Saturday, July 20, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Jul 15 - Jul 19, 2013

Markets were focusing on RBI actions, Fed comments on the macro front, while company's results and inflation numbers were eyed closely on the street. Sensex and Nifty ended this week up by 1.0% 0.3% respectively, while CNX Midcap was down by 0.7%.

Monday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Indian markets continued its upward movement for third consecutive day as inflation numbers released on Friday came within the markets’ expectation and comfort zone of RBI. WPI gain for June was 4.86%, slightly higher than May figure of 4.7%. CPI climbed to 9.87% in June from 9.31% in May.

This upward movement in inflation numbers has increased the problems for RBI, which is facing a dilemma of whether announcing a rate cut to stimulate investments, which may lead to more inflation, or go for a rate hike to help falling rupee, which will lower import cost and hence inflation. We will get to see what RBI does on July 30. My bet is small changes in the underlying rates, or there might be a cut in CRR.

Asian markets were up largely owing to release of Chinese GDP data that matched the forecast of 7.5%.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 1.3%
RBI went undercover (sort of) yesterday evening and increased the marginal borrowing rates for banks by 2% from 8.25% to 10.25% through Marginal Standing Facility (MSF). RBI, in its attempt to halt the declining rupee is trying every trick in trade available to it, led to sell off in the markets as borrowing became more expensive. RBI’s belief that excessive liquidity in the system is leading to rupee volatility also hurts the rate cut expectations.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Mixed day for markets as investors sentiment got a boost as govt gave a green signal to FDI in almost a dozen sector, including telecom and defence sector. Global sentiment was little cautious ahead of Fed meeting where all eyes were on Fed comments on timing of their plan of cutting down on bond purchases. Investors also focused on value picking the FMCG stocks while avoiding the banks and other interest rate sensitive space. Street was not very happy with HDFC Bank results, as its net profit grew by 30% y-o-y but gross NPA levels increased to 16% q-o-q indicating stress on their balance sheet. Stock went down 2.4%.

Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets went up further after Fed comments on being flexible about the timing of cut in stimulus spending boosted the sentiments. Global markets went up largely as Fed suggests that it may not be too aggressive with tapering plans and will depend upon the performance of underlying economy.

Friday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.8%
The mood stayed positive for second consecutive day boosted by Fed comments. Bank stocks continued to face volatility as market is concerned about RBI current stance of monetary tightening. Street is worried that instead of rate cut may raise CRR. IT major TCS rallied by 5%, as it beat the street expectation of revenue growth while sustaining its margins, which reflect strong account management and execution capabilities.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Jul 8 - Jul 12, 2013

The highlight of this week was Fed comments on sustaining its bond purchases, aka stimulus spending until the moment it sees sustainable development in US economy. Markets across Asia and Europe cheered the statements and rallied as reversals of outflows have made their economies even more vulnerable. Indian markets had another reason to cheer as Infosys posted bested the street expectations. Sensex and Nifty ended this week up 2.4% each, while CNX Midcap was up by 1.1%.

Monday - Sensex down by 0.9%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Markets went down as Indian President agreed to passing of controversial Food Bill Ordinance, which provides 2/3rd of Indian population with legal right to cheap food grains. The food bill is expected to dent a big hole in Indian govt budgetary calculations. Strong US dollar on the back of positive US job data also led to rupee breaching 61 mark and causing nervousness among investors.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 0.8%
Investors’ mood turned positive after rupee recovered sharply as RBI and SEBI announced steps to curb currency speculation. Eurozone markets also rallied as Portugal moves closer to political stability and Greece got another bailout approval.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.5%
Markets slipped as investors turned cautious ahead of Fed meeting, commencement of earning season and release of a bunch of Indian economic data. Refinery stocks came under pressure as RBI in a bid to curb currency speculation directed all state oil companies to use one single bank for their dollar transaction.

Thursday - Sensex up by 2.0%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Markets regained their bullishness as Fed comments of continuing stimulus bolstered the investor sentiment. The comments allayed the fear of flight of foreign flows from emerging markets in hurry and hopefully will put a brake on it. Bank of Japan also reiterated its stance of keeping its bond purchase program unchanged as per market expectation.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Markets continue its upward movement as Infosys the leading IT company, announced results that beat market expectation. The company left its FY14 dollar sales growth guidance unchanged at 6-10%, which boosted the investor sentiment. India's trade deficit in June narrowed to $12.24bn from a 7 month high, helped by slowdown in gold imports. Lowering of trade deficit will hopefully provide a cushion to current account balance and rupee also.

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Jun 24 - Jun 28, 2013

There is a thing with democracies. They squabble over issues/decisions, slows down progress, are mostly unable to reap the benefits of good times and sometimes take action to soothe one interest group which works as detrimental to rest of the country, before realizing it is too late. More often than not, reforms happened with the gun pointing at their head. It was balance of payment crisis in 1991, this time rising deficits and sliding rupee did the trick. Govt finally got its act together and bite the bullet over gas pricing. The war is not yet over as markets are looking at rising external debt. 44% of total external debt is maturing in the next one year which, if not restructured, will eat into 59% of total foreign exchange reserve country has. Chart below, from Livemint, illustrates the situation better.
Sensex ended this week up 3.3%, while Nifty gained 3.1% and CNX Midcap was up by meagre 0.3%.

Monday - Sensex down by 1.2%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Market extended their losses from previous week as the global stocks continue to slid post Fed announcement of curtailing its bond buying program. Market seems to be ignoring the ifs and buts in the announcement and is running havoc with no plan in sight. Markets were also nervous when Chinese central bank made comments to the effect that liquidity in the system is reasonable, when China is facing liquidity squeeze. Central bank suggested fine tuning the system, which market assumed as reducing liquidity. Shanghai went down more than 5%.

Indian markets mirroring their global peers, are also under pressure due to rising CAD worries and fall in currency value. Brokers are of the view that FIIs have sold over $5 billion of debt and equities in June so far.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.6%
The Indian stocks went up in early trade as China tries to soothe investors’ nerves, short covering as F&O expiry nears. Markets also bought oil and gas stocks ahead of pending decision on gas price revision. Gas price were supposed to be revised previous week itself but the decision was deferred as Oil Minister was out for an official tour.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.0%
The Chinese central bank move to provide liquidity to some parts of its financial system to stabilize money market rates cheered the global market. Indian markets had a rangebound session as good news from China, short covering due to nearing F&O expiry was completely offset by rupee playing a spoilsport sliding below 60/$ level.

Thursday - Sensex up by 1.7%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty rallied as investors cheered the downward revision on US GDP data from 2.4% to 1.8%, which eased the concerns of reduced Fed spending. RBI also took advantage of this news and advanced its release of CAD data by one day. India's March quarter CAD came at $18.1 billion, 3.6% of GDP vs. consensus estimate of $21.7 billion or 4.4% of GDP. Corresponding figure for December quarter was 6.7%. The FY13 CAD stood at $88.2 billion and the Q4 Balance of Payments (BoP) stood at a surplus of $300 billion versus a $600 billion deficit year-on-year. Short coverings on the last expiry day of June series also buoyed the market.

Friday - Sensex up by 2.8%, Nifty up by 2.8%, Midcap up by 2.9%
Indian markets rallied as govt got its act together and approved doubling of gas prices from current $4.2/mmbtu to $8.4/mmbtu. The gas price decision was in limbo for several months now as various govt ministries, such as fertilizer, power and oil quarrel over the impact on their respective sectors. This decision was in tandem with the recent approval to power producers to pass on the imported coal cost to the consumers. The new gas pricing will get into force from April 1, 2014 and will work to attract investments in the sector as it makes several projects, big or small, across the country even more economical.

Rupee also rebounded to 59 levels after govt announced reforms to attract investments in the country and reduce country's dependence on imported gas (fuel). Govt has also initiated towards setting up of a coal regulator to settle disputed over quality and quantity of coal sold in the Indian markets. The poor quality of coal has led to squabbling between the country's premier energy producer NTPC and largest coal producer Coal India.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Jun 10 - Jun 14, 2013

Market movements this week were dominated by currency related headlines. Rupee has slumped lower versus dollar and has raised the fears of inflation making a comeback via expensive imports. The selling, which was till recently going on in large cap stocks has spread to midcap stocks as well. Sensex ended this week with a loss of 1.3%, while Nifty and CNX Midcap lost 1.2% and 4.0% respectively.

Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 1.3%
Market traded under the pressure of depreciating currency. Rupee touched a low of 58 versus dollar and stoked inflation fears among the investors. IT stocks went higher will most of the midcap stocks slumped as currency traded lower.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 1.5%, Nifty down by 1.5%, Midcap down by 1.9%
Markets sentiments continued to be weighed down by currency depreciation. Recent good news from RBI related to decline in inflation as shown by downward movement in WPI and CPI have been totally offset by fears of inflation strengthening again as rupee continues to slide against the dollar. FIIs continued to sell Indian bonds as yield difference with US bonds lessen.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.4%
Markets were volatile as the rupee found support in the Economic Affairs Ministry's comments that the fall is a temporary phase and news that RBI has intervened by selling dollars. There were also reports that govt may raise FDI limits to finance CAD.

India also released its IIP and CPI numbers. While IIP growth came lower at 2% in April vs 3.4% in March, May CPI came in at 9.31% vs 9.39% in April. Decline in IIP growth has raised concerns whether RBI will cut rates in an attempt to stimulate growth although RBI's hands will be tied as rupee continues its slump. 

Thursday - Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.1%, Midcap down by 1.9%
Market traded lower as selling continued among no rate cut hopes, rising CAD and higher inflationary expectations.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.9%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Markets took a reprieve from continuous selling it was witnessing from past few sessions as investors hinged their hopes on rate cut from RBI next week after May WPI came lower at 4.7%.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Jun 3 - Jun 7, 2013

This week may seem to be a non-event for the markets on the onset but one major step taken by the Govt recently will go a long way in consolidating its fiscal position. Govt launched inflation indexed bonds. IIBs, as they are called, in an attempt to wean off local investors from gold. Gold, one of the crucial components of our trade deficit has been touching new highs as markets turned volatile, giving the establishment new headache every passing day. How far will IIB go in reducing the country's gold import bill, only time will tell. You can read about IIB here.

Monsoon is here. On June 1, it arrived in Kerala, two days ahead of its time. It is a well known fact that the monsoon rains are very crucial for India, one of the world's largest producers and consumers of food.

Sensex ended this week with a loss of 1.7%, while Nifty and CNX Midcap lost 1.8% and 0.2% respectively.

Monday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.8%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Markets continued its downward movement taking the cues from sub 5% GDP growth announced previous week, weakening in rupee and from the fact that FIIs were net sellers on Friday. The sentiment were further dampened by the results of private survey, PMI, conducted by HSBC which indicated slowdown in manufacturing activity. The survey, which measures the business activity in Indian factories excluding utilities, indicated that index eased to 50.1 in May 2013 from 51 in April 2013, due to fall in output and less new orders. The survey also suggested that employment rose at a slightly faster pace; input prices deflated and output prices declined for the first time since the global financial crisis.

In data released by govt after trading hours on Friday, fiscal deficit for FY13 came in lower at 4.9% of GDP against 5.2% budgeted (revised) in Feb 2013. Fiscal deficit for FY14 is budgeted at 4.8% of GDP.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Markets lost initial gains made earlier in the day as rupee strengthened a bit and ended slightly negative amidst the choppy trade marked by profit booking.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
No strong movements occur during the day. Markets ended slightly up as investors turn to bottom fishing, bargain hunting as markets in other parts of Asia see heavy selling due to fear of reduction in stimulus spending from Fed.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.0%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Absence of any big news flow kept the sensex rangebound. RIL's AGM previous day, was a dull affair with no big bang announcements. Mukesh Ambani made familiar noises about E&P and 4G business.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Markets are trading nervous as rupee seems to be heading southward. Global environment has turned cautious after Fed's indication of tapering of its stimulus spending in case US economy gains upward momentum.

Friday, May 31, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - May 27 - May 31, 2013

We started the week with big bang news of another potentially huge discovery in KG-D6 by RIL and ended the week with weak, but expected sub 5% 4Q GDP numbers.

In the context of current Indian market performance, you can safely say that current volatility is the by-product of easy liquidity and uncertain economic environment. Every new economic data brings with it the question everyone is asking, whether this is the last of the bad news we are receiving. With every data release, we hear experts talking about Indian market bottoming out. But have we?

Current GDP figures are at decade low, consumption is showing decline, rupee is falling, RBI is dithering on rate cuts and Indian investor is choosing to stay away from stocks making our markets even more vulnerable to sudden FII outflow which could prove disastrous to the economy. This week sensex made a small gain of 0.3% while Nifty and CNX Midcap ended flat.

Monday - Sensex up by 1.7%, Nifty up by 1.7%, Midcap up by 1.2%
Sensex zoomed past 20K mark, gaining more than 350 points in the process. Main catalyst was Reliance Industries late Friday announcement of big gas discovery in KG D6 basin. Company is planning to start appraisal drilling soon to ascertain the amount of gas discovered. It remains to be seen how much of this gas, Reliance, can actually drill out commercially. Discovery also gives Reliance an additional weapon to strongly pursue market pricing of gas with govt. RIL, along with its partner BP are currently negotiating for higher price for their KG-D6 gas which is strongly contested by Petroleum Ministry and Fertilizer Ministry. There was also some short covering seen in the market, as current F&O contract expires this week.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.6%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets remained cautious ahead of GDP data announcement on Friday. Coal India, country's largest coal supplier, which reported earnings post market hours previous day, reported a jump of 35%, beating the consensus estimates, on the back of higher supplies and lower employee expenses. Company also announced its decision to hike prices by 10%.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.6%
No major movements in Sensex, as markets focus on Friday GDP data announcement and F&O expiry. Sun Pharma, country's top drugmaker by market value, reported 23% rise in 4Q profits and announced a bonus share issue.

Thursday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.1%
Sensex made small gain as investors cover up their position on the day of F&O expiry. Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra beat the consensus estimates while ONGC reported a decline in 4Q profit on the back of lower sales and higher payment on statutory levies.

Friday - Sensex down by 2.3%, Nifty down by 2.3%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets went downhill as GDP grew at mere 4.8% in 4Q and 5% for full fiscal year 2013. Though, the street was expecting sub 5% GDP figure for 4Q, it was the comments from RBI which set the bearish tone pushing the investors towards the exit. RBI governor maintained it cautious stance suggesting that inflation data still has upward risk while current account position stays out of comfortable range. These comments deprived the market of any rate cut hopes in June meeting and led to selling across the board. Rupee also took the hit and is trading now at close proximity of 57 to a dollar.

Friday, May 24, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - May 20 - May 24, 2013

This week saw even bigger movements in Sensex than previous week. Sensex moved almost 850 points between its low and high this week. Ben Bernanke's comments on halting its bond buying program aka stimulus spending send global markets in tailspin. Another issue that was on the mind of Indian investors was falling INR as US economic recovery gains pace, strengthening US dollar. Sensex fell by 2.9%, Nifty fell 3.3% while CNX Midcap dropped by 4.5%.

Monday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Markets tried to maintain its bullish momentum from previous week, but failed. Though market largely ignored the S&P downgrade warning, stocks went down as latest Ranbaxy scandal put the entire Indian healthcare sector on dock, which led the losses on Sensex.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.6%, Nifty down by 0.7%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Markets were nervous as bulls turned cautious ahead of the Ben Bernanke comments on Wednesday. In the recent times, FIIs buying has pushed the Sensex closer to its highs, with net buying of record $13.5bn this year alone. This highly speculative buying, abetted by easy liquidity, makes the Indian markets heavily dependent on any newsflow from US Fed.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap down by 1.1%
Sensex was in negative again, as L&T results, barometer of performance of domestic economy, were weaker than expected. Company pared its orderbook guidance which raised the doubts on underlying economy fundamentals. Markets remained on shaky ground as investors booked profits ahead of Fed meeting.

Thursday - Sensex down by 1.9%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 2.1%
Sensex slumped around 400 points as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at turning off the spigot of easy liquidity. Things were made worse as Rupee weakened on USD strength and SBI and BHEL posted weak 4Q results.

Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Markets tried to regain some ground as investors turned to bargain hunting. Overall breadth remained positive.

Friday, May 17, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - May 13 - May 17, 2013

This was a rather volatile week for the markets. Sensex recorded more than 650 pts movement between its low and high for the week. Market experts made the familiar noises to explain the rationale: whenever market falls, call it profit booking and when it gains, call it FII buying or easy liquidity. Major highlights of this week were the CAD number which came higher than expectation, primarily on gold imports. Call it hedging or sentiments, but investors seems not heeding any call from PC. It also showed that our experts, including the FM has still not got handle of the situation. Markets had something to cheer about in form of lower inflation numbers which raised the hope of rate cut from RBI. Sensex recorded a gain of 1.0%, Nifty gained 1.5% while CNX Midcap rose by 2.2%

Monday - Sensex down by 1.9%, Nifty down by 1.9%, Midcap down by 1.6%
Markets saw heavy selling pressure on Monday as investors booked profits. The continuing rally snapped as trade deficit numbers rattled the markets. Country's April trade deficit increased to $17.8bn due to huge spike in gold imports. Gold imports increased by massive 138% yoy and 72% qoq to $7.5bn. The news of declining retail inflation to 9.39%, falling for second consecutive week, failed to cheer the markets. Retail inflation dropped due to decline in prices of vegetables, edible oil and protein-based items. CPI stood at 10.39% in March.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets stayed rangebound trying to recover from the carnage previous day. All eyes are on WPI data, which street expects to fall further to 5.3% in April against 5.96% in March.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 2.5%, Nifty up by 2.5%, Midcap up by 2.1%
Interest rate sensitive stocks such as banks, auto led the rally on the expectation/hope of a rate cut from RBI and took Sensex back to 20K. The headline inflation fell to 4.89%, lower than market expectation of 5.3%. Core inflation, or non food and fuel manufacturing inflation also declined to 2.74% in April 2013 from 3.41% in March 2013. Market sentiment also turned positive post RBI statement of taking note of falling inflation data when considering potential rate cuts.

Thursday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.4%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Markets consolidated a bit, but stayed positive, after huge rally in stocks previous day. Nifty closed over its 30 month high.

Friday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Markets had a choppy session. Overall breadth and sentiment stayed positive.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - May 6 - May 10, 2013

Markets continued its bullish trend as easy liquidity flows in; Bullish mood across the world financial markets after major central banks jumped on the global stimulus bandwagon to battle economic headwinds as well as record foreign fund flows had largely triggered the current round of rally. Sensex recorded a gain of 2.6%, Nifty gained 2.5% while CNX Midcap rose by 1.4%

Monday - Sensex up 0.5%, Nifty up 0.5%, Midcap up 0.9%
Markets stayed rangebound with positive tone on the back of FIIs buying shares in Indian companies.

Tuesday - Sensex up 1.1%, Nifty up 1.2%, Midcap up 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty both made their 13 weeks high as global liquidity keep flowing into Indian stocks. The government is looking to launch a Rs 20,000-crore share sale by divesting 10 per cent equity in Coal India, which will single-handedly meet half of this year's disinvestment target and is expected to be completed by September 2013.

Wednesday - Sensex up 0.5%, Nifty up 0.4%, Midcap flat
Sensex crossed the psychological level of 20,000 for the first time since Jan 31. Global liquidity keeps the shares buoyed.

Thursday - Sensex down 0.3%, Nifty down 0.3%, Midcap down 0.7%
Investors booked profits in some blue-chips that registered gains in last few sessions ahead of March IIP tomorrow and a weakening trend elsewhere in Asia and Europe.

Friday - Sensex up 0.7%, Nifty up 0.7%, Midcap up 0.3%
Sensex closed above 20,000 as India’s industrial production climbed 2.5% from a year ago after a revised 0.5% gain in February. The median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for a 2.4% gain. The central bank forecasts economic growth will accelerate to 5.7% in the fiscal year through March 2014, compared with the baseline projection of 5.5% for the previous 12 months.

Friday, May 3, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 29 - May 3, 2013

Markets continued its upward momentum this week and recorded gain of 1.5% in Sensex, Nifty gaining 1.2% while CNX Midcap rising 2.4%

Monday - Sensex up 0.5%, Nifty up 0.6%, Midcap up 1.2%
Markets went up as Hero Motocorp, HUL and Maruti posted good profits and beat the market estimates.

Tuesday - Sensex up 0.6%, Nifty up 0.4%, Midcap up 0.1%
Sensex made a 6 week high with Unilever announcing $5.4 billion program to raise its stake to 75% in HUL for 600/share. Markets went into negative territory when news of IMF downgrading India's GDP growth estimate from 7% to 6.1%. But markets recovered later when passing of Finance bill assured foreign investors that Tax residency certificate issued by foregin govt will be accepted as certificate of residence.

Wednesday - Markets closed on the occasion of Maharashtra Day

Thursday - Sensex up 1.2%, Nifty up 1.2%, Midcap up 1.2%
Expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut by RBI at its policy review meeting tomorrow and the Centre's recent decision to cut tax rates for foreign investors on interest income from investments in Government bonds and corporate debt to encourage capital inflows boosted market sentiment.

Friday - Sensex down 0.8%, Nifty down 0.9%, Midcap down 0.2%
Markets went down as profit booking occured in interest sensitive stocks. RBI cut its repo rate – key lending rate – by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and kept the CRR intact at 4 percent in line with expectations. D Subbarao speaking after the announcement said the decision to ease the monetary policy rates was taken considering the steep deceleration in the economic growth.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 22 - 26, 2013

Markets continued its upward momentum this week and recorded gain of 1.4% in Sensex, Nifty gaining 1.5% while CNX Midcap rising 1.2%

Monday - Sensex up 0.8%, Nifty up 0.9%, Midcap up 1.8%
The cool-off in inflation has raised the expectations of rate cut and turned the investor tone bullish. Banking stocks gain. FIIs bought 915.8 crores as reported by stock exchanges.

Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty flat at 0.0%, Midcap slightly down by 0.4%
Markets had a choppy session with RIL gaining on the news of govt. clearing oil blocks, while SBI and HDFC losing on profit booking ahead of RBI review meeting.

Wednesday - Markets closed on the occasion of Mahavir Jayanti

Thursday - Sensex up 1.2%, Nifty up 1.4%, Midcap up 0.6%
Markets gained as last thursday of the month saw derivative expiries. FIIIs bought 226 crores while domestic investors sold 528 crores of equity.

Friday - Sensex down 0.6%, Nifty down 0.8%, Midcap down 0.8%
Markets continued to be range bound with domestic investors still staying away, as FIIs continued to build their stakes. The Sensex has dropped 1.3 percent this year, and is valued at 12.9 times projected 12-month profits, compared with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s 10.3 times.

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 15 - 19, 2013

Markets rebounded smartly this week on the back of low inflation data raising hope of RBI rate cut Sensex rising 4.2%, Nifty gaining 4.6% while CNX Midcap rising 2.76%

Monday - Sensex up 0.63%, Nifty up 0.72%, Midcap up 0.03%
March inflation data, WPI of 5.96%, which was lowest in 40 months, buoyed the market with the hopes of a rate cut from RBI. Also, inflation is expected to stay lower as crude oil prices have declined sharply in recent weeks.

Tuesday - Sensex up 2.11%, Nifty up 2.16%, Midcap up 1.39%
Markets continued to rise higher with previous day news of lower inflation data, which arrived during late trading hours, continued to instill confidence in expected RBI rate cut. Fall in gold prices also led to hopes of better current account deficit and benefited the market.

Wednesday - Sensex slightly down 0.07%, Nifty flat 0.00%, Midcap up slghtly by 0.23%
Two days of rally gave opportunity to book some profits.

Thursday - Sensex up 1.52%, Nifty up 1.66%, Midcap up 1.10%
Rate cut hopes on coming RBI meet on May 3, SC order to lift ban on nine iron ore mines and FII buyings led the sensex to cross 19K level.

Friday - Markets closed on occasion of Ram Navmi

Friday, April 12, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 8 - 12, 2013

Another bad week for the market with Sensex falling 1%, Nifty down 0.4% while CNX Midcap flat at -0.04%

Monday - Sensex down 0.1%, Nifty down 0.2%, Midcap up 0.1%
Market took some breath from the beating it received previous week. Mostly a quite session.

Tuesday - Sensex down 1.1%, Nifty down 0.9%, Midcap down 0.8%
A bad day for the markets with selling continued on most counters. Wipro tanked 12% as it traded without its non-IT business for the first time. FIIs continued to sell in anticipation of weak earnings.

Wednesday - Sensex up 1.0%, Nifty up 1.2%, Midcap up 0.9%
Bears rested to catch some breath as markets attempted to regain the lost ground with small rally. The investors, though mostly cautious continued to look for bargains from previous sessions' sell-offs.

Thursday - Sensex up 0.7%, Nifty up 0.6%, Midcap down 0.1%
Indian stocks rose to a one-week high before data forecast to show inflation eased to the slowest in more than three years, and ahead of a quarterly earnings reporting season that begins on Friday. Infosys gained 4% in anticipation of good results.

Friday - Sensex down 1.6%, Nifty down 1.2%, Midcap down 0.1%
Markets tanked with BSE IT falling 10% on weak results and revenue guidance of 6-10% growth in FY14 from Infosys disappointed the markets.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Apr 1 - 5, 2013

Quite a bad week for the market with Sensex falling 2%, Nifty down 2.3% while CNX Midcap flat at +0.3%

Monday - Sensex up 0.2%, Nifty up 0.4%, Midcap up 1.2%
Markets started the new fiscal on a slight positive note. Overall the global markets were weigh down by the war cries from North Korea. Indian markets were also up due to continuation of short coverings seen on the last day of previous fiscal.

Tuesday - Sensex up 0.9%, Nifty up 0.8%, Midcap up 1.6%
Markets gained as sensex regained 19K level due to strong optimism about reform process. RIL was one of the top gainers as it signed a telecom pact with RCom. Under the pact, RIL' telecom arm will hire nationwide optical fibre network of RCom for the roll-out of 4G services.

Wednesday - Sensex down 1.3%, Nifty down 1.3%, Midcap down 0.8%
Markets are back in red as FY13 ends and it starts preparing for 4Q results. Street is of the view that market might consolidate more in anticipation of earnings season.

Thursday - Sensex down 1.6%, Nifty down 1.7%, Midcap down 1.9%
Sensex slumped 200 points while Nifty closed down below its 200 DMA mark, as FIIs turned nervous before 4Q earnings season starts.

Friday - Sensex down 0.3%, Nifty down 0.4%, Midcap up 0.3%
Markets took a small respite from two continuous profit booking sessions of FIIs. Partial decontrol of sugar sector led to rally in sugar stocks. In a big boost for the sugar sector, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) agreed to partially reform the sector by doing away with regulated release mechanism. It has also removed obligation of levy on sugar mills.

Friday, March 29, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 25 - 29, 2013

Uneventful week for Indian markets with two day holidays for Holi and Good Friday.

Monday - Sensex down 0.50%, Nifty down 0.31%, Midcap down 0.18%
Markets stayed jittery as UPA's critical ally SP continued making noises about early elections keeping the markets nervous.

Tuesday - Sensex up 0.34%, Nifty up 0.14%, Midcap down 0.18%
Markets broke away from their recent trend of losses and posted some gains. Nothing eventful.

Wednesday - Holi

Thursday - Sensex up 0.70%, Nifty up 0.73%, Midcap up 1.52%
Markets posted a gain on the last day of fiscal 2013. Nothing eventful.

Friday - Good Friday

Friday, March 22, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 18 - 22, 2013

Quite a bad week for Indian markets. Sensex and Nifty fell by around 4%, while CNX Midcap declined by more than 5%.

Monday - Sensex down 0.69%, Nifty down 0.64%, Midcap down 0.3%
Markets ended down with not so optimistic view from RBI monetary policy review meeting next day. Broader sentiment was also negative due to Cyprus bail out plan of taxing its bank depositors made markets nervous. Moody's comments on warning on country's rating due to sustained food inflation also added to the woes of the market.

Tuesday - Sensex down 1.48%, Nifty down 1.53%, Midcap down 1.51%
DMK's decision to pull out from ruling UPA govt sent shockwaves through the market. RBI's decision to limit its repo rate cut to 25 bps and leaving CRR unchanged at 4% took the banks and realty firms down. RBI also sent a clear signal to the market to not to be too hopeful of a rate cut in the near future.

Wednesday - Sensex down 0.65%, Nifty down 0.90%, Midcap down 2.08%
Markets continued to be in red as the political climate turned uncertain. Markets were facing a real risk of early election which will put all the reforms initiated by UPA in limbo and attempts to bring down the fiscal deficit under control will have no air to breathe.

Thursday - Sensex down 0.48%, Nifty down 0.63%, Midcap down 1.22%
Markets continue to grapple with uncertain political climate, bank scandal and RBI's signal of keeping the monetary stance hawkish.

Friday - Sensex down 0.30%, Nifty down 0.13%, Midcap down 0.26%
Markets remained range bound for the last day of the week.