial, as its performance will be benchmarked against for comparison in near to medium term to analyze the hope rally. This week also marks the end of wait for the biggest exercise in world’s biggest democracy to begin. The results of this exercise will probably tell the investors – and rest of the country that whether optimism and hope rally did really have any strong legs or was it just another bubble based on euphoria around Narendra Modi.

Sensex and Nifty ended this week flat while Midcap was up by 1.5%

Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Indian stocks benchmark indices went up slightly and closed the fiscal year 2014 close to 20% higher than 2013 as strong foreign buying sparked a rally in stocks leveraged to domestic story. Market also expects RBI governor to hold interest rates on coming review meeting on Apr 1.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Sensex and Nifty continued to record new highs as RBI left interest rates unchanged and brought a relief to investors by saying that it may avoid any more policy tightening in near term.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.5%
BSE Sensex touched another high on the back of heavy FII buying and election commission allowing RBI to grant new bank licenses. Potential bank license candidates led the gainers with IDFC and LIC Housing Finance surging 4% and 5% respectively.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Benchmark indices retreated from their all time highs as caution eclipse the optimism in the market as five-week election process draws closer. Investors booked profits as earnings season is also about to kick off with Infosys announcing its results on Apr 15.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap flat
Market turned to profit booking on the last day of trading before election process begins (on Monday). IMF released a report saying that India’s economic mess is due to internal issues, strongly refuting the UPA govt’s claims blaming external macroeconomic environment for India’s problems.