VIP Industries - All my bags are packed and I am ready to go

What does the company do?

VIP Industry is a household name in India when it comes to luggage and travel accessories. It is India's largest luggage company (46% market share) and world's second largest company just behind Samsonite. The company has been in the business since 1971 and operates across categories of hard luggage (the ones with rigid exteriors) and soft luggage ( ones with fabric exterior) along with travel accessories (a toiletry bag for example). During recent times, company has transformed itself from a sleepy briefcase/suitcase, buy once and forget brand to a strong, flexible, trendy and more youthful brand.

How does company earn its money?

VIP has a formidable presence across all price ranges. It sells its luggage under Alfa brand in mass market segment in <Rs. 3000 range, Carlton in premium range > Rs. 6000 and other brands such as entry level Aristocrat, trendy backpack brand Skybags and most popular VIP brand in mid Rs. 3000 - 6000 segment. They also added a ladies handbag brand Caprese in their portfolio which is gaining good traction in the market achieving Rs. 100 crores sales target in 2018.

Company sources its products from China, third party vendors in India and manufactures own products in India and Bangladesh. It has recently started reducing its dependence on China as wage inflation there was hurting its gross margins. Moreover, VIP has less inventory control as they sourced finished goods from China. Move to Bangladesh although was started earlier, however, it has accelerated with the spread of coronavirus and govt. imposition on Chinese imports.

Imposition of GST has also been of great help as business is shifting from unorganised (~60% of total market) to organised retail and also presents a massive room for company to grow and gain market share.   

Industry

The Indian luggage industry is pegged at more than Rs. 8000 crores and has grown at CAGR of 13% in FY14-19. The organized market is oligopolistic in nature and is dominated by VIP, Samsonite and Safari Industries. Marriages and travelling are main drivers of its sales and rising trends in tourism and Indians travelling abroad has given a major thrust to the industry. With leisure travel taking a backseat, FY21 is going to be a challenge for the industry, although some signs of revival are seen in European countries.

The industry is slowly moving away from a utility based product to a lifestyle product which is leading to growth towards fashionable, premium products which are leading to better realizations. Many market surveys have indicated that customers are becoming brand conscious and are willing to spend few extra bucks to carry a brand and luggage design which suits their taste. Recent trends are also pointing towards increase in number of luggages per family as members travel with their individual luggage and also carry different luggage as per occassion (business travel vs. casual travel).

Competition

As GST implementation has reduced the cost advantage of unorganized players, the market share gains of organised players is inevitable. Among the organized players, leaving aside new entrants like Wildcraft, Da Milano etc, almost 90% of the market is split among VIP, Samsonite and Safari. These brands compete in almost all segments, with Safari having stronger presence in mass market segment and Samsonite in premium segment. VIP earns better margins than Safari (the only other listed player in the industry), which is only going to increase as cost base move from China to Bangladesh. The return profile of VIP (5y RoE avg of 23% and 5y RoCE avg of 34%) is also better than Safari (5y RoE avg of 6% and 5y RoCE avg of 10%). 

Past Performance and Look ahead

VIP Industries has shown decent revenue growth of 12% during FY11-19 period (10% CAGR in FY11-20) due to its established brands, strong distribution network and more than 1500 SKUs. Covid induced lockdown has hampered sales everywhere with 1Q21 sales being only 5% of what company budgeted and company shutting down stores, the current FY looks challenging for the company and it is expected that FY21 sales maybe 20 - 30% of FY19 sales.

Company is expected to improve its margin profile as sourcing from China was mostly of finished goods which generated lower margins than manufactured goods from Bangladesh and India.  Govt policy, rising wage inflation in China and Covid situation has compelled the company to reduce its dependence on China. In current year, due to reduced demand, the company has to hardly import anything from China. Once the demand side recover, VIP would be able to earn better margins from its products.

To overcome this reduced demand scenario, the firm has plans to borrow around Rs.300 Crores to have a war chest for these tough times. Although company is zero net debt till the end of July 2020, it has prepared for the scenario where it honours its commitments to its creditors and debtors and sustain for few months without revenue in worst case scenario.

Conclusion - Accumulate. Current Market Cap: ~Rs. 4000 crores.

As Morgan Housel pointed out that Jeff Bezos' success lies not in predicting what will change in next 10 years, but what will remain the same (like fast delivery of better products at lower costs). Same principle applies to travel industry and everything that goes and grows with it. Traveling and exploring new places is a basic human need and sooner than later, people are going to move out and travel at the first opportunity they will get. 

As the market bounces back, so will the aspiration of people. India, with its young population, rising living standards, many first time travelers and brand consciousness provides a huge growth opportunity to luggage players. Replacement frequency for luggage bags has also dropped from 4-5 years to 2-3 years now. 

Organised players like VIP Industries have been constantly upgrading their offerings and improving better after-sales services which will help them wrest market share from unorganized players. With unorganized players still holding ~80% share in volume terms, the opportunity size for VIP is huge.

As the world slowly starts emerging out of Covid 19 induces lockdown, VIP industry is a good proxy play on recovery of travel and tourism industry in India. With its better distribution network, strong brand and ability to earn better returns on capital, VIP is a long term buy. 

Risks related to travel bans, second wave of Covid 19 and inability of the company to gain market share when market recovers can create headwinds for the company. It is prudent for investors to closely monitor the travel related announcements, any commentary on operating performance from the company or any other industry development that can affect the growth prospects.  

Atul Auto - Waiting for Normal Times

What does the company do?

Atul Auto is Gujarat's no.1 Three-Wheeler (3W) manufacturer. It has, in past few years, spread its wings across the country with 200 primary dealerships and 120 sub dealerships across 20 states in India. It manufactures and sell 3W in both Goods and Passengers segment in domestic market as well as other developing countries in Africa, Latin America and SE Asia.

How does it earn money?

Atul sells 3W under the brands of Atul Gem, Atul Shakti, Atul Elite etc. It derives more than 90% of its revenue from domestic market. Passenger sub-segment forms large share of its global sales (56%), followed by Cargo segment (40%) and spares and e-rickshaw forms the rest. 

Atul Auto has a manufacturing plant located in Rajkot with an installed capacity of 60,000 units where it achieved capacity utilization of 83.59% in 2019. With company running its plants at peak capacity, the growth in sales will require expansion in its manufacturing capacity. For this, they have acquired land near Ahmedabad and are almost 90% finished with building a plant with another 60,000 units capacity (in two phases of 30,000 each). 

Although the company has funded the expansion from its internal accruals, the plant delivery has been really slow with management acquiring the land in 2014 and promised to complete it by 2017 end. We are almost half way through 2020 and the plant is not ready yet for commercial production. 

With ongoing pandemic situation, existing plant utilization has fallen off the cliff to less than 30%, it is expected that management will wait wait for demand to recover a bit before getting the second plant fully operational.  

Three Wheeler Industry

India is the largest manufacturer, consumer and exporter of 3W in the world. In FY2019, we produced and sold more than 1M 3Ws. The industry has been growing at a pace of 9-10% every year. 

3W fulfills a critical last mile connectivity function in the transportation market. Many Indians use 3W for intra-city travel and transport of goods. The countries with developing infrastructure and not so good road conditions are potential export target markets. 

In 2020, pandemic has led to shut down of many plants and borders completely or partially for several months. The numbers for this year will naturally come down. It is expected that industry condition will get normal by the end of the year.

As many fleet owners who have financed their purchase either through banks or NBFCs, and have incurred almost zero revenue due to Covid induced lockdown, some stress is expected in the system. It is also expected that by the second half of the year, mobility options for many people in urban areas is bound to shift from large public transport systems like (local trains, buses) to taxis and autos. This may led to some demand recovery for 3W as the vehicle for choice for most cost sensitive customers. 

However, in rural or tier 2/3 cities, where 3W carry load of many passengers, there remains few concerns. As panic conditions around the pandemic subsides, it is expected that the rural market will also return to normalcy by the end of year. 

Also, any govt stimulus, either in terms of lowering of interest rates which will reduce the cost of financing of 3W or any govt stimulus to boost capital goods/infra demand in the economy bodes positive for the sector.

Competition

Bajaj auto is a clear market leader in 3W segment with 57% market share. Other major players in the market are Piaggio (~24% market share), TVS (~2%), M&M (~9%). 

Market is clearly very competitive and Atul Auto is facing challenges in retaining whatever little market share from leaders like Bajaj Auto who have improved their grab from 47% in FY16 to 57% in FY20 where Atul has lost from 8% to 6%. 

Main reason for this market share loss has been Bajaj Auto's aggressive focus on 3W Goods segment where it was little apprehensive earlier and avoided entering. Bajaj Auto has improved its market share from 1% in FY16 to 27% in FY20 and took away share from Piaggio (from 53% to 42%) which is market leader in Goods segment and Atul Auto whose market share went down from 21% to 16% in five years.    

Past Performance

Atul Auto has done really well in the past with 10 yr (2009-2019) average growth rate being more than 20%. The firm has grown its revenues in almost all years except the year of demonetization (FY17) where it recorded a decline of 10% and FY20 (-6%) where Covid-19 has negatively impacted revenues across all sectors. 

With lockdown continuing in many major cities and Atul Auto's plant operating at less than 50% utilization, the revenues for FY21 are also expected to decline by atleast 40-50%. It remains to be seen, how the firm defends its market share once the market is fully open. 

Before the Covid induced lockdown happened, the firm was operating at almost full capacity, and was able to sell almost all its produce. With the new plant up and running maybe in last quarter of FY21, it is expected that Atul Auto will be able to bounce back to its 2019 volume very quickly. 

The firm has solid balance sheet and financial profile. The firm so far has managed to stay debt free and boasts of return on capital in excess of 30%. It also has enough liquidity to overcome any short term crisis.  The Company has pre-approved bank credit facilities of Rs.15 crores from IDBI Bank Limited and $3.50mn from EXIM Bank in the form of cash credit, working capital demand loan and pre/ post shipment credit to meet the requirement of working capital in future.

Look Ahead

The firm also looks reasonable priced at an earning multiple of 6.5x and price to book of slightly more than 1.1x. The stock is depressed due to uncertainity related to Covid and auto industry move to convert their vehicles from BS-IV to BS-VI compliant in addition to the fact it operates in a very competitive market and faces challenge in gaining market share.

To overcome these challenges, Atul Auto is preparing to be future ready as it builds a strong product portfolio with e-auto and e-rickshaws, petrol 3W for export market and urban areas, grows its dealer network and availability of help to its domestic customers in financing their purchase through its NBFC associate Khushbu Finance Pvt Ltd. 

The firm is also building a network of service attendants "Atul Sahay" for providing direct technical assistance in the servicing and maintenance of vehicles. The growth will be mentored by a prudent and debt averse management and the firm will definitely be able to strengthen its return profile.

Risks to look out for is delay in monthly sales recovery due to lockdown or restriction in goods and labour movement, restricted lending by financial institutions, adverse govt policy, challenges with export markets and any further than planned delays in operationalizing the second plant.

Conclusion

Atul Auto is a small horse in a very competitive 3W market race. It has been able to slowly strengthen its position outside its home market, Gujarat. Management seems to be conservative and prudent with their capital and ambitious enough to compete with likes of Bajaj Auto, Piaggio and M&M in both domestic and export market. 

Atul Auto has a lot of headroom to grow but gaining market share will be a challenge. The firm has a solid balance sheet, returns and liquidity profile and looks set to regain its growth once the markets return to normalcy.   

At the current valuation of 6.5x P/E and 1.1x of P/BV, the stock does look attractive and risk reward profile looks promising. It will be wise for an investor to continue monitor the monthly sales numbers to get the direction on recovery and also keep an eye on the developments in auto industry as it transitions towards greater safety and greener environment.

Raghuram Rajan on Indian Economy

Recently, Raghuram Rajan, former RBI governor, in the India Today cover story explained the issues that ails India right now. He also discussed few of his ideas that current establishment can ponder upon to get out of the mess it is in.

For the benefit of my readers, I will jot down the key highlights of his article.

What ails India?

• Growth is slowing
• Govt has less room to spend more as fiscal space is constrained
• Household and domestic debt is rising
• Financial sector is in stress
• Industry is not spending
• Unemployment is rising

What brought us here?

• Govt inherited a lot of issues when it won power back in 2014
• Land acquisition challenges, scams, coal and gas issues, bureaucratic hurdles stalled many infrastructure projects
• Power producers face challenges as debt ridden power discos delayed payments
• Bad loans on bank's balance sheet rose, as a result
• Govt misguided intervention in agriculture for decades created its own problems
• Rather than focusing on value creation for farmers, all governments took easy paths of subsidies, incentives, loan waivers.

Govt attempts to tame the beast

• Initially focussed on taming the fiscal spending and inflation
• Brought landmark resolutions like Insolvency and bankruptcy Code (IBC) to clean up the bad debt mess
• GST reforms to unify the Indian market and improve tax compliance
• RERA to clean up real estate sector 

Second Order Issues

• Although all steps in right directions, govt miscalculated the second order effects.
• Promoters stopped placing bets using bank loans as they worry they may lose their firm in bankruptcy
• Banks stopped lending as they become more risk averse and ever greening of loans was heavily discouraged
• Industry confidence nose dived as govt seemed aggressive on penalizing the egregious promoters
• Unemployment rose as investment faltered across the country and businesses suffered from lack of demand/confidence

The way forward

• Govt/ businesses need to find new avenues of risk capital by going more aggressive on reforms and attract foreign capital to invest
• Encourage domestic institutions: Insurance companies and pension funds to take more risk
• De-risk the projects by providing faster clearance for land acquisition and other processes.
• Improve stability in the current policy regimes; constantly tweaking the rules and tariff structure creates uncertainty
• Economic vision and priorities should not get sacrificed to social and political motivations of current establishment
• RBI needs to assess NBFCs and brings regulatory certainty in the system; need to separate out the goods apples from the basket
• Need to create funds for credible developers to finish their projects faster
• Centre and state have to come together to resolve issues in power sector and maintain the sanctity of the contracts.
• Labour act needs serious reform
• India should not jump to reduce personal taxes to boost consumption - to stay fiscally prudent
• Also, temptation needs to be avoided to raise deposit insurance to 5 lakhs, as some have suggested, before a serious audit of entire banking sector esp. cooperative banks is finished.

Billionaires vs. Big Oil

Hat Tip: Fortune