According to the Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas, India imported about 13% of its crude oil requirements from Iraq last year and this year was planning to take that figure to 20%. Iraq is the second largest crude producer in the OPEC group. With only half of the supplies covered so far, India has to rush to other players to secure oil – likely at higher prices now. According to one govt. estimate, oil price can rise to $120 per barrel for several months and may hit the govt. budget by atleast $3.3bn.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.5% while Nifty was down by 0.4% and Midcap down by 0.7%
Monday - Sensex down by 0.1%, Nifty down by 0.1%, Midcap up by 0.4%
Sensex and Nifty continue to trade lower as Iraq crisis weigh on investor’s mind. Brent rose to $113 per barrel, a nine-month high as ISIS strengthens its position in Iraq. Rise in crude prices coupled with weak monsoon can spell trouble for India. WPI for May came in about 6% - five month high due to higher food and fuel costs.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 1.3%, Nifty up by 1.3%, Midcap up by 1.3%
While rising oil prices has put Indian finance ministry in a difficult position, such is not the case with oil and gas companies. Indian upstream sector gained as investors lapped up shares on expectations of margin expansion. Sentiment on the street remained positive with investors buying in every decline.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 1.1%, Nifty down by 1.0%, Midcap down by 0.9%
Rising crude prices seems to make everybody apart from upstream companies very nervous. Sensex and Nifty slumped again as rising crude prices raised concerns about higher inflation and govt.’s finances. Rising crude prices have also hushed the chatter about interest rate cuts.
Thursday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Oil and Gas stocks slumped on concerns that India may allow higher gas prices only for incremental output from existing fields. Brent crude also hit a further high of $115 per barrel as fighting intensifies in Iraq.
Friday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 0.7%
Sensex and Nifty continued to trade lower as investors continued to focus on Iraq issue in short term. Market is expecting major reforms in the first budget of Modi govt. but situation in Iraq has made things little difficult with rising crude prices feeding into higher inflation and deficits.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 9, 2014 - June 13, 2014
Friday slump in markets due to rising oil prices amid continued violence in Iraq may jeopardize the best laid plans of Modi govt. Not only the rising crude oil prices will have debilitating effect on subsidies, it will also let in more inflation.
All this will tie FM’s hands who wants to install some sort of fiscal tightening and do away with lot of welfare schemes. Any attempt to clamp down welfare spending during rising inflation environment may not go down well with general public.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.7% while Nifty was down by 0.5% and Midcap down by 2.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty continued their ride up as anticipation of reforms build up. Some rally was seen in fertilizer stocks after govt disclosed plans to raise the price of urea by at least 10%.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty unchanged while Midcap down by 0.5%
Indices took a breather as investors booked profits in recently rallied names. Yet, the sentiment on the street remain bullish as market heads into first budget of Narendra Modi govt in first week of July.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Markets snapped after touching all time highs. Investors booked profits in infrastructure and capital goods stocks which has outperformed recently. FIIs continued to show confidence in Indian equities and bought $115.2mn worth of shares on Tuesday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty showed some gains in anticipation of positive economic data release later in the day. A Reuters survey found economists expecting CPI easing to 8.4% in May vs. April number of 8.59%.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Rising violence in Iraq led to scare in the market with crude oil rising to its nine-month high taking a toll on Indian stocks also. Sensex and Nifty both slumped 1.4% as investors fear rise in subsidies and trade deficits if high crude oil price persists. There was a bit of positive news from the economy as industrial growth rebounded. Retail inflation also dropped to 8.4%, a three-month low - signs of an economic revival that could offset the threat of patchy summer rains.
All this will tie FM’s hands who wants to install some sort of fiscal tightening and do away with lot of welfare schemes. Any attempt to clamp down welfare spending during rising inflation environment may not go down well with general public.
Sensex ended this week down by 0.7% while Nifty was down by 0.5% and Midcap down by 2.8%
Monday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.9%, Midcap up by 1.1%
Sensex and Nifty continued their ride up as anticipation of reforms build up. Some rally was seen in fertilizer stocks after govt disclosed plans to raise the price of urea by at least 10%.
Tuesday - Sensex and Nifty unchanged while Midcap down by 0.5%
Indices took a breather as investors booked profits in recently rallied names. Yet, the sentiment on the street remain bullish as market heads into first budget of Narendra Modi govt in first week of July.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.4%, Nifty down by 0.4%, Midcap down by 1.2%
Markets snapped after touching all time highs. Investors booked profits in infrastructure and capital goods stocks which has outperformed recently. FIIs continued to show confidence in Indian equities and bought $115.2mn worth of shares on Tuesday.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.4%, Nifty up by 0.3%, Midcap up by 0.5%
Sensex and Nifty showed some gains in anticipation of positive economic data release later in the day. A Reuters survey found economists expecting CPI easing to 8.4% in May vs. April number of 8.59%.
Friday - Sensex down by 1.4%, Nifty down by 1.4%, Midcap down by 2.6%
Rising violence in Iraq led to scare in the market with crude oil rising to its nine-month high taking a toll on Indian stocks also. Sensex and Nifty both slumped 1.4% as investors fear rise in subsidies and trade deficits if high crude oil price persists. There was a bit of positive news from the economy as industrial growth rebounded. Retail inflation also dropped to 8.4%, a three-month low - signs of an economic revival that could offset the threat of patchy summer rains.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Revealed: The world's cheapest stock markets
Source: Telegraph UK
Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz
Cape ratio - P/E ratio with a twist. Instead of using earnings over 12 months, this valuation measure takes the average earnings figure over the previous 10 years. In doing so the Cape ratio strips out short-term anomalies.
Click on the chart for bigger version.
Hat tip: Barry Ritholtz
Cape ratio - P/E ratio with a twist. Instead of using earnings over 12 months, this valuation measure takes the average earnings figure over the previous 10 years. In doing so the Cape ratio strips out short-term anomalies.
Click on the chart for bigger version.
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Weekly Market Commentary - June 2, 2014 - June 6, 2014
Another week of record highs on Indian bourses. Sensex and Nifty are moving up as bears struggle to find any negative catalyst to put a brake on upward journey.
Modi govt has taken the complete charge of New Delhi and is urgently seeking to reboot the economy. It has initiated and publicly announced its intentions to completely overhaul the existing structure of subsidies and doles and get fiscal house in order.
All eyes on budget session now; which will begin in first week of July.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 4.9% and Midcap up by 8.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.8%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Sensex and Nifty gained as PSU banks rallied on hopes the govt will rationalize the shareholding structure by selling some of its holdings. Investors seems to have shrugged off release of another sub-5% GDP growth numbers as they keenly await RBI’s policy review meeting on Tuesday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Key benchmark indices gained as RBI held rates steady and toned down its hawkish stance hinting at a rate cut in coming review meeting. RBI also allowed more funds into the system for lending by cutting down on SLR by 50bps. Sugar stocks rallied on expectations that govt might push blending ethanol in petrol and increase the import duty to support local prices.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty retreated from their record closing highs as IT companies fell on concerns of stronger rupee. Rupee has gained around 4% so far this year and is among the best performers among the Asian currencies. Fertilizer stocks rallied on hopes that the govt will soon clear outstanding subsidy payments. Insurance companies also some rally on the expectations that govt will raise FDI limit to 49% from 26%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Sensex and Nifty made another record closing high as resource stocks led by Sesa Sterlite gained on positive momentum based on revival of Indian economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Another day of record close high of both Sensex and Nifty. Investors continued to stay bullish over the policy reforms (about to be) initiated by govt. FIIs continue to invest heavily in Indian markets with total purchase so far being $8.3bn this year.
Modi govt has taken the complete charge of New Delhi and is urgently seeking to reboot the economy. It has initiated and publicly announced its intentions to completely overhaul the existing structure of subsidies and doles and get fiscal house in order.
All eyes on budget session now; which will begin in first week of July.
Sensex ended this week up by 4.9% while Nifty was up by 4.9% and Midcap up by 8.0%
Monday - Sensex up by 1.9%, Nifty up by 1.8%, Midcap up by 2.2%
Sensex and Nifty gained as PSU banks rallied on hopes the govt will rationalize the shareholding structure by selling some of its holdings. Investors seems to have shrugged off release of another sub-5% GDP growth numbers as they keenly await RBI’s policy review meeting on Tuesday.
Tuesday - Sensex up by 0.7%, Nifty up by 0.7%, Midcap up by 0.9%
Key benchmark indices gained as RBI held rates steady and toned down its hawkish stance hinting at a rate cut in coming review meeting. RBI also allowed more funds into the system for lending by cutting down on SLR by 50bps. Sugar stocks rallied on expectations that govt might push blending ethanol in petrol and increase the import duty to support local prices.
Wednesday - Sensex down by 0.2%, Nifty down by 0.2%, Midcap up by 1.6%
Sensex and Nifty retreated from their record closing highs as IT companies fell on concerns of stronger rupee. Rupee has gained around 4% so far this year and is among the best performers among the Asian currencies. Fertilizer stocks rallied on hopes that the govt will soon clear outstanding subsidy payments. Insurance companies also some rally on the expectations that govt will raise FDI limit to 49% from 26%.
Thursday - Sensex up by 0.9%, Nifty up by 1.0%, Midcap up by 1.4%
Sensex and Nifty made another record closing high as resource stocks led by Sesa Sterlite gained on positive momentum based on revival of Indian economy.
Friday - Sensex up by 1.5%, Nifty up by 1.5%, Midcap up by 1.7%
Another day of record close high of both Sensex and Nifty. Investors continued to stay bullish over the policy reforms (about to be) initiated by govt. FIIs continue to invest heavily in Indian markets with total purchase so far being $8.3bn this year.
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