Saturday, September 7, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary - Sept 2 - Sept 6, 2013

Raghuram Rajan joined at a time when India is reeling under worsening deficit situation, falling forex reserves (lowest in three years) and deteriorating investment climate. Markets gave a warm welcome to his taking charge as it expects liberal policies and easing of monetary policies. Sensex zoomed 3.5% while Nifty gained 3.8% and CNX Midcap was up by 2.7% this week.

Monday - Sensex up by 1.4%, Nifty up by 1.4%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets continued their positive momentum as global stocks rose amid Chinese PMI data increase. Recent spate of reforms introduced in the economy by Finance Minister has buoyed the investor sentiment.

Tuesday - Sensex down by 3.4%, Nifty down by 3.8%, Midcap down by 2.3%
Ongoing crisis in Syria reached a new low as Russia reported missile firing by Israel on its ally. The news led to oil zooming, rupee falling and bloodbath in domestic markets. Indian market was also impacted by S&P credit downgrade warning of Indian economy owing to rising deficits and weaker currency, which again crossed 68 levels against the dollar. The rating agency said there is one in three chances of rating downgrade. To add to India’s misery, Goldman Sachs also cut India’s growth forecast to 4% from 6% earlier and predicted fall of rupee to 72 against the USD.

Wednesday - Sensex up by 1.8%, Nifty up by 2.0%, Midcap up by 1.0%
Markets recovered after previous day’s carnage with some value buying across the industries. The missile firing reports also turned out to be tests rather than war cry as Russian media reported. Realty stocks fell as RBI asks banks not to disburse the full loan amount for an under construction property. It said loan disbursal should be linked to construction schedule of the property.

Thursday – Sensex up by 2.2%, Nifty up by 2.7%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Markets gave a big welcome to Raghuram Rajan as he took charge of RBI. Rajan hit the ground running and announced steps to defend the falling value of Indian currency and measures to unshackle the overall economy. You can read his full speech here.

Friday – Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.6%, Midcap up by 0.6%
Overall market sentiment remained positive as RBI announcements indicated strengthening rupee and easing monetary tightening introduced by RBI recently.


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