"In the five years since the 2008 Lehman crisis, capital flow in equities and returns have followed a cycle. Immediately after the crisis, investors switched their focus to the domestic demand story, leading to a sharp rally in consumer goods and automobile companies. That story began to wane by early 2012 as the rupee began to depreciate, on account of a rising current account deficit and economic slowdown in India. Export or dollar revenue-driven companies in pharmaceuticals, information technology and some auto makers became the new darlings for equity investors.Read the full article here: Business Standard
The market has completed a full circle. In the past month, money has begun to flow to investment demand-driven stocks in capital goods, construction & infrastructure, real estate and banking, away from export-oriented sectors. The trigger has been an improvement in the current account deficit, rupee appreciation and expectation of a 'market-friendly' government after elections."
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
So where are we?
Interesting observation from Business Standard on past five year investment cycle in India.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 10, 2014 - Mar 14, 2014
Indian markets reported a weekly loss after ending three consecutive weeks in green. As expected, markets continued to stay volatile ahead of the elections, with somewhat positive momentum. It has been almost six months the key benchmark index, sensex trading above 20k level.
RBI review meeting on Apr 1 will be next key catalyst investors are focusing on. If RBI managed to cut rates, we may expect some more rally in cyclical especially banks and capital goods.
Sensex ended this week down 0.5%, Nifty was down by 0.3% while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9%.
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets continued their positive momentum and sensex traded above 22,000 level for a while and closing at its new record high. Investors continued to show interest in cyclicals while defensives act as source of funds. Market is expected to stay volatile in days ahead of the election with a focus on economic data release on trade deficit, IIP, CPI and WPI in the near term.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Profit booking across the sector led to benchmark indices losing some ground. The fall in trade deficit failed to bring cheer to the market as the data showed decline in exports. The trade deficit lowered to $8.13bn in Feb, which is lowest in past five months.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets closed at almost flat as investors keenly await inflation data release. Inflation and industrial output data are key determinants of RBI interest rate policy that will be up for discussion on April 1.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Benchmark indices climbed to their highs as govt releases inflation stats. Feb WPI inflation declined to 4.68% vs. 5.05% in Jan due to fall in vegetable and fuel prices. However, markets quickly gave up their gains as IT stocks declined after Infosys painted beak future of its business outlook. China’s missing of its industrial growth and retail sales target also add to the selling pressure in the markets.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Indian markets traded weaker during most of the day like their asian and European counterparts on fears that China may be slowing down and standoff on Ukrain may continue or even escalate. But value buying in key sensex and nifty stocks during the end of the day led the benchmark indices closing in the green.
RBI review meeting on Apr 1 will be next key catalyst investors are focusing on. If RBI managed to cut rates, we may expect some more rally in cyclical especially banks and capital goods.
Sensex ended this week down 0.5%, Nifty was down by 0.3% while CNX Midcap was down by 0.9%.
Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets continued their positive momentum and sensex traded above 22,000 level for a while and closing at its new record high. Investors continued to show interest in cyclicals while defensives act as source of funds. Market is expected to stay volatile in days ahead of the election with a focus on economic data release on trade deficit, IIP, CPI and WPI in the near term.
Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Profit booking across the sector led to benchmark indices losing some ground. The fall in trade deficit failed to bring cheer to the market as the data showed decline in exports. The trade deficit lowered to $8.13bn in Feb, which is lowest in past five months.
Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets closed at almost flat as investors keenly await inflation data release. Inflation and industrial output data are key determinants of RBI interest rate policy that will be up for discussion on April 1.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Benchmark indices climbed to their highs as govt releases inflation stats. Feb WPI inflation declined to 4.68% vs. 5.05% in Jan due to fall in vegetable and fuel prices. However, markets quickly gave up their gains as IT stocks declined after Infosys painted beak future of its business outlook. China’s missing of its industrial growth and retail sales target also add to the selling pressure in the markets.
Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap flat
Indian markets traded weaker during most of the day like their asian and European counterparts on fears that China may be slowing down and standoff on Ukrain may continue or even escalate. But value buying in key sensex and nifty stocks during the end of the day led the benchmark indices closing in the green.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
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