Sunday, July 13, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - July 07, 2014 - July 11, 2014

The most anticipated week since the general elections have concluded this Friday with Sensex experiencing a wild swing of more than 1200 points. Markets easily reached the all-time high status on Monday rising on hopes of “game-changing” budget, and ended the week in red after sky high hopes met the ground. To be fair, investors were expecting too much too soon. I will argue that FM did a good job of trying to prepare a solid fiscal ground for future growth. I bet that lot of subsidies would have got the axe if not for the fear of high inflation and weak monsoons. I will still give FM a modest 7/10. You can read my budget analysis here.

Sensex ended this week down by 3.6% while Nifty was down by 3.8% and Midcap down by 8.1%

Monday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Markets continued to roll on the expectations of better earnings expectations from Infosys and hopes of a fiscally prudent budget from Narendra Modi govt. FIIs have bought more than $10.5bn worth of equities so far this year.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 2.0%, Nifty down by 2.1%, Midcap down by 4.3%

Investors’ hopes were dashed as railway budget presented by govt. was devoid of any radical plan to turnaround railways. The budget also lacked specifics about much touted PPP route to raise funding for projects and was short of fresh ideas.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.5%, Nifty down by 0.5%, Midcap down by 1.6%

Markets continue to fall after railway budget turned out to be a bummer. Economy survey also highlighted the need for tough measures to shore up public finances and reduce inflation, raising expectations of a prudent and a non-populist budget.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%

Budget day saw wild swings in the Sensex and Nifty levels. Investors were struggling to get a handle over the slew of measures announced by newly appointed FM. While the budget speech nailed the fiscal consolidation part, it lacked any growth stimulating measures, which spooked the markets, which ended the eventful day in red.

Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 3.2%

Markets continued to fall as investors booked profits amidst the disappointment over what few analysts call a “mile wide and inch deep” budget. With budget now out of the way, investors have trained their guns on global markets, earnings season and monsoon.

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - May 26, 2014 - May 30, 2014

Elections are over. New govt is in place. The country is in midst of (sort of) growth crisis. Time has come for govt to roll up its sleeve.

Asia’s third largest economy grew 4.7% in FY14 vs. estimated 4.9% - second quarter of sub 5% growth. It is estimated that projects worth $105.1bn were shelved last year due to bureaucratic gridlock - highest in the past 18 years. Stressed loans in India amounted to $100bn or about 10% of all loans when debt-equity ratio of Indian firms has hit a two-decade high of 97.9%, according to Nomura.

Add to the mix, slowing global economy that is hemming in the country's exports growth and prospects of bleak monsoon, which might fire up the inflation fury. All these would lead to central bank staying hawkish on interest rates.

Sensex ended this week down by 1.9% while Nifty was down by 1.9% and Midcap down by 3.0%

Monday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap down by 2.0%
Investors booked profits as BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, two key benchmark indices loses steam. Midcaps declined by 2% after gaining more than 10% previous week. Recovery hopes from Modi govt have kept markets at elevated levels in recent weeks. Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy gained after court lifted a temporary stay on their merger.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap down by 1.0%
Markets continue to tumble as investors continued to book some profits and turned cautious as they wait for new policies to be announced and implemented from PMO. Newly appointed finance minister Arun Jaitley assured investors of stable policy environment.

Wednesday - Sensex flat, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Sensex ended the day flat while Nifty went up slightly as some value buying occurred on bourses after recent correction. Shipping corp surged 14% after company reported first net profit after Sept 2012 quarter as bulk shipping and liner businesses improved. ICRA also jumped 18% after Moody’s raised offer price to Rs. 2,400/share from Rs. 2, 000/share.

Thursday - Sensex down by 1.3%, Nifty down by 1.3%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest decline in nearly four months on the day of derivative expiry. This goes on to indicate that Modi euphoria might be showing sign of ebbing and investors will focus on actual deliverance now. Losses in blue chips were led by Infosys, which fell by 8% after it saw exit of another top management official from the company.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.3%
Investors continued to stay low as election rally loses momentum. Sensex and Nifty ended the week in red marking the first weekly fall over last one month.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - May 19, 2014 - May 23, 2014

As dust settles on election results, investors now keenly wait for the formation of new government structure, which PM elect Narendra Modi has indicated would be small and compact. Investors are all excited and the sentiment on the street is quite bullish – midcap gained more than 10% this week, largely due to strong performance from domestics. Also, see this chart.

Modi will take the oath of PM office on Monday along with his cabinet (hopefully) and we may see return of Arun Shourie to mainstream politics. He was widely known for his portfolio of disinvestment minister – when he ushered in slashing govt stakes from key companies in a bid to make them less bureaucratic, less corrupt and more competitive and efficient.

There are huge expectations with new govt, which has won this election on the agenda of development and reforms. A Reuters report cited this week that finance ministry is working on a proposal to cut welfare spending and reining in fiscal deficit to 3.8-3.9% of GDP in its first budget – hopefully will be presented in July. In my view, it is a prudent step – not only it will make govt. more fiscally responsible, it will also have a long-term impact on inflation.

Sensex ended this week up by 2.4% while Nifty was up by 2.3% and Midcap up by 10.2%

Monday - Sensex up by 1.0%, Nifty up by 0.8%, Midcap up by 4.4%
Markets continued their journey upwards, with Sensex and Nifty on their record-breaking spree. The domestics remained the central attraction to investors and sustained their rally. Gains were capped with exporters such as IT majors and pharma falling as rupee strengthened against the dollar.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Strong performance by domestics and midcaps continued as cabinet formation days draws nearer.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.3%, Nifty down by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.7%
Finally, benchmark indices took some breather as blue chips such as L&T retreated from recent strong gains a day after foreign investors turned net sellers for the first time in about a month.

Thursday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Expectations that Coal India might get split into smaller companies, led to a rally in the stock. The Nifty closed at a record high as investors resumed buying stocks of companies expected to benefit from an economic recovery. Titan surged after RBI allowed banks to provide gold loans to jewellery makers.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 2.0%
Markets rallied after SBI surged 10% after reporting decline in bad loans indicating worse may be over for banking sector in terms of asset quality. There was some rally in power stocks in expectations of reform measure from incoming government.

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - May 5, 2014 - May 9, 2014

And Sensex does it again. Indian markets driven by huge expectations from the coming (hopefully) BJP govt got a major spurt when PM candidate Narendra Modi declared on prime time that his party will form the most stable and strong govt in Indian history after Rajiv Gandhi. You can watch the full interview here. Any party to get a clean majority needs to score atleast 272 seats in general elections. Many exit polls and election survey predicts that there are chances that BJP (or current form of NDA) will do better than that.

A stable and decisive govt at the centre will certainly raise hopes of Indian investors, as trillions of rupees worth of projects are gathering dust in various govt departments waiting for approvals. Any govt formation that will expedite project approvals, unshackle the invested capital and get new (or better) jobs for our aspiring citizens is certainly welcome by public and businesses alike.

Sensex ended this week up by 2.6% while Nifty was up by 2.4% and Midcap up by 1.6%

Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty slightly up by 0.1%, Midcap flat
Markets recovered a little after continuously falling over past five sessions. Sentiment although remains bearish as regional shares falls on news that China's April PMI has contracted for fourth consecutive month.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.2%, Midcap up by 0.2%
Investors showed some confidence in Indian stocks as key benchmark indices rose to touch its week high. HSBC PMI index showed some improvement (48.5 in Apr vs. 47.5 in Mar) but still languished below 50 mark indicating contraction, not growth, keeping hopes of expansion in hiring activities at bay.

Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Sensex and Nifty plunged due to heavy selling in IT counters amid weak global cues and rupee hitting a month high against US dollar. Investors are keeping an eye on US Fed testimony in congress related to continuous decline in value of USD while continuously hoping that tensions in Ukraine do not escalate into a full-fledged war.

Thursday - Sensex up by 0.1%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap down by 0.2%
Investors continued to stay cautious as Indian general elections entered its last phase. BSE Sensex and Nifty recovered slightly from their recent lows as investors picked up some of the battered stocks. Indian market also got some sentiment uplift from dovish comments by US Fed Chair and upbeat Chinese trade data that suggested some signs of recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

Friday - Sensex up by 2.9%, Nifty up by 3.0%, Midcap up by 1.9%
Sensex and Nifty surprised all watchers as indices soared to touch their all time highs amidst weak trading sentiment ahead of election results. BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s interview previous night – where he declared that his party is getting clear majority probably lifted the mood of investors. Investors bought stocks in droves as country nears the closing of more bitterly contested general elections in its history on Monday.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

War of Words

BBC did a wonderful job at gathering recent speeches of our leading politicians viz Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal and making a word cloud to highlight the topics or issues these leaders have been shouting about in their speeches.

Don't think you'll need to pain your ears (and brains) on any other speech of theirs.

Narendra Modi



Rahul Gandhi


Arvind Kejriwal

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 31, 2014 - Apr 4, 2014

Elections are coming. This week was a crucial week for the market as it recorded the all time highs our benchmark indices have achieved. This week was also crucial, as its performance will be benchmarked against for comparison in near to medium term to analyze the hope rally. This week also marks the end of wait for the biggest exercise in world’s biggest democracy to begin. The results of this exercise will probably tell the investors – and rest of the country that whether optimism and hope rally did really have any strong legs or was it just another bubble based on euphoria around Narendra Modi.

Sensex and Nifty ended this week flat while Midcap was up by 1.5%

Monday - Sensex up by 0.2%, Nifty up by 0.1%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Indian stocks benchmark indices went up slightly and closed the fiscal year 2014 close to 20% higher than 2013 as strong foreign buying sparked a rally in stocks leveraged to domestic story. Market also expects RBI governor to hold interest rates on coming review meeting on Apr 1.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap down by 0.3%
Sensex and Nifty continued to record new highs as RBI left interest rates unchanged and brought a relief to investors by saying that it may avoid any more policy tightening in near term.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.5%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.5%
BSE Sensex touched another high on the back of heavy FII buying and election commission allowing RBI to grant new bank licenses. Potential bank license candidates led the gainers with IDFC and LIC Housing Finance surging 4% and 5% respectively.

Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.8%
Benchmark indices retreated from their all time highs as caution eclipse the optimism in the market as five-week election process draws closer. Investors booked profits as earnings season is also about to kick off with Infosys announcing its results on Apr 15.

Friday - Sensex down by 0.7%, Nifty down by 0.6%, Midcap flat
Market turned to profit booking on the last day of trading before election process begins (on Monday). IMF released a report saying that India’s economic mess is due to internal issues, strongly refuting the UPA govt’s claims blaming external macroeconomic environment for India’s problems.

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Weekly Market Commentary - Mar 3, 2014 - Mar 7, 2014

Both Sensex and Nifty ended this week at record all time highs. Investors, both domestic and foreign, are rushing in Indian markets to position themselves to benefit from an expected favorable election outcome. As I mentioned in my previous post, that favorable outcome is formation of stable NDA govt at the centre. With Congress losing its fight to retain prominence and AAP continues to use reality TV gimmicks to attract voters, NDA stock continues to rise.

As far as economics is concerned -- With India outperforming most of its emerging market peers in Feb, inflation declining, deficit numbers at four-year low and GDP growth bottoming out, India is definitely at a sweet spot.

Markets are expected to remain volatile in near term, as some people will book profits as markets rise while others will position themselves to benefit in a pre-election rally.

Sensex ended this week up 3.8%, Nifty was up by 4.0% while CNX Midcap was up by 4.1%.

Monday - Sensex down by 0.8%, Nifty down by 0.9%, Midcap down by 0.4%
War mongering in Ukraine sent investors’ mood around the world rolling down. World leaders unite in censuring the Russia’s move to send the forces in Crimea. Gold went up as fear and uncertainty rose. Indian markets ignored the improvement in HSBC PMI index – 52.5 in Feb vs. 51.4 in Jan, which indicated strongest manufacturing growth in last 12 months.

Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.2%, Midcap up by 1.3%
Benchmark indices bounced to their five-week highs as Russian President called back its troops back to their bases. Almost all sectoral indices ended up in green with cyclical leading the rally.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 0.3%, Nifty up by 0.5%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Markets continued their upward momentum. The benchmark Sensex closed just around 100 points away from its previous all time high. Investors have turned bullish ahead of general elections and have largely ignored the weakness in European markets.

Thursday - Sensex up by 1.1%, Nifty up by 1.1%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Benchmark indices soared past their earlier peak and set new record highs on the back of strong bullish investor sentiment as current account deficit numbers came at four-year low. With December CAD at 0.9% of GDP, exports picking up and gold imports subdued market is hopeful that the rupee will get a boost and FII inflows will increase.

Friday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Markets extended their winning streak and ended the week with all time record highs on the back of lower CAD numbers and increased fund flows from both domestic and foreign investors. Almost all indices ended the week in green barring IT and healthcare as investors churn their portfolios from export driven to domestic cyclical stories.